Economy Woes Shake Up Campaign for California Governor as Voters Seek Answers

17th May, 2009

LOS ANGELES — If a campaign consultant were in search of a billable candidate in the inchoate race to succeed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, it might seem sensible to seek out a Democrat.
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Vying for California Governor’s MansionGraphic
Vying for California Governor’s Mansion

Democrats hold a whopping advantage in registered voters in California, and President Obama beat Senator John McCain here by 24 percentage points last fall. Republicans seeking statewide office have largely gotten clobbered in recent years, and the party’s standard-bearer — Mr. Schwarzenegger, barred by term limits from running for re-election — has one of the lowest approval ratings for a governor in nearly 25 years.

But the dynamics of the 2010 race, which has come into full swing in recent weeks, are already proving to be topsy-turvy, with Democrats trying to buck a gubernatorial slump against a millionaire-peppered group of moderate Republicans.

Many voters in California, despondent over the state’s dire fiscal straits, high unemployment and stream of businesses flowing to other states, say they value competence and solutions more than party affiliation or celebrity.

“What the voters will be looking for in this election is someone who has some answers,” said Bruce E. Cain, a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley. “I do not remember the morale of the state being so low.”

That malaise seems to infuse even those running for governor, a job whose innate challenges (including a population of nearly 39 million) are made all the more difficult by a State Constitution that requires a two-thirds vote by lawmakers to pass a budget or a tax increase and by a ballot initiative system that allows voters to set their own rules with just a simple majority.

“It’s not much of career builder; it’s more of a career ender,” said Jerry Brown, 71, the state’s attorney general, who was governor from 1975 to 1983. “But I feel I could bear that better than the other candidates.”

In addition to Mr. Brown — who has yet to declare his candidacy formally but has not been shy about his desire to run — the Democratic field includes Mayor Gavin Newsom of San Francisco, who is madly trying to Twitter his way beyond the single issue of same-sex marriage, which has so far defined him. His friendly counterpart to the south, meanwhile, Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa of Los Angeles, has been coy about his intentions — he ducked the state party’s convention this month — but has a reputation for jumping into races at the last minute. (State Treasurer Bill Lockyer has been floated as a possible dark horse.)

Mr. Brown, Mr. Newsom and Mr. Villaraigosa all have high-profile jobs but an uphill battle in front of them. Democrats have lost six of the last eight races for governor, including a 2003 recall, despite having a lock on most other statewide offices.

“Any Democrat who thinks that Republicans have no chance in this race should take a look at recent history,” said Garry South, a Democratic consultant who is working on the Newsom campaign.

On the Republican side are two Silicon Valley millionaires — a former eBay chief executive, Meg Whitman, and the state’s insurance commissioner, Steven Poizner, the only Republican to win a statewide office in the last election. They are joined by Tom Campbell, a former congressman who flies below most voters’ radar screens.

The Republicans have been focused on taxes and the state’s regulatory environment, which they suggest combine to drive companies out of the state, as well as on job creation, though they have offered few specific plans. They are also presenting themselves as a check on the power of the Democrats, who control both houses of the State Legislature.

“In the general election our point will be, ‘Do you want just one party in charge?’ ” Mr. Campbell said.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Mr. Obama’s popularity here and on his campaign’s inroads in drawing young people to the polls. Mr. Newsom, 41, in particular, has been angling for younger voters, announcing his candidacy via Twitter. (He claims 400,000 followers and says he posts “90 percent” of his own tweets.)

At the same time, Mr. Newsom, who made a tidy fortune as the founder of Plumpjack, a wine, lodging and restaurant group, is also looking to pump up his moderate, pro-business credentials with more conservative voters who might be skeptical of his well-publicized embrace of same-sex marriage and his liberal San Francisco pedigree.

“I’m a pro-job Democrat,” he said. “I’ve been very progressive when it comes to social issues and pragmatic when it comes to business.”

Most of the candidates agree that social issues will probably play only a small role in the election because of the state’s economic plight.

“I don’t think social issues are the core burning problem facing the state,” Mr. Poizner said.

Candidates from both parties also seem to agree that it is a good idea to distance themselves from Mr. Schwarzenegger, whose popularity has slipped as the state has been buffeted by recession, high foreclosure rates and chronic budget battles. That includes Mr. Villaraigosa, even though he continues to make appearances with Mr. Schwarzenegger.

“He is doing as good a job as he can do,” said Mr. Villaraigosa, adding that the only way to get California back on track is “to make fundamental changes to the way we govern.”

That might include seemingly radical solutions like calling a constitutional convention to consider changing some provisions, including the two-thirds rule in the State Legislature.

Republicans are also looking to present themselves as reformers.

Mr. Poizner, for example, who got rich running technology companies, is positioning himself as the only Republican with business credentials who has demonstrated that he can win statewide office. Mr. Poizner is also pushing education reform, favoring a large expansion of charter schools. “I am going to be very specific,” he said. “And it will drive my political consultants nuts.”

Likewise, Ms. Whitman seems to be striking an outsider attitude, saying she wants to bring her experiences at eBay to bear on the state’s budget.

“I want to run Sacramento a bit more like a business,” she said. “We have a government we can’t afford.”

Mr. Campbell, a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley, seems to strike a more placid tone and says he can easily work with a Democratic-controlled Legislature. “Oh gosh, yes I can!” he said.

Such post-partisanship was supposed to be a hallmark of Mr. Schwarzenegger’s second term, which he began in 2007 with a call for “the party of California” to come together to fix the state. Two years later, however, the consensus is that despite all the potential takers, running the State of California is a miserable job.

“Most governors leave discredited and unpopular,” said Mr. Brown, who at this early point in the contest is leading among Democrats in most polls.