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Friday, October 7, 2011

India’s Sensex Index Climbs to One-Week High on Exports Outlook By Santanu Chakraborty - Oct 7, 2011

India’s benchmark stock index rose to its highest level in a week as the outlook for Indian exporters improved and after Citigroup Inc. raised the rating for the country’s equities.

Infosys Ltd., the second-largest software maker, paced gains among exporters. Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., the country’s largest copper producer, rose 8.6 percent after prices of the metal rallied on the London Stock Exchange. State Bank of India (SBIN) Ltd., the nation’s largest lender, rebounded 2 percent from a two-year low after an Economic Times report cited Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri as saying the bank will cut its holdings of government bonds and boost lending to companies.

The BSE India Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 2.8 percent to 16,232.54 at the 3:30 p.m. close in Mumbai. The volume of Sensex shares traded was 58 percent higher than the six-month daily average. The gauge has dropped 13 percent in the three months to Sept. 30, the worst performance since the last quarter of 2008, amid concern record interest-rate increases by the central bank will hurt growth as Europe’s debt crisis worsens and the U.S. economy slows.

The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange of India gained 2.9 percent to 4,888.05. Indian markets were closed for a holiday yesterday.

India may introduce incentives for exporters to cushion them from a slowdown in developed markets, the Press Trust of India reported. Citigroup raised its rating on Indian stocks to “neutral” based on a decline in global commodity prices, lower share valuations and a short-term peak in borrowing costs, according to a report dated yesterday.
Exporter Incentives

“India has underperformed too much relative to developed markets in the last 20 to 30 days and the wide gap has to narrow,” Samir Arora, founder of hedge fund Helios Capital Management Pte, said in a Bloomberg UTV interview today. “If the world calms down, India could have a decent rally.”

Global stocks climbed after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday the ECB will resume covered- bond purchases and reintroduce yearlong loans for banks. The European Commission is pushing for a coordinated capital injection for banks to shield them from the fallout of a potential Greek default.

India’s economy may expand 7.9 percent in the year ending March 31, lower than the 8.2 percent growth estimated in April, the Asian Development Bank said in a report on Sept. 14.

Shares of exporters rallied after the Press Trust of India cited an unidentified official as saying India may introduce measures including interest subsidies to protect them from the impact of faltering markets. Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma will likely announce the steps on Oct. 13, the report said.
‘Real Risk’

Infosys jumped 2.5 percent to 2,508.7 rupees. Wipro Ltd. (WPRO), the third biggest software exporter, rallied 1.8 percent to 333.8 rupees.

“It certainly sounds like policy makers in Europe are understanding the situation with the banking system and it looks like they are getting more willing to recapitalize the banks,” said Belinda Allen, a senior investment analyst at Colonial First State Global Asset Management in Sydney, which oversees about $145 billion. “That has been a positive step, but we haven’t seen that yet. I think it is a real risk until we see an announcement.”
Sugar Exports

Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd. (SHRS) paced gains among makers of the sweetener after Food Minister K.V. Thomas said Oct. 5 that the government may allow 500,000 metric tons of exports by the end of this month and a similar quantity by Nov. 30. Shree Renuka jumped 3.3 percent to 52.10 rupees and Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. (BRCM), the country’s second-biggest maker, climbed 2.7 percent to 45.80 rupees.

Sterlite Industries rose to 113.5 rupees while Hindalco Industries Ltd. (HNDL), the second-biggest copper maker, increased 4.8 percent to 125.9 rupees.

Copper traders and analysts are the most bullish since August on speculation prices at a one-year low will spur China, the world’s largest buyer, to build stockpiles. Ten of 15 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg expect copper to rise next week and 5 predicted a drop.

State Bank of India gained to 1,752.3 rupees. The bank will also insure trade credit given to exporters, the Economic Times report said. Moody’s Investors Service cut Mumbai-based State Bank’s financial-strength rating this week, saying the highest interest rates among Asia’s biggest economies and slowing growth may make it harder for people to repay loans.

Among other lenders, ICICI Bank Ltd. (ICICIBC) jumped 5.8 percent to 824.45 rupees while HDFC Bank Ltd. (HDFCB) rose 2.6 percent to 450 rupees.
Default Risk

The risk of holding India’s debt is rising the most in two years amid concern higher borrowing costs will spur an increase in bad loans, credit-default swaps on bonds of the nation’s largest state-run bank show.

