Secret talks aim to heal Afghan political splits

Afghan politicians, power-brokers and diplomats are playing a game of intrigue that could broker a compromise to bury the divisive legacy of last month’s disputed presidential election.

Western missions in Kabul say the country’s destiny will be decided by a recount of hundreds of thousands of suspect votes that could overturn the lead of Hamid Karzai, the incumbent president.
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Behind closed doors, however, opposition leaders and foreign envoys are in talks that could boost the influence of technocrats and trim presidential powers.

Yet the participants will have to juggle such an array of ethnic, regional and political factors that any unity government might be less capable of confronting a Taliban insurgency than its predecessor.

“Just imagine that you’re taking birds from different species and forcing them to live together in a cage,” says Waheed Mojda, a political analyst. “They are only staying in the cage because they fear the cat – the Taliban.”

The west’s worry is that disputed polls will trigger a prolonged power struggle while Barack Obama, the US president, is battling to convince Congress to back a counter-insurgency strategy aimed at winning Afghan support.

Evidence of fraud has prompted a UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission to order a partial recount that could invalidate an existing tally that gives Mr Karzai outright victory over Abdullah Abdullah, his main rival.

Yet a second-round run-off might not be feasible before winter snows melt, raising the risk of a vacuum that could be exploited by insurgents behind bombings in Kabul, including an attack on Thursday that killed six Italian soldiers and 10 Afghan civilians.

There is a chance that a second round might be held sooner than expected. An official at the Independent Election Commission said staff were told on Thursday to ensure they had supplies in case they had to stage a run-off. Mr Abdullah and Mr Karzai have both said they believe the complaints process must take its course, although the president has played down prospects for a second round, saying reports of rigging are exaggerated.

Mr Abdullah, who served Mr Karzai as foreign minister before they fell out, said on Thursday he would not join a coalition. “My point right from the beginning was not to get a post in the government, but rather to bring change ,” he said.

The impasse has encouraged manoeuvring by other presidential hopefuls. Sarwar Ahmedzai, who has a strong following in parts of the Pashtun south, says he made a proposal to UN and US diplomats under which Mr Karzai would remain president but create new posts to allow technocrats to oversee security, economic and foreign policy.

Any compromise would need to balance competing ethnic interests in the face of growing alienation in the Pashtun areas, the main theatre of the Taliban insurgency, and discontent among northern minorities who back Mr Abdullah.

Analysts say Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank executive who also ran against Mr Karzai, might be a natural choice to try to rally Pashtuns. “Ghani and Karzai are holding private meetings to make sure Pashtuns don’t lose power,” said a senior member of Mr Karzai’s campaign team. The insider said there had been no direct contact between Mr Karzai and Mr Abdullah.

Appeasing northern sentiment will also be complex. Analysts say figures such as Ata Mohammed Nur, governor of Balkh province, might wield even more influence than Mr Abdullah, whose friends in Iran and Russia will want a say. With relations between Mr Karzai and western allies strained, and foreign diplomats divided over strategy, it is unclear how much influence Europe and Washington will be able to exert.

But for Afghans, who braved Taliban rockets and threats of mutilation to vote, the spectacle of flawed elections giving way to a messy compromise might undermine support for democracy.

“We have to have a fair outcome,” says Mohammed Qasim Akhgar, editor of Hashte-e-Sobh, a daily newspaper. “Otherwise we’ll have to to hold a funeral to bid farewell to democracy.”