India’s
Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. (KAIR)
escaped collapse in 2010 by restructuring 77.2 billion rupees
($1.4 billion) of debt it had run up buying airlines and adding
routes amid the nation’s economic boom.
Less than two years later, the carrier controlled by
billionaire Vijay Mallya was back in talks with creditors, while
its net debt had increased by 9 billion rupees. The airline this
month grounded its entire fleet after pilots went on strike to
demand seven months of unpaid salaries, and was given time until
the end of October by its creditors to submit a funding plan.
Kingfisher is among Indian companies resorting to an out-
of-court loan-restructuring process that bankers and regulators
say is too lenient on borrowers, leading to restructured debt
that has more than doubled since March 2009. A fifth of the
credit may sour as the
economy falters and crimp profits at
government-controlled lenders such as
State Bank of India that
account for three-quarters of the nation’s loans and deposits.
“No single lender can afford a large company going under,
a la Titanic,” A.S.V. Krishnan, senior research analyst at
Ambit Capital Pvt. in
Mumbai, said in an interview last week.
“Lenders have overdone restructuring, and it is coming to roost
now on their balance sheets.”
Concern that the rise in restructured loans -- which give
borrowers a moratorium on payments, longer maturities or lower
interest rates -- will lead to deterioration in asset quality is
weighing on the shares of state-run lenders this year, including
Bank of India and
Punjab National Bank. (PNB) The six worst performers
in 2012 on the
Bankex Index (BANKEX), which tracks stocks of 14 Indian
lenders, are controlled by the government.
Stressed Assets
The
volume of loans that will be restructured may jump 71
percent in the year ending March 2013 to 2.05 trillion rupees
from 1.2 trillion rupees a year earlier, according to estimates
by Crisil Ltd., the Indian unit of Standard & Poor’s. That would
mean 5.7 percent of India’s total bank loans will have been
restructured over the two-year period.
Even with easier terms, borrowers have failed to make
payments on 15 percent of these loans since 2009, a panel
constituted by the Reserve
Bank of India (BOI) wrote in a
July 20
report. The existing guidelines allow banks to restructure loans
for debtors who don’t have viable plans to bolster cash flow,
according to the report, delaying the inevitable collapse.
Companies may go on to default on as much as 500 billion
rupees of restructured
loans, Pawan Agrawal, a senior director
at Crisil, estimated on Aug. 30.
The increase in the volume of restructured debt means that
stressed assets, including restructured debt and gross
nonperforming loans, may climb to a 12-year high of 11 percent
of total loans for Indian banks in the year ending in March,
Suresh Ganapathy and Parag Jariwala, analysts at Macquarie Group
Ltd. in Mumbai, wrote in an Aug. 30 report.
‘Inevitable Downgrade’
India’s
government-controlled lenders, led by Mumbai-based
State Bank of India, the nation’s largest, and New Delhi-based
Punjab National Bank, have the most at stake. The restructured
debt probably would account for an average 8.5 percent of state-
run lenders’ loans by the end of March, Macquarie estimated,
based on Crisil’s forecast.
The restructured debt accounted for 5.92 percent of
outstanding standard loans at state-controlled lenders as of the
end of March, according to an Aug. 23 central bank report. The
ratio was 1.08 percent on average for the biggest private-sector
banks, including
ICICI Bank Ltd. (ICICIBC) and HDFC Bank Ltd., and 0.14
percent for foreign lenders operating in India, the data show.
“Lenders are deferring the inevitable downgrade of many
unviable accounts by restructuring,” Nitin Kumar, a Mumbai-
based analyst at Quant Broking Ltd., said in a phone interview.
“If the economic scenario worsens, a large portion of the
restructured loans will turn bad.”
Credit Costs
Restructuring increases
credit costs for lenders, which are
required to set aside 2 percent of the value as provisions,
compared with 0.4 percent for the original loan. New rules under
consideration by the central bank would increase that to 5
percent, which may cut
pretax earnings for state-run lenders by
as much as 10 percent, according to estimates by Mumbai-based
Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd.
More borrowers may default on restructured debt as the
economy slows and companies struggle to raise funds amid the
rout in capital markets and tightened credit from lenders. The
slippage may climb to 20 percent because of the “aggressive
restructuring” by state-run lenders and the faltering economy,
Espirito Santo Securities wrote in an Aug. 30 note to clients.
