Singh’s tenure beset by indecision

When Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, became the first premier to return to office after serving a full term since Jawaharlal Nehru, hopes for his tenure were high.

The expectation was that Mr Singh who, as finance minister 20 years ago oversaw the liberalising of the Indian economy from tiers of stifling regulations, would use his renewed mandate to open the economy further, and improve India’s governance.

However, almost two years on, Mr Singh’s extended tenure is characterised by an aversion to tough decisions. A shopping list of reforms, from raising caps on foreign investment in pension and insurance sectors to paring down food, energy and fertiliser subsidies, remains almost untouched in spite of a cushion of galloping economic growth and a disorganised opposition.

A cabinet reshuffle on Wednesday, where ministers of dubious performance have shunted from one ministry to another but none dropped outright, typifies an indecisiveness, and a lack of political authority at the top.

Ashutosh Varshney, a professor of political science at Brown University in the US, describes the reshuffle as “lacking a political message” and reflecting deeper problems within the ruling coalition. Other commentators have spoken of Mr Singh as “rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic” and pursuing a “losing strategy” when the state is facing severe criticism for a series of embarrassing high profile corruption scandals that have brought parliament to its knees.

Many are wondering why 78-year old Mr Singh, and Sonia Gandhi, the president of the Congress party, undertook a reshuffle at all if they were not prepared to show more gumption to tackle the country’s ills.

Mr Singh has not helped his own cause. He has termed the reshuffle “minor” even though by any measure it is extensive. He has moved about 37 people among an administration of about 78 ministers of various rank. The prime minister has also signalled more “expansive” changes after the budget session of parliament which begins next month. This leaves open the question as to whether he intends a shake- up of the so far untouched finance, home, foreign and defence portfolios.

His ministers have defended Mr Singh’s deft, “surgeon-like” qualities, as required at the top of the world’s largest democracy, and reject suggestions that the Congress-led government is paralysed by internal divisions over policy and corruption.

Salman Khursheed, minister of water resources, describes the reshuffle as “the beginning of something bigger” but says it also reflects the “political constraints of the time” when the Congress party has to pander to regional allies rather than enjoy the freedom of an outright majority.

“Just because [the prime minister] hasn’t dropped members of his team doesn’t mean a message has not been sent,” Ashwani Kumar, the newly appointed minister of science, says.

Prof Varshney acknowledges that Mr Singh has upgraded some low-profile portfolios that were previously populated by a succession of mediocre ministers. One is environment, now under the control of Jairam Ramesh; another is water affairs – critical in a region where India’s rivers are shared with Pakistan, China and Bangladesh – now filled by Mr Khursheed.

Others include highways where Kamal Nath has made way for C.P. Joshi and petroleum where Murli Deora, a Mumbai politician viewed as a pawn to corporate interests, has been replaced by Jaipal Reddy.

This generous interpretation is not widely shared. Sanjaya Baru, a former adviser to the prime minister and now the editor of Business Standard, says this week’s cabinet manoeuvres reflect “political constraints that Mr Singh cannot overcome”.

Such constraints have weighed most heavily on the prime minister’s strongest suit, the economy, over the past 18 months, making him look tired and ineffectual.

Business lobby groups had expected a march towards the liberalisation of the defence, retail and financial services sectors, labour market reform and state disinvestments to help sustain growth projections. They also forecast more rapid implementation of badly needed infrastructure projects, and the reduction of costly subsidies.

On the day of the coalition’s re-election, Sensex, the Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark index, roared upwards on hopes for an economic cabinet ‘dream-team’, the envy of many G20 countries and led by a man of impeccable personal integrity.

The talents of Mr Singh, Pranab Mukherjee, the finance minister, P.C. Chidamabaram, the home minister, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the deputy chairman of the planning commission, and Kamal Nath, now minister of urban affairs, have not shone as they might.

Instead, last year marked a low point in decision-making with the cabinet signing off on 112 resolutions, less than half of the number achieved annually during the coalition’s first period of office.

Among them were a watered-down nuclear liability bill, and steps towards greater parliamentary representation for women.