Bharti Airtel Ltd. (BHARTI), the country’s biggest mobile services company, fell 3.1 percent to 354.8 rupees after Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s local brokerage unit, in a research note dated Oct. 6, cut its share price estimates by 2 percent, citing anticipated higher foreign-exchange losses.

Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has increased the repurchase rate by a total of 350 basis points starting mid- March 2010, the fastest round of increases since the central bank was set up in 1935, to contain prices that are rising the fastest among the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The Reserve Bank of India last raised its repurchase rate on Sept. 16 to 8.25 percent from 8 percent, after India’s inflation climbed to a 13-month high of 9.78 percent in August. The RBI meets Oct. 25 for its next policy review.
Food Inflation

India’s food inflation accelerated to a three-week high, maintaining pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates further.

An index measuring wholesale prices of agricultural products gained 9.41 percent in the week ended Sept. 24 from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said in a statement in New Delhi today. It rose 9.13 percent the previous week.

Manufacturing expanded in September at the slowest pace in 2 1/2 years, a report showed on Oct. 3, a sign that higher borrowing costs are cooling demand. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 50.4 last month from 52.6 in August, HSBC Holdings and Markit Economics said in the report. That’s the weakest reading since March 2009. A number above 50 indicates expansion.

The Sensex has retreated 21 percent this year amid concern the European crisis and slowing U.S. economic growth may compound the effects of record rate increases on corporate profits. Companies in the Sensex trade at 13.7 times estimated profits, down from 21.5 times in March 2010. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is valued at 9.4 times.

Earnings for 47 percent of Sensex companies lagged behind analysts’ estimates in the quarter ended June, compared with about 33 percent in the previous three months.

Overseas investors sold a net 9.66 billion rupees ($196 million) of Indian equities on Oct. 4, taking their outflow this year to 23.5 billion rupees, according to data on the website of the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

To contact the reporter on this story: Santanu Chakraborty in Mumbai at schakrabor11@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Darren Boey at dboey@bloomberg.net
®2011 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Stocks, Euro Advance as Treasuries Drop By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth - Oct 6, 2011

U.S. stocks rallied for a third day, commodities gained and Treasuries slid as European officials detailed plans to tame the sovereign debt crisis and reports on retail sales and jobless claims bolstered optimism in the economy. The euro reversed an earlier drop versus the dollar.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.8 percent to 1,164.97 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller U.S. stocks extended a three-day advance to 11 percent, its best since 2009. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 2.7 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields added 10 basis points to 1.99 percent. The euro rose 0.7 percent to $1.3439 after losing 0.8 percent. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities jumped 2.5 percent as oil increased 3.7 percent to $82.59 a barrel.

American equities extended a global rally after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB will resume covered-bond purchases and reintroduce yearlong loans for banks, while defying calls for an interest-rate cut and acknowledging “downside risks” to the economy have intensified. The European Commission is pushing for a coordinated capital injection for banks to shield them from the fallout of a potential Greek default.

“People have priced in a Lehman II type of situation,” Brian Barish, Denver-based president of Cambiar Investors LLC, which oversees about $8 billion, said in a telephone interview. “You start to hear some credible stuff on European bank recapitalization. They will do what they’ve got to do to prevent a Lehman from happening. There’s a good chance we might’ve had a bottom in stocks.”
Covered Bonds

The 2.5 trillion-euro market for covered bonds -- assets backed by mortgages or public-sector loans -- underpins much of Europe’s real estate lending, which almost ground to a halt in the wake of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in September 2008.

U.S. stocks also climbed after claims for unemployment benefits rose less than forecast last week to a level that shows the pace of dismissals may be slowing. Applications for jobless benefits climbed by 6,000 to 401,000, Labor Department figures showed. Economists projected 410,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The monthly average dropped to the lowest level since the end of August.

Government data tomorrow are forecast to show employers added 55,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, according to the median estimates.
Bear Market Averted

The S&P 500 has rebounded 6 percent since Oct. 3, when it closed within 1 percent of a level that would have marked a bear-market plunge of 20 percent from its April peak. The S&P GSCI commodities gauge is up 5.3 percent in two days, its best back-to-back advance since May, and has trimmed its drop from this year’s high to 20 percent. Treasury yields have increased after demand for safer assets dragged the 10-year note’s rate to a record low of 1.67 percent on Sept. 23. The Dollar Index has slipped about 1.1 percent since Oct. 4, when it reached the highest level since January.

