Japan Polls Say Kan May Lose Upper House Control in Election

Japanese politicians crisscrossed the country ahead of this weekend’s election as polls showed Prime Minister Naoto Kan may fail in his bid to retain control of both houses of parliament, hindering his ability to pass legislation.

Many voters are undecided about who to support in the July 11 contest for half the 242 seats in the upper house. The electorate is divided over Kan’s suggestion to raise the national sales tax, and his Democratic Party of Japan’s first 10 months in office were marred by the departure of his predecessor after campaign finance scandals and a dispute with the U.S.

“This is a very difficult election,” said Yu Miyasaka, a 23-year-old university student watching a campaign speech in Tokyo two days ago. “I haven’t decided who to vote for.”

Three newspaper polls published today said the ruling coalition may fall short of keeping the 56 seats needed to maintain its majority in the chamber. The main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, ousted from power last August in elections for the more powerful lower house, and the new Your Party are likely to gain, the surveys showed.

Kan has said his primary goal is to keep all of the DPJ’s 54 seats. The Asahi newspaper said the Democrats may win fewer than 50 seats. The LDP may increase their seats from 38 to about 44, while Your Party may go from zero to 11. Between 30 and 40 percent of voters haven’t made up their mind, the Asahi said.

Coalition Woes

The paper said coalition partner People’s New Party may not win any of the three seats it is contesting, which would hamper the government’s ability to get legislation smoothly through parliament. The Asahi interviewed 49,653 people on July 6-7 and didn’t provide a margin of error.

Kan has called for a debate on whether to as much as double the 5 percent consumption tax, stressing that Japan must confront a debt amounting to $80,000 per person to avoid the kind of fiscal crisis that has made Europe a riskier bet for investors. While saying any rise in the tax is “at least two to three years off,” he casts the debate in terms of the need to pay for Japan’s rising social welfare costs.

“More voters are puzzled about which party to choose this time compared with last year,” said Airo Hino, associate professor of political science at Tokyo’s Waseda University. “Voters are ambivalent, making results unpredictable and possibly destabilizing Japanese politics as the ruling bloc may fail to win a majority.”

Hatoyama’s Resignation

The DPJ under Yukio Hatoyama last August defeated the LDP in the lower house, ending more than 50 years of almost unbroken control. Hatoyama quickly ran into trouble and resigned on June 2 over his broken promise to relocate a U.S. military base from Okinawa as well as campaign finance scandals involving him and chief party strategist Ichiro Ozawa.

Hatoyama shifted spending from public works to households, passing legislation to give households a monthly stipend of 13,000 yen ($147) per child and eliminating public high school fees.

“Do you want political stability or political confusion,” Kan said at a July 3 campaign stop northwest of Tokyo. “If the opposition wins many seats, then the two chambers of parliament will be divided and political confusion will continue, and this is not good for Japan.”

His approval rating dropped to 43 percent from 66 percent after he took office on June 8, the Mainichi newspaper said today. Thirty-six percent of those surveyed said they’ll vote for the DPJ while 17 percent chose the LDP and 15 percent picked Your Party. The newspaper polled 1,072 people on July 7-8 and didn’t provide a margin of error.

While the world’s second-biggest economy continues to recover from recession, it is still grappling with 12 years of deflation, and the unemployment rate reached a five-month high of 5.2 percent in May. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is down 9.6 percent this year.