Stalled Growth
The central bank on July 31 cut its forecast for expansion
of India’s $1.8 trillion economy to 6.5 percent for the 12
months that began April 1. That would match last year’s pace,
which was the slowest in nine years.
A squeeze on short-term financing has already exacerbated
the pressure on power utilities run by regional governments.
Last month, India’s cabinet intervened to rescue the largest
electricity buyers, allowing them to raise rates and unveiling
steps to reorganize their $30 billion of debt.
The slowdown also has led companies including
GTL Ltd. (GTS),
Hotel Leelaventure Ltd. (LELA),
Hindustan Construction Co. (HCC), 3I Infotech
Ltd., KS Oils Ltd. and Jindal Stainless Ltd. to tap India’s
voluntary debt-restructuring system.
The system, set up for large and mid-size companies in 2001
with guidelines issued by the central bank, allows borrowers to
seek a moratorium on repayments, obtain new loans with extended
maturities or lower interest rates, or swap debt for equity to
avoid defaults.
Voluntary Program
The approval process for restructuring debt is set in
motion by creditors who account for at least 20 percent of the
loans. Each package can be implemented only after it wins the
backing of lenders accounting for 75 percent of the debt,
according to the
Corporate Debt Restructuring Mechanism website.
The process is overseen by a group of bankers, including the
heads of
State Bank of India (SBIN), ICICI and Punjab National Bank.
The list of companies awaiting better terms for their loans
at CDR Cell, the unit responsible for debt restructuring, is “a
better indicator of the health of corporate India” than the
banks’ reported bad-debt ratios, Hemindra Hazari and Manuj Oberoi, analysts at Nirmal Bang Group in Mumbai, wrote in an
Aug. 21 note to clients.
CDR Cell received 433 requests for restructuring 2.27
trillion rupees in loans as of June 30, according to its
website. That’s
more than double the 958.2 billion rupees
reported as of March 31, 2009. About 371.7 billion rupees in
debt is in the final stages of being approved for restructuring,
the data show.
‘Extraordinary Rise’
“We are seeing an extraordinary rise in the number and
volume of loans being restructured,” Reserve Bank of India
Deputy Governor K.C. Chakrabarty said in Mumbai Aug. 11. “It
appears that the provisions of the corporate debt-restructuring
mechanism have not been used very ethically and judiciously.”
Among the largest such transactions is a restructuring
arranged by Mumbai-based Global Group, a provider of
telecommunications infrastructure and network services.
The closely held company in December negotiated with a
group of 25 lenders for 162 billion rupees owed by its GTL Ltd.,
GTL Infrastructure Ltd. (GTLI) and Chennai Networks Infrastructure Ltd.
companies. Under the agreement, creditors would give up interest
payments of 24 billion rupees. That was matched by the amount
put up as a personal guarantee by Global’s controlling
shareholder. Ramakrishna Bellam, a spokesman for Global Group,
declined to comment on the restructuring.
Pending Restructuring
At
State Bank of India, the volume of loans that
deteriorated into bad debts during the first quarter climbed to
a record 108.4 billion rupees, according to Mumbai-based Motilal
Oswal Financial Services Ltd., more than double the previous
three months’ 43.8 billion rupees. The gross
nonperforming-loan
ratio widened to 4.99 percent.
“We can only hope that the pain is behind us as far as
asset quality is concerned,” State Bank of India Chief
Financial Officer Diwakar Gupta said Sept. 24.
While the bank restructured about 5.6 billion rupees in
loans during the three months ended June 30, matching the year-
earlier level, almost 32 billion rupees in loans are awaiting
approval at CDR Cell, Gupta said. About 20 percent of the bank’s
renegotiated loans had soured by the end of June, he said.
Still, State Bank is in better shape than its smaller
government-controlled rivals, according to analysts at Macquarie
and Espirito Santo.
Oriental Bank of Commerce, based in New Delhi, has
restructured as much as 8.3 percent of its total domestic assets
since March 2010, compared with State Bank’s 1.7 percent,
according to Saikiran Pulavarthi and Sri Karthik Velamakanni,
analysts at Espirito Santo. At Mumbai-based Bank of India and
Punjab National Bank, it was 6.7 percent, they wrote in an Aug.
