Inflation Accelerates More Than Forecast to 8.98% Adding Pressure on Rates

India’s inflation accelerated more than economists estimated in March as the cost of fuel and manufactured goods rose, putting pressure on policy makers to raise interest rates in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The benchmark wholesale-price index rose 8.98 percent from a year earlier after an 8.31 percent gain in February, the commerce ministry said in a statement in New Delhi today. That exceeded all 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, where the median forecast was for an 8.36 percent increase.

Expansion in India’s $1.3 trillion economy has boosted consumer demand and spurred manufacturing, car sales and credit growth, stoking price risks and prompting the central bank to raise rates eight times since early 2010. Inflation in the first quarter has exceeded the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast that price increases would be 8 percent by the end of March this year.

“Inflation is going to remain uncomfortably high this year,” said Leif Eskesen, Singapore-based chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc. “The RBI needs to raise rates more aggressively and we are looking at three more rate increases this year.”

Stocks dropped the most in seven weeks, with the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index falling 1.6 percent. The yield on the 8.08 percent bond due in August 2022 rose 4 basis points to 8.24 percent, the highest level since Feb. 8, as of the 5 p.m. close in Mumbai. The rupee strengthened 0.4 percent to 44.33 a dollar, paring the week’s loss to 0.6 percent.
Rate Increase

Rising oil and commodity costs and sustained economic growth are escalating pressure on Asian central banks to boost borrowing costs. China on April 5 raised rates for the fourth time since mid-October. Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand also increased borrowing costs this year to curb inflation, and Singapore said yesterday it would allow further currency gains.

China’s economy grew a more-than-estimated 9.7 percent in the first quarter and inflation accelerated in March to the fastest pace since 2008, with consumer prices rising 5.4 percent from a year earlier, a report showed today.

Reserve Bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on March 17 increased the repurchase rate by a quarter point to 6.75 percent after raising the inflation forecast for the second time since late January, when he estimated it at 7 percent by March end. The central bank’s next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for May 3.
Food Inflation

“In the absence of a strong supply response, increasing demand will inevitably lead to higher prices,” Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said April 5. He said a “monetary response is warranted” should demand exceed supply and stoke inflation.

Manufactured-products inflation was 6.21 percent in March, compared with 4.94 percent in February, today’s report showed. Fuel and power prices rose 12.92 percent, compared with 11.49 percent the previous month. India relies on imports to meet three-quarters of its annual energy needs.

Food prices rose 8.28 percent in the week to April 2, compared with 9.18 percent in the previous week, the commerce ministry said in a separate report today.

India’s economy may expand as much as 9.25 percent in the year ending March 31, 2012, the finance ministry said in February.
Production Growth

Still, India’s industrial production growth unexpectedly slowed to 3.6 percent in February, a report showed this week.

“Even as industrial production continues to be volatile, other indicators, such as the latest purchasing managers’ index, direct and indirect tax collections, merchandise exports and bank credit, suggest that the growth momentum persists,” the central bank said in the March 17 statement.

India’s industrial output has fluctuated since May, when it registered a 12.2 percent expansion. The growth eased to 7.2 percent in June, rebounded to 15.1 percent in July, slid to 4.9 percent in September and then recovered in October, according to government data.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (MSIL), the nation’s biggest carmaker, plans to boost capacity by 21 percent in the current financial year as part of investment plans totaling as much as 40 billion rupees ($900 million), Chief Financial Officer Ajay Seth said in an interview on April 6. The company’s sales climbed to a record in March.

Recent data show lenders are giving loans at a faster pace than the central bank’s target. Commercial loans rose 21.4 percent from the previous year as of March 25, more than the 20 percent rate prescribed by the Reserve Bank of India.
Rising Salaries

Manufacturing grew for a 24th straight month, with the purchasing managers’ index holding unchanged at 57.9 in March from February, when it accelerated at the fastest pace in three months, HSBC Holdings and Markit Economics said April 1.

Salaries in India this year may rise the most in the Asia- Pacific region, fueling consumer demand, a survey by Aon Hewitt LLC showed March 8. Spending under the government’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act of 2005 has surged almost fourfold to 399 billion rupees.

Demand may find more support from Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s budget for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2012, which plans to spur spending and exempt incomes below 180,000 rupees from tax, higher than the previous threshold of 160,000 rupees.