Japan’s Economy Grows 3.8%, Less Than First Estimated

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy expanded less than initially estimated in the fourth quarter as companies pared spending and stockpiles as deflation deepened.

Gross domestic product rose at an annual 3.8 percent pace, slower than the 4.6 percent reported in preliminary figures last month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The GDP deflator, a gauge of price trends, fell a record 2.8 percent.

The report suggests business spending remains the weak link of an economic recovery that has begun to spread from exporters to households. Renewed demand in Asia is helping Japanese companies such as Canon Inc. and Honda Motor Co., which may minimize an economic slowdown in the coming months as government stimulus measures fade.

“A rebound in capital investment is key for Japan’s economy to regain momentum,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “While declines in investment are coming to a halt, it’s hard to tell when companies will start to beef up spending again.”

The yen traded at 90.46 per dollar at 9:47 a.m. in Tokyo from 90.40 before the report. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.7 percent.

The median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 4 percent growth on an annualized basis. The economy grew 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, slower than the 1.1 percent first reported.

‘Receded Slightly’

“Concerns about a double-dip recession have receded slightly,” Keisuke Tsumura, a parliamentary secretary at the Cabinet Office, told reporters in Tokyo. “There are budding signs for self-sustained recovery.”

Private inventory shaved 0.1 percentage point from growth, after the initial report showed it added to GDP, the main reason for today’s revision. Automakers may have responded to higher demand by paring stockpiles, Tsumura said. Capital spending rose 0.9 percent in the three months through December from the previous quarter, compared with a 1 percent increase estimated last month.

About a third of factory capacity is sitting idle and falling prices are squeezing profit margins, prompting companies such as Sony Corp. to cut costs to protect their earnings. Sony last month narrowed its forecast for a net loss, saying it is approaching its target of trimming 330 billion yen ($3.7 billion) in costs by eliminating jobs and shutting factories.

Providing Incentives

The government has been providing incentives to buy energy- efficient cars and home appliances. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama unveiled a 7.2 trillion yen stimulus package in December. Consumer spending, which makes up about 60 percent of the economy, climbed 0.7 percent, unchanged from the initial report, the government said today.

An increase in household outlays may not last as government stimulus measures fade and a shortfall in demand keeps suppressing prices, said Hiroshi Watanabe, a senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. “The stimulus program gives a one-shot boost to the economy, but it won’t substantially increase consumer spending,” he said.

Finance Minister Naoto Kan last week renewed calls for the Bank of Japan to help arrest deflation, saying he hopes prices will rise this year. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi said last month that prices may not be improving as quickly as he had expected.

The drop in the GDP deflator, the broadest measure of prices in the economy, was the largest since comparable data were made available in 1955. The government initially reported a 3 percent decline in the gauge.

‘Worst-Case Scenario’

“The deflator number really is terrible at the moment,” said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. “The worst-case scenario is that if you never get out of deflation, you’re running an economy with interest rates that are persistently too high, which damages growth and also makes it impossible to stabilize public finances.”

The government’s options to combat falling prices have been limited by its swelling debt burden, the largest in the industrialized world. Kan said yesterday maintaining fiscal discipline is a significant challenge for policy makers. The central bank has kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent since December 2008.

Still, some companies are benefiting from rebounding demand in Asia, particularly China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and Japan’s biggest overseas market. Canon, the world’s biggest camera maker, forecasts sales volume will rise 10 percent in China this year, Masaya Maeda, director of the company, said this week. Honda Motor’s sales in China rose 40 percent in February from a year earlier.

Exports increased 5 percent from the previous quarter, unchanged from the preliminary figures. Net exports, or shipments minus imports, added 0.5 percentage point to growth, the same as last month’s reading.

Some reports for January indicate the export revival is filtering to workers. The unemployment rate dropped to a 10- month low of 4.9 percent and wages climbed for the first time in 20 months.