Indexes of financial, commodity and consumer companies rose at least 2.2 percent today to lead gains in all 10 industry groups in the S&P 500. Bank of America Corp. jumped 8.8 percent and Alcoa Inc. rallied 5.4 percent for the top gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The S&P 500 Financials Index has rallied 8.8 percent in three days, its steepest advance since July 2009, to trim its year-to-date loss to 23 percent. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner told the Senate Banking Committee today that there is “absolutely” no chance of another U.S. financial institution collapsing like Lehman Brothers.
Retail Sales, Apple

Target Corp. climbed 4.3 percent today and Limited Brands Inc. and Saks Inc. also rose after reporting September sales that surpassed analysts’ projections. Apple Inc. shares slipped 0.2 percent after co-founder Steve Jobs died.

The cost to protect the debt of Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. declined amid growing speculation Europe’s leaders will be able to prevent the debt crisis from infecting bank balance sheets.

Credit-default swaps on Morgan Stanley, the owner of the world’s biggest retail brokerage, fell 55 basis points to 475, the biggest decline since May 2009, and those on Citigroup slid 40.5 basis points to 304.57, the largest drop since Nov. 24, 2008, according to data provider CMA. Swaps on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. eased 25 basis points to 371, the data show.

Wall Street strategists say the S&P 500 will post the biggest fourth-quarter rally in 13 years even after they cut forecasts at a rate exceeded only during the credit crisis.

The benchmark index for U.S. stocks will climb 14 percent from yesterday to end 2011 at 1,300, according to the average estimate of 12 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The last time they were this bullish in October was 2008, when the group predicted a 27 percent gain and the index lost 18 percent.
Trading Range

Excluding its dip to a 13-month closing low of 1,099.23 on Oct. 3, the S&P 500 has mostly traded between about 1,120 and 1,220 for the past two months. Following 14 periods since 1990 when the index was stuck in a range, more than 75 percent resulted in gains in the next one, three and six months, according to Birinyi Associates Inc., the Westport, Connecticut- based money management and research firm. The average trading range studied lasted about seven months, with the shortest beginning in March 1998 and lasting three months, Birinyi data show.

“We’ll need clear economic data or policy movements out of Europe to break out of that range,” Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at USAA Investment Management Co. in San Antonio, which oversees about $50 billion, said in a telephone interview.
Earnings Season

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, will mark the unofficial start of the earnings-reporting season when it reports results on Oct. 11. Third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies are projected to have grown 13 percent, according to analyst forecast compiled by Bloomberg, down from an estimate of 17 percent when the index traded at a three-year high at the end of April.

Among European stocks, BNP Paribas SA, Credit Agricole SA and Natixis surged at least 5.3 percent after Le Figaro said the French government is working on a contingency plan to take stakes in the country’s lenders. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, rallied 5.9 percent as metal prices increased. SABMiller Plc surged 7 percent after a report by Brazilian news website IG said the brewer is in talks to be bought by Anheuser-Busch InBev NV. Spokespeople for both companies declined to comment.
Bonds, Currencies

Ten-year Spanish and Italian bond yields decreased seven basis points each, while rates on U.K., French and German debt rose at least four points.

The dollar weakened against 14 of 16 major peers today, with the Brazilian real surging 2.7 percent to lead gains after higher-than-forecast inflation spurred bets the central bank may slow the pace of interest-rate cuts.

The euro strengthened versus 10 of 16 major peers. The pound slid against all 16 major peers after the Bank of England expanded its bond-purchase program. The Australian and New Zealand currencies strengthened against most peers.

Copper futures climbed 4.5 percent to $3.2465 a pound in New York and rallied 5.9 percent in London to lead gains in 19 of 24 commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI Index.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks surged 3.7 percent, extending its rebound from a two-year low on Oct. 4. Benchmark indexes in South Korea, Brazil and Chile climbed at least 2.5 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net
®2011 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

India’s Deficit Goal May Be ‘Difficult’: Mukherjee By Kartik Goyal - Oct 4, 2011

India may find it hard to meet its budget-deficit target in the current fiscal year, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said after the government last week decided to sell more debt.

“It is difficult to maintain the ceiling,” Mukherjee told the Bloomberg UTV television channel in Mirati, his village in the Indian state of West Bengal, referring to the budget- shortfall goal. “I can’t say how I will be able to maintain it now without looking at the cash flows,” he said in the interview that was broadcast yesterday.

