Pakistan’s tribal areas upset US plans

Terror alerts in Europe. Drone strikes on foreign militants. The murder of an outspoken critic of the Taliban. Pakistan’s tribal areas are once more living up to the title coined by Barack Obama, US president, as “the most dangerous place in the world”.

The stakes for Washington in Pakistan have never been higher, but the past week has laid bare the limits of Mr Obama’s attempt to forge a new partnership with Islamabad. A more aggressive approach by the US military, which has sent helicopters to pursue militants across the border from Afghanistan, has fared little better. Pakistan has closed a key supply route for Nato troops through the Khyber Pass in response to the accidental killing of two Pakistani border guards.

The crossing remained shut on Friday amid apologies from US diplomats and generals. The spat has complicated fraught attempts to foster a shared vision on combating extremism.

A procession of US officials has visited Islamabad this year in an attempt to shake off America’s reputation here as a fair-weather friend. Washington has increased civilian and military aid and rushed in relief after catastrophic floods.

The largesse has paid limited dividends. Mr Obama’s desire for Pakistan’s help on Afghanistan conflicts with a long-standing strategy by elements in Pakistan’s intelligence services, who are seeking to curb Indian influence in Afghanistan by backing militants. The weak government of Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan’s president, is locked in a fresh battle with the judiciary. Pakistan’s generals dictate security policy.

Mr Obama’s gamble of sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan hinged on the assumption that Pakistan would broaden an offensive against its own militants to target Afghan fighters in North Waziristan. Obama’s Wars, a new book by veteran US journalist Bob Woodward, suggests that the president sees the Pakistan “safe haven” as the main barrier to progress in Afghanistan.

The hoped-for offensive has not materialised. Pakistan’s army says it is too thinly stretched and security officials fear fresh terror attacks in large cities. The shooting last weekend of Mohammad Farooq Khan, an Islamic scholar and critic of suicide bombings, was a reminder that Pakistanis pay a far higher price for extremist violence than those in the west.

The army’s reluctance to launch big operations in North Waziristan also partly reflects its long-standing reliance on Afghan militants as proxies.

For Pakistan, it might make little sense to abandon the policy of backing the Afghan Taliban when the US commitment to stabilising their neighbour looks so shaky. Mr Obama’s announcement that he will start withdrawing US forces in July next year fanned Pakistani fears that civil war will erupt next door.