China’s Industrial Production Surges as Trade Rebounds in Asia

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China’s industrial production jumped, exports fell the least in 13 months and imports surged in November as rebounding trade with Asian nations underscored the region’s role in leading the world recovery.

Factory output climbed 19.2 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing yesterday. Exports slid 1.2 percent, the smallest drop in 13 months, and imports surged 26.7 percent, a separate report showed.

China’s exports to Southeast Asian nations including Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore rose 21 percent in November and imports from those countries jumped 45 percent. Growth in Asia may accelerate to 5.75 percent next year, almost twice the likely pace of the expansion of the world economy, the International Monetary Fund says.

“China’s recovery is well on track and emerging Asian economies are the first beneficiaries,” said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. “Improving exports will continue to boost China’s industrial output growth in the coming months.”

Asian stocks rose after the data.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent, trimming this year’s gain to 78.4 percent, on concern that monetary policy may tighten. Asset bubbles could threaten the recovery and policy makers are on alert for inflation after yesterday’s data showed that consumer prices rose 0.6 percent from a year earlier, the first increase in 10 months.

Sinopec, BMW

China’s gross domestic product will expand 9.3 percent next year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists, after growth accelerated to 8.9 percent in the past quarter on record lending, a $586 billion, two-year stimulus package and subsidies for consumer purchases.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, the country’s biggest refiner, said this month that it plans to expand the capacity of its second-biggest oil-processing plant by a third to meet rising demand. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s largest maker of luxury cars, said last month that it will build a new factory in China to tap an auto market set to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest this year.

China’s industrial-output growth was higher than the 18.2 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists. Steel product output reached a record.

Retail sales climbed 15.8 percent, compared with 16.2 percent in October, according to the statistics bureau. Producer prices fell 2.1 percent.

‘Robust’ Momentum

Urban fixed-asset investment gained 32.1 percent in the January-to-November period from a year earlier after climbing 33.1 percent through October, yesterday’s data showed.

Peng Wensheng, a Hong Kong-based economist with Barclays Capital, said “underlying momentum” in the economy “remained robust despite some moderation in investment and sales.”

New loans topped forecasts, at 294.8 billion yuan, and M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew a record 29.7 percent.

In the trade figures, exports to the U.S. fell 1.7 percent from a year earlier, the smallest decline since shipments began to tumble in November 2008. Exports to Taiwan climbed 13.5 percent, while those to India rose 26 percent.

Overall, imports climbed the most in 16 months because of rising commodity prices, the boost to domestic demand from stimulus policies and the low base in November 2008. The trade surplus narrowed to $19.1 billion.

“The first quarter will be the peak for China’s economy: everything will be firing on all cylinders,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong.

China will contribute about 94 percent of an estimated 4.9 percent expansion in Asia excluding Japan this year and almost 70 percent of a 7.9 percent expansion next year, according to Kowalczyk. China’s imports will surge as much as 40 percent in the first quarter of 2010, he forecasts.

This year’s record expansion of credit has prompted plans by lenders including Bank of China Ltd. to replenish capital. The government this week adjusted its stimulus policies to curb property speculation, while extending subsidies for rural purchases of consumer goods and pledging a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2010.

--Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin, Zhang Dingmin. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Russell Ward.