Ten-year bond yields in India climbed yesterday to the highest level in three years on concern demand for existing securities will decrease as the government boosts debt sales. India’s federal government on Sept. 29 increased its bond-sale target for the second half of the financial year by about 32 percent, citing outflows from national savings accounts.

“Increased debt supply is likely to exert an upward pressure on yields in the near-term,” said Anubhuti Sahay, a Mumbai-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. She expects the budget gap to widen to 5.4 percent of gross domestic product in the year ending March 31.

Mukherjee aims to narrow the deficit to a four-year low of 4.6 percent of GDP during the period.

The yield on the 7.8 percent securities due April 2021 was little changed at 8.54 percent at the close of trading in Mumbai yesterday. Earlier in the day, it had risen to 8.55 percent, the highest level for benchmark 10-year notes since September 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond Sale

The finance ministry plans to raise 2.2 trillion rupees ($44.5 billion) selling bonds in the six months ending March 31, higher than the budgeted 1.67 trillion rupees, R. Gopalan, secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, said last week. The government raised 2.5 trillion rupees in the first six months of the year.

Individual investors withdrew 61.9 billion rupees between April and August from small-savings deposit plans such as those run by post offices, after adding 238.56 billion rupees in the year-earlier period, official data show. The state-run savings programs offer a return of 8 percent, while State Bank of India, the nation’s biggest lender, offers 9.25 percent interest on one-year deposits, according to its website.

Fitch Ratings said Oct. 3 that any further deterioration in Indian government finances may “weigh” on the nation’s debt ratings, even though the decision to increase the annual borrowing plan was expected.

India’s BBB- rating by Fitch, the lowest investment grade, is currently “well supported” with a stable outlook, said Andrew Colquhoun, Hong Kong-based head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch.

The Indian government’s announcement to issue more debt is “not surprising” and is “within the scope of expectations,” Takahira Ogawa, Singapore-based director of sovereign and international public finance ratings at Standard & Poor’s, said Oct. 3. The nation’s budget deficit will exceed the government’s target, he said, without elaborating.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at sphang@bloomberg.net
®2011 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Asian Stocks, Commodities Decline on Europe Debt Concerns; Bond Risk Jumps By Shiyin Chen - Oct 3, 2011

Asian stocks and commodities dropped a third day, while regional bond risk jumped to a two-year high, on concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen. The euro touched the lowest level in more than a decade against the yen.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1.9 percent at 11:57 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its lowest close since July 2009. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rose 0.3 percent after two-day drop that left the U.S. gauge within 1 percent of levels commonly seen as a bear market. S&P’s GSCI Index of raw materials dropped 0.7 percent, paced by oil and copper. The euro was at 101.39 yen after earlier dropping to 100.76, the weakest since June 2001.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its global growth forecasts and predicted recessions in Germany and France. European finance ministers meeting yesterday considered “technical revisions” to a July deal for a second Greek bailout, fueling concern bondholders may have to take bigger losses on the nation’s debt. Exporters led losses in Asia after automakers reported weaker- than-forecast North American sales and before data today forecast to show U.S. factory orders stalled.

“Investors are focused on European sovereign debt, they’re focused on European banks, and they’re worried about the end game for Greece and the possible contagion to Italy and Spain, and right now that’s trumping everything else,” Russ Koesterich, the San Francisco-based global chief investment strategist for the IShares unit of BlackRock Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. His firm oversees $3.66 trillion as the world’s largest asset manager. “The market is not likely to bottom until we see some signs of clarity in Europe.”
Stocks Slump

About three shares fell for every one that gained on MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index, which started the fourth quarter with a 2.6 percent drop yesterday. The gauge is down 21 percent for the year. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 1.6 percent and the Kospi Index tumbled 4.6 percent in South Korea, where financial markets were closed for a holiday yesterday. China remains shut for the rest of the week.

Toyota Motor Corp. slipped 2.5 percent in Tokyo after Asia’s largest automaker reported a 17 percent drop in U.S. sales. Hyundai Motor Co. and affiliate Kia Motors Corp. dropped at least 2.5 percent each after their sales gains missed analyst expectations. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. sank 5 percent as Japan’s third-biggest shipping line by sales forecast a full- year net loss because of lower transport rates.

