Retail Sales Probably Fell in February: U.S. Economy Preview

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers probably declined in February as blizzards kept Americans away from malls and auto-dealer showrooms, economists said before a government report this week.

Purchases dropped 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent gain the prior month, according to the median estimate of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures on March 12. Other reports may show the trade gap widened in January and consumers grew more confident this month.

Figures last week showing the U.S. lost fewer jobs in February than anticipated, overcoming the effects of the snowstorms that caused some companies to temporarily close, signals employment is on the verge of accelerating. More hiring and wage increases will be critical in lifting consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.

“Retail sales likely would have squeaked out a modest gain if not for the severe snowstorms,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Nonetheless, “consumers will have to spend more freely for the recovery to sustain itself.”

A Labor Department report March 5 showed the economy lost 36,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent for a second month, indicating the labor market is stabilizing.

President Barack Obama, speaking at a Washington-area energy company, said the job report was “actually better than expected.” Even so, he said the number of unemployed is “more than we should tolerate” and urged Congress to pass a jobs bill to help lower unemployment.

Auto Sales

Auto sales fell last month to an annual pace of 10.4 million vehicles from 10.8 million in January, according to industry data last week. Toyota Motor Corp. sales fell 8.7 percent from a year earlier as it struggled with global recalls that halted demand for some models. Ford Motor Co., overcoming the snowstorms that curbed showroom traffic, beat General Motors Co. in monthly sales for the first time since 1998.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales were probably little changed after a 0.6 percent gain the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Chain stores turned in a better-than-forecast performance last month, compared with a low point last year, industry figures showed last week. Macy’s Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and Gap Inc. beat analysts’ estimates in February as holiday sales and spring collections tempted consumers to go shopping in a month of record snowfalls.

Same-Store Sales

February comparable-store sales climbed 4.1 percent, topping the Retail Metrics 3 percent estimate. It was the sixth straight monthly gain and the biggest in 27 months. Purchases fell 4.1 percent in February 2009, Ken Perkins, president of Swampscott, Massachusetts-based Retail Metrics, said last week.

TJX Corporation Inc., an off-price apparel chain, reported a 16 percent sales increase in the four weeks ended Feb. 27 from a year earlier.

“We achieved these sales despite the harsh snowstorms that affected many regions in the country,” said Sherry Lang, investor vice president, in a teleconference on March 4. “The month ended on a stronger note than we had anticipated.”

Households are feeling less pessimistic. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for March probably rose to 73.8 from 73.6 a month earlier, according to the Bloomberg survey before the March 12 release.

Fewer Claims

In a sign that job losses are abating, a report from the Labor Department on March 11 may show initial jobless claims fell to 460,000 last week from 469,000 the previous week, according to economists surveyed.

Stocks have recovered from a January slump prompted by concerns of a possible Greek default and government plans to boost oversight over banks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 6 percent since the end of January.

The economy grew at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, the strongest showing in more than six years as companies tried to stabilize inventories, the government reported last month. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg early last month forecast growth will slow to 3 percent in this quarter.

A Commerce Department report on March 12 may show business inventories rose 0.2 percent in January after dropping 0.2 percent the prior month, according to economists surveyed.

As companies begin rebuilding stockpiles and consumer purchases recover, demand for imports is rising. That probably caused the trade deficit to widen to $41 billion in January from $40.2 billion in December, according to the survey median before a March 11 report from the Commerce Department. The collapse in trade earlier last year brought the deficit down to a near- decade low of $25.8 billion in May.

Bloomberg Survey

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Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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Whlsale Inv. MOM% 3/10 Jan. -0.8% 0.2%
Federal Budget $ Blns 3/10 Feb. -193.9 -210.0
Trade Balance $ Blns 3/11 Jan. -40.2 -41.0
Initial Claims ,000’s 3/11 27-Feb 469 460
Cont. Claims ,000’s 3/11 20-Feb 4500 4495
Retail Sales MOM% 3/12 Feb. 0.5% -0.2%
Retail ex-autos MOM% 3/12 Feb. 0.6% 0.0%
Retail exauto/gas MOM% 3/12 Feb. 0.6% 0.3%
U of Mich Conf. Index 3/12 March P 73.6 73.8
Business Inv. MOM% 3/12 Jan. -0.2% 0.2%
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