30 note to clients.
Calls and e-mails to Oriental Bank Chairman and Managing
Director S.L. Bansal, Bank of India CFO Gauri Shankar and Punjab
National Bank Chairman K.R. Kamath weren’t returned.
Tightening Safeguards
The surge in restructured debt was triggered by one-time
measures meant to help corporate borrowers and banks in the
aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, according to the
July 20 Reserve Bank of India report.
So-called restructured standard assets -- loans that have
been renegotiated and on which borrowers are making scheduled
payments -- climbed 77 percent over two years to 1.07 trillion
rupees as of March 2011, surpassing gross bad loans of 940.9
billion rupees, the central bank panel reported. It didn’t
provide more recent numbers.
“The data seems to suggest that restructuring on accounts
is being resorted to, to avoid classification of accounts as
nonperforming assets,” Chakrabarty told reporters.
Debt Limits
The panel recommended changes that aim to tighten
safeguards against defaults for creditors while curtailing the
“excessive risk-taking” and “lax business practices” by
borrowers, according to the report.
In addition to increasing the provisions that banks must
set aside for restructured loans to 5 percent from the current 2
percent, the panel also recommended introducing an unspecified
limit on the amount of debt that can be swapped for equity at
publicly held companies.
The debtor companies’ controlling shareholders, known in
India as promoters, also should be required to contribute a
minimum 15 percent of the reduction in value of the loans or two
percent of the restructured debt, they said.
“The proposal is timely, as banks may end up restructuring
more loans” in the two years ending March 2013 than they had in
the previous 10 years, Ananda Bhoumik, senior director for
financial institutions at Fitch Ratings India Pvt. and a member
of the central bank panel, wrote in a July 25 note.
‘Slightly Excessive’
The recommendations face some criticism from bankers such
as State Bank of India Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri, who described
them as “slightly excessive” in an interview in Mumbai on
Sept. 24. The central bank will determine the new guidelines
after an analysis of comments from stakeholders, central bank
Deputy Governor Anand Sinha said Sept. 6. The feedback period
for the proposals ended on Aug. 21.
Proponents of tighter rules argue that investors and
lenders would benefit from more transparency in asset quality.
“Treating restructured loans as nonperforming would help
report the real credit cost of Indian banks and encourage them
to price the risk into these loans more accurately,” Fitch’s
Bhoumik wrote in the note.
Reduced Profit
The proposed increase in provisions may reduce pretax
profit for state-run banks by as much as 10 percent, according
to estimates from Nilesh Parikh, Kunal Shah and Suruchi
Chaudhary, analysts at Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai. The
worst-hit probably will be
Indian Overseas Bank (IOB),
Oriental Bank
of Commerce (OBC), Union Bank of India and Punjab National Bank, while
the impact for private-sector banks may be less than 1 percent,
they wrote on July 20.
Indian Overseas Bank Chairman M. Narendra and Union Bank of
India spokesman S. Aftab also didn’t return calls and e-mails
seeking comment.
The current loan-restructuring process for large and mid-
size companies arose from the Indian court system’s failure to
handle company bankruptcies.
“The CDR Cell is the nearest approximation that India has
to the Chapter 11 bankruptcy framework available in the U.S.,”
State Bank’s Chaudhuri said in an interview in Mumbai on June
27. “Though the scenario isn’t ideal, we don’t have a choice
but to work within the legal framework available to us.”
The differences between the two systems are significant for
controlling shareholders. While a bankruptcy would wipe out
equity owners’ investments, under India’s voluntary debt-
restructuring program, they enjoy better protection.
‘Perverse Incentives’
If creditors are forced to write down debt by $100 million,
the borrower’s controlling shareholder would be called upon to
inject only $15 million of new equity capital. The contribution
by the promoter can be made in the form of interest-free loans
to the company or conversion of unsecured debt into stock,
according to the central bank.
The current system creates “perverse incentives” by not
inflicting enough economic pain on corporate owners, said Anish Tawakley, a Mumbai-based banking analyst at Barclays Plc.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (KMB), the only publicly traded Indian
lender that hasn’t joined CDR Cell, said that the decision to
stay out has helped to keep soured loans in check.