The world economy will probably expand 3.8 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2012, compared with earlier predictions of 3.9 percent for 2011 and 4.2 percent for next year, Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Dominic Wilson wrote in an Oct. 3 report. The brokerage lowered its forecast for earnings growth in Asia excluding Japan in a separate report today.

U.S. Economy

The S&P 500 slumped 2.9 percent yesterday to close at the lowest level since Sept. 8, 2010. The benchmark U.S. stocks gauge has dropped 19 percent since April 29, when it climbed to the highest level since 2008. A Commerce Department report today may show factory orders were little changed in August, after a 2.4 percent gain the prior month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 1.77 percent after dropping 16 basis points yesterday. The rate on 30-year bonds sank 19 basis points yesterday to the lowest level since January 2009 after the Federal Reserve bought $2.5 billion of longer-term debt. Thirty-year yields were two basis points higher at 2.75 percent today.

Japan’s bonds rose, dragging 30-year yields down 1.6 basis points to 1.905 percent. The Ministry of Finance will sell 2.2 trillion yen ($28.7 billion) of 10-year bonds today.

Europe’s Politicians

The euro traded at $1.3211, after earlier touching $1.3164, the weakest since Jan. 13. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble opposed moves to increase the scale of the euro rescue fund, damping speculation of a breakthrough in talks to quell the crisis.

Speaking to reporters early today after chairing a meeting of euro finance chiefs, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker gave no details about a possible recalibration of the debt exchange for Greece. The July agreement had called for investors to contribute 50 billion euros ($66 billion) to a 159 billion-euro rescue.

“If we don’t get a resolution in Greece, we may see a disorderly default,” said Koichi Kurose, chief economist in Tokyo at Resona Bank Ltd. which oversees the equivalent of $68 billion in assets. “The politicians are all over the place.”

The Australian dollar dropped as much as 0.5 percent to 94.77 U.S. cents before trading little changed at 95.29 cents. It pared losses after data today showed the nation’s trade surplus in August was the widest since June 2010. The Reserve Bank of Australia may keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent today, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Korea CPI, Exports

South Korea’s won weakened to 1,204.91 per dollar, compared with the Sept. 30 close of 1,178.10. The currency fell to its weakest level since July 2010. South Korea’s consumer prices rose 4.3 percent in September from a year earlier, down from a 5.3 percent gain in August that was the biggest in three years, while exports climbed in September at the slowest pace in three months, government data showed.

The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds against non-payment jumped, with the Markit iTraxx Asia index of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan increasing 11 basis points to 275, Credit Agricole SA prices show. That’s set for its highest close since May 1, 2009, according to CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc., and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.

The Markit iTraxx Australia index rose 10 basis points to 238, according to Credit Agricole. The gauge is headed for its highest close since May 18, 2009, CMA prices in New York show.
Oil, Metals

Oil for November delivery dropped 1.2 percent to $76.68 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell yesterday to the lowest settlement in more than a year. U.S. crude inventories climbed for a second week, an Energy Department report tomorrow may show. Libya aims to raise production to more than 500,000 barrels a day by the end of this month, according to Nuri Berruien, the chairman of state-run National Oil Corp., in Tripoli yesterday. The nation pumped 100,000 barrels a day in September.

Three-month copper dropped 2.6 percent to $6,810 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, set for a fifth day of declines. Zinc slipped 0.8 percent, nickel dropped 2.8 percent and aluminum declined 0.8 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Shelley Smith at ssmith118@bloomberg.net
®2011 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Apple Loses in Surging India Smartphone Market By Ketaki Gokhale - Oct 2, 2011

Apple Inc. (AAPL), the world’s largest smartphone maker, is having trouble selling iPhones in India, a market with 602 million active subscribers.

Apple, which will introduce a new iPhone version tomorrow, ships fewer handsets to the world’s second-largest mobile-phone market than it does to Norway. Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) and Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) sell more devices in India, where smartphone shipments are forecast to grow almost 70 percent a year until 2015, helping mitigate their market-share losses in the U.S. and Europe.

Sales for the world’s biggest company by market value are hindered because Indian wireless carriers, which started third- generation networks this year, have yet to offer nationwide services fast enough to take advantage of iPhone features, said Gus Papageorgiou, an analyst at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto.

“Networks in India are just not conducive for Apple -- 3G networks aren’t quite where they are in Western Europe and North America,” he said. “RIM got the right product, the right timing, the right app.”

