Home-Stretch Buying Lifts Merchants’ Spirits

The last-minute holiday surge is heralding the return of the American consumer, who is shedding the recession’s thrifty ways and rediscovering the pleasure of shopping.

The malls are jammed, parking lots snarled and sales expected to stay strong in the few remaining days before Christmas.

With new figures showing in-store sales up 5.5 percent on the final weekend before Christmas compared with last year, this holiday season is on track to be the healthiest since 2006.

Separately, online shopping has been fueling growth in total sales, while spending in stores on this Thursday alone may rival the levels reached the Friday after Thanksgiving.

And Christmas Eve still beckons the procrastinators. Of those with the majority of their shopping left to do, about 10 percent plan to be in stores on Friday, one survey suggests.

From the Pacific Northwest to New Jersey, a few consumers rushing in and out of the mall madness this week gave the sense that a healing economy meant it was fine to splurge a little bit.

“The air alone makes me want to shop,” said Michaya Pollard, 29, who had accompanied her children’s elementary school to Westlake Center mall in downtown Seattle to see the Christmas decorations.

After a particularly good year at the barber shop and salons that she owns, Ms. Pollard said she had spent several hours over the weekend buying extra gifts like a Coach bag for her sister. “I didn’t plan on spending more this year,” she said, but “I’m excited about their faces on Christmas day.”

Some women’s apparel items were sold out, bolstering the notion that women were buying for themselves again. A Patagonia white-fleece jacket in medium was available only at a store in tropical Honolulu, while an Anthropologie sweater coat decorated with poppies was out of stock at the company’s online store but available on eBay at a huge markup.

Retailers have begun to change their approach to the holiday season after two years in which they have had to mark down items as Christmas neared. Retailers now manage their inventory better across sectors like women’s apparel, for instance, and avoid the last-minute price-slashing of Christmases past.

“Retailers have become much better at playing this game,” Sherif Mityas, a partner in the retail practice of the consulting firm A. T. Kearney, said in an e-mail.

Still, promotions were heavy, with Lord & Taylor offering 20 percent off almost the entire store, and Kohl’s giving its Kohl’s cardholders 15 to 30 percent off all purchases.

Many stores were running low on inventory, which was actually a good thing for the retailers, Mr. Mityas said.

“Retailers have learned painful lessons around the balance of inventory, versus margin-crushing fire sales the last days before Christmas,” he said.

“Getting more consumers to pay higher prices earlier in the holiday season in fear of missing out on certain items at the last minute will serve retailers well in subsequent holiday seasons.”

The recession forced stores to regroup after a dismal holiday year in 2008, and one that showed just slight improvement last year.

According to the International Council of Shopping Centers, which tracks sales at chain stores open at least a year, November and December sales rose 1.1 percent in 2007, then declined 5.6 percent in 2008 and rose 2.3 percent in 2009.

This year, the council has already revised its estimates upward, and now expects chain store sales to rise 3.5 to 4 percent. That would rival prerecession spending levels, and be the biggest increase in holiday spending since 2006.

ShopperTrak, which estimates total retail sales, said on Wednesday that dollars spent this last weekend had risen 5.5 percent, to $18.83 billion, from last year, while traffic increased 3 percent.

As for the online shopping, which has outpaced in-store sales this year, the marketing research company comScore indicated that online sales increased 12 percent in the first 49 days of the holiday season, to $28.36 billion, compared with the same period last year.

Over all, apparel sales were strong, up 9.8 percent from Oct. 31 to Dec. 11 compared with last year, according to MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, which tracks all forms of payment, including cash and check.

Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis at SpendingPulse, noted that women’s apparel was up about 4.4 percent in the early holiday shopping season. “They’re perking up even since Black Friday a little bit — it’s the most positive season we’ve seen there since 2007,” he said. “Women are starting to buy for themselves again.”

Other stores, including J. Crew and a few teenage-oriented retailers, appeared to have ordered too much and were trying to adjust, said John D. Morris, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets. J. Crew, for instance, has been resorting to offers that give 25 or 30 percent off the entire store.

“Not all retailers are crossing the finish line in fighting shape,” Mr. Morris said in an e-mail.