“We believe that if the loans go bad it is always better
to accept them as a nonperforming loan and start working on
recovering it,” Kotak Mahindra CFO Jaimin Bhatt said in an
interview on July 19.
The lender, controlled by billionaire Uday Kotak, reported
that 0.64 percent of its total loans had soured as of June 30,
widening from 0.41 percent a year earlier.
Moral Hazard
Yes Bank Ltd. (YES), based in Mumbai, also has considered exiting
CDR Cell, Chief Executive Officer Rana Kapoor said.
The central bank’s proposed changes are a “very good”
development as they require owners to take a bigger hit, thereby
ensuring a “serious commitment,” Kapoor said in a July 25
interview. The number of cases referred to CDR Cell probably
will decrease after the new rules are in place, he said.
If banks use the corporate debt-restructuring mechanism to
defer bad loans, it defeats the purpose of the system, Kapoor
said in an interview.
The banks’ willingness to restructure loans without
imposing substantial losses on shareholders “may be creating a
moral hazard,” Tawakley of Barclays said in a phone interview.
“People know that you can take a risk and you won’t have
to bear the costs of those risks as it will be borne by the
banks,” Tawakley said.
Kingfisher Losses
Kingfisher’s Mallya, 56, founded the Bangalore-based
company in 2005, naming it after his UB Group’s flagship beer
brand. He then took on debt and switched strategies even as the
carrier’s losses mounted. In 2008, the company completed a
merger with Deccan Aviation Ltd., operator of India’s first low-
cost airline.
Mallya said in a September 2011
letter to shareholders that
banks had converted 30 percent of their outstanding loans into
preferential and equity capital. Lenders were allotted 116
million shares at a price of 64.48 rupees a share on March 31,
2011, while the shares closed in Mumbai at 39.8 rupees apiece.
The stock ended last week at 13.25 rupees.
In that round of debt restructuring, lenders had reduced
Kingfisher’s interest rate by three percentage points to 11
percent, according to the firm’s annual report for that year.
Tougher Stance
Kingfisher’s financial woes continued even after the debt
restructuring. In November, the carrier asked for another round
of reductions in loan rates and an increase in credit limits to
help meet operating costs and pay for fuel.
Kingfisher CEO Sanjay Aggarwal and spokesman Prakash Mirpuri didn’t return e-mails seeking comment. Mallya and UB
Group’s CFO Ravi Nedungadi also didn’t reply to e-mails or
return calls to their mobile phones.
The carrier had pledged its brand, a luxury villa in Goa,
two helicopters, a Mumbai building and shares as collateral for
bank loans of as much as 64.2 billion rupees as of Nov. 30,
Junior Finance Minister Namo Narain Meena told lawmakers on Dec.
9. The total value of the collateral, including furniture and
fixtures, was 52.4 billion rupees, he said.
This time, bankers are taking a tougher stance with the
airline. State Bank of India sees “no room” for further
lending to Kingfisher, Chaudhuri said in an Oct. 5 interview
with Bloomberg TV India. The lender has already set aside
provisions for its unsecured loans to the carrier, he said.
The airline has until the end of the month to provide a
plan for an equity infusion to its banks, State Bank Managing
Director A. Krishna Kumar told reporters in Mumbai yesterday.
‘Unchartered Territory’
On the same day, Kingfisher said it would extend the
shutdown of its operations through Oct. 12. India’s aviation
regulator is considering canceling or suspending the airline’s
license, adding pressure on Mallya as he seeks investments to
avert the carrier’s failure.
The rating companies’ projections for debt restructuring
aimed at such borrowers is “shocking,” said Hatim Broachwala,
a Mumbai-based banking analyst at Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
“We are treading unchartered territory with this
unprecedented spike in restructured loans,” Broachwala said in
a phone interview. “Nobody knows how much of this will go bad
as the banks were very lenient. The regulator has to quickly
come out with measures to disincentivize lenders from taking
this escape route.”
To contact the reporters on this story:
George Smith Alexander in Mumbai at
galexander11@bloomberg.net;
Anto Antony in Mumbai at
aantony1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Chitra Somayaji at
csomayaji@bloomberg.net;
Philip Lagerkranser at
lagerkranser@bloomberg.net