Apple shipped 62,043 iPhones to India in the quarter ending June 30, or fewer than to Norway, Belgium or Israel, according to estimates by Framingham, Massachusetts-based researcher IDC.
BlackBerry Messenger

Apple accounted for 2.6 percent of India’s smartphone shipments in the quarter ended June 30, trailing RIM’s 15 percent, Samsung Electronics Co.’s 21 percent and Nokia’s 46 percent, IDC estimates.

“The iPhone only really works when you have Wi-Fi,” said Kshma Shah, a 25-year-old interior designer in Mumbai. “3G has barely started in India, and on 2G you just can’t have the same experience.”

The world’s largest maker of tablet computers also shipped about 21,150 iPads to India in the same period, or 0.2 percent of its global total, according to IDC.

RIM’s BlackBerry Messenger instant-messaging service is popular because it was one of the first, and it functions well on networks a generation behind the speeds offered in the U.S. and Europe, Papageorgiou said.

“Only a few of my friends have iPhones,” said Mahafareenn Sarkari, a 25-year-old dance instructor in Mumbai. “BlackBerry is where everybody is, so it made sense for me to be on it, too.”
RIM’s ‘Wave’

RIM, which entered India in 2004, plans to extend its lead over Apple after expanding distribution to 80 cities from 15 starting last year, said Krishnadeep Baruah, director of marketing for Waterloo, Canada-based RIM in India.

“We want to ride this wave,” Baruah said. “This is really the time to expand into the emerging towns and cities.”

That contrasts with RIM’s struggles worldwide, with its stock falling 61 percent this year. At least five RIM executives have left since March, and the company sold half as many PlayBook tablets in the second quarter as analysts had forecast on average.

Nokia has more than 200,000 outlets in India and offers 13 smartphone models, Vilsha Kapoor of New Delhi-based Six Degrees PR, hired by Nokia to handle public relations, said in an e-mail.

The Espoo, Finland-based company is seeking to reverse its global performance. Shares are down 45 percent this year, and it is eliminating at least 7,500 jobs as Apple takes global market share and Asian competitors push the price of smartphones below $100.
68 Percent Growth

Smartphone shipments in India are poised to jump almost eightfold, or an average of 68 percent a year, to 81.5 million units by 2015, according to IDC.

Apple products aren’t as accessible in India because consumers can’t buy iPhones, iPads and iTunes songs from company stores or its website. Apple sells through licensed resellers, including a Reliance Industries Ltd. subsidiary and Tata Group’s Croma.

“Apple continues to invest in India as a growing market for the company,” Alan Hely, a London-based spokesman for Apple, said in an e-mailed response.

Steve Dowling, a Cupertino, California-based spokesman for Apple, declined to comment.

In China, Apple operates six stores, including its highest- grossing ones worldwide. Revenue in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong increased six times to $3.8 billion in the quarter ended June, Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook said in July.
‘Pathetic’ Advertising

Apple may be relying more on word-of-mouth among India’s wealthy, said Harish Bijoor, who runs his own brand consulting firm in Bangalore.

“They don’t see a big enough market for their products to make it worthwhile,” Bijoor said. “They’ve barely done any advertising. It’s pathetic, really.”

Cost is also an issue in a country where the World Bank estimates that about 900 million people live on less than $2 a day.

The cheapest iPhone 4 costs $705 at Reliance’s iStore, while the cheapest iPad 2 sells for about $603. In Apple’s U.S. online store, the iPhone 4 starts at $199 with an AT&T Inc. contract and the iPad starts at $499.

BlackBerrys under $200 made up 40 percent of their shipments in India in the quarter ended June 30, said T.Z. Wong, an analyst for IDC.

“I don’t think Apple is a brand for the masses,” said Ajit Joshi, managing director of Croma, which also sells other brands besides Apple. “It’s a brand for the classes.”

The masses may be getting wealthier as India’s new five- year plan aims for 9 percent growth in gross domestic product. India last year joined the top dozen countries with the most millionaires, according to a report by Capgemini and Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management in June.

Salaries in India also are set to rise the most in the Asia-Pacific region this year, according to an Aon Hewitt LLC survey released in March 8.

“It’s a brand-in-waiting,” said Viren Razdan, managing director of consulting firm Interbrand’s Mumbai office. “Apple is waiting for infrastructure and consumer maturity.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Ketaki Gokhale in Mumbai at kgokhale@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Young-Sam Cho at ycho2@bloomberg.net
®2011 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.