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Friday, July 25, 2014

Rupee Has Weekly Gain as India Eases Bond Cap for Foreigners

India’s rupee completed a weekly gain on optimism the nation will attract more capital as limits on inward investment in government debt and the insurance business are relaxed.
The Reserve Bank of India this week increased the cap for foreign institutional investors by $5 billion and said additional purchases must be in notes maturing in at least three years. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said yesterday the cabinet approved a budget proposal of allowing 49 percent foreign direct investment in the insurance industry.
“The decisions to raise the FII debt limit and taking the process of FDI insurance forward are clearly positive for the rupee,” said Gaurav Sharma, a senior currency analyst at Religare Commodities Ltd. in Noida, outside New Delhi. “There are inflows happening but the month-end dollar demand from oil importers is limiting rupee gains.”
The currency rose 0.3 percent this week to 60.1050 per dollar at the close in Mumbai, the first gain since the five days ended July 4, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. It was unchanged from yesterday.
One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell 24 basis points, or 0.24 percentage point, to 5.58 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It dropped 94 basis points from a week ago.
Three-month offshore non-deliverable forwards on the rupee were little changed at 60.78 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in the greenback.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in Mumbai at kgoyal@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Regan at jregan19@bloomberg.net Jeanette Rodrigues

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Indian Bonds Head for Biggest Weekly Gain in More Than a Month

India’s 10-year bonds headed for their biggest weekly advance in more than a month on optimism a revision of caps on debt purchases by foreigners will boost inflows and a pickup in rains will restrain food prices.
India raised the limit on the amount of government bonds that overseas investors can buy by $5 billion to $25 billion this week. The move is a catalyst for local bonds and the rupee in a “yield-hungry” world, according to BNP Paribas SA. The nation simultaneously cut the quota meant only for long-term investors such as sovereign wealth funds to $5 billion from $10 billion, thus keeping the overall limit for foreign investment in sovereign notes unchanged at $30 billion.
“The raising of foreign limits, recent progress of the monsoons and the easing of inflation in June are all positive factors for the bond markets,” Sujoy Kumar Das, head of fixed income at Religare Invesco Asset Management Co. in Mumbai, said by phone. “It’s been a good week and we expect yields to remain soft, given India’s improving macroeconomic indicators.”
The yield on the 8.83 percent notes due November 2023 slid 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, from July 18 to 8.66 percent as of 10:20 a.m. in Mumbai, according to the central bank’s trading system. That’s the biggest weekly decline since the period ended June 6. The rate was little changed today.
The shortfall in the June-September monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, was 24 percent of the 50-year average, the weather bureau said yesterday. That compares with a 43 percent deficit on July 11. The revival has eased concern that deficient rainfall will hurt farm output and boost food prices, which make up about half of India’s consumer-inflation basket.
The nation plans to sell 140 billion rupees ($2.3 billion) of bonds at an auction today, including 70 billion rupees of new 10-year debt. The Reserve Bank of India will also conduct seven-and 14-day repurchase auctions today.
One-year interest-rate swaps, derivative contracts used to guard against swings in funding costs, rose one basis point this week and today to 8.42 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shikhar Balwani in Mumbai at sbalwani@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Regan at jregan19@bloomberg.net Robin Ganguly

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Cotton Crop in India Set for Record as Oilseeds Shunned

Cotton production in India, the world’s second-largest grower, is set to climb to an all-time high as delays in monsoon rains prompt farmers to switch from soybeans and peanuts, the nation’s biggest cotton trader said.
The harvest is poised to expand as much as 2.6 percent to 40 million bales of 170 kilograms (375 pounds) each in the year starting Oct. 1, according to B.K. Mishra, chairman of the Cotton Corp. of India. While the area is increasing from 11.7 million hectares (28.9 million acres), the harvest will be delayed by the worst start to the monsoon since 2009, he said. Cotton Corp. buys the crop at government-set minimum prices.
Futures have dropped for 11 straight weeks in New York, capping the longest slump in 55 years, on concern that global inventories are climbing as demand slows from China, the largest user. A higher crop in India, the top shipper after the U.S., may curb any rally in prices that fell 20 percent in 2014.
“The time for crops like soybeans and peanuts has passed so farmers will look at cotton as the last resort,” said Prerana Desai, research head at Kotak Commodity Services Ltd. in Mumbai. “Planting can catch up and we’ll definitely end up seeing higher acreage. Whether we’ll have another record crop or not we have to wait and see.”
Futures on ICE Futures U.S. tumbled 15 percent in June, the most since May 2012, and traded at 67.73 cents a pound today. Prices reached a two-year high of 97.35 cents on March 26. The contract for July delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. fell 0.3 percent to 18,400 rupees ($306) per bale today, extending losses this year to 7.2 percent.

Chinese Demand

India will struggle to boost exports as demand from China, the biggest buyer of Indian cotton, remains weak and U.S. supplies are rising, Desai said. Shipments are seen at 11.4 million bales in 2013-2014, the Cotton Advisory Board says.
“Unless and until prices in India fall to dramatically low levels, exports will remain subdued next year,” she said.
Seeding of crops from cotton to soybeans and rice was delayed in June by a 43 percent deficit in monsoon rain, which accounts for more than 70 percent of India’s annual precipitation. The shortage narrowed to 25 percent yesterday, accelerating planting, according to the India Meteorological Department.
While traders in India are predicting an increase in cotton output in 2014-2015, UBS AG expects the delay in planting in key growing areas to reduce production.

‘Lost Ground’

“At this point it’s very difficult for farmers to make up for the lost ground,” Wayne Gordon, a commodities analyst at UBS in Singapore, said by phone. “Even in the most optimistic scenario they are likely to miss out about 1.5 million hectares to 2 million hectares. And if rain continues to be a problem it could be even worse than that.”
Farmers seeded cotton on 5.6 million hectares by July 18, 44 percent less than the 10.05 million hectares in the same period a year earlier, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
The rain delays over most parts of India and the deficit are prompting growers to switch to cotton as it consumes less water, Cotton Corp.’s Mishra said by phone from Mumbai July 18.
“Sowing will pick up now,” said K.R. Kranthi, director at the state-run Central Institute for Cotton Research. “If it hadn’t rained by now, that would have been a major concern. There could be a fall of 5 to 10 percent in area because of delayed rains. Still, there is no need for any panic.”
Crop picking will be delayed by 20 days to 30 days in the northern Indian states of Punjab and Haryana and may be about 45 days late in the biggest producing states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, Mishra said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at pparija@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net Thomas Kutty Abraham

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

India’s Rupee Rises as Monsoon Revival Tempers Inflation Concern

India’s rupee strengthened the most in more than a week as a pickup in seasonal rainfall tempered concern inflation will accelerate.
The deficit in the June-September monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, has narrowed to 27 percent of the 50-year average, the weather department said yesterday. The gap was 43 percent on July 11. Gains in India’s consumer-price index slowed to 7.31 percent in June, the least since the gauge was introduced in January 2012.
The rupee climbed 0.1 percent to 60.1875 per dollar as of 10:30 a.m. in Mumbai, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest gain since July 11. The yield on the 8.83 percent sovereign notes due November 2023 was little changed at 8.69 percent, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s trading system. That’s the lowest since July 4.
“A revival in monsoon rains would be seen as a positive,” said Anindya Banerjee, a currency analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd. in Mumbai. “The rupee is likely to remain range-bound as the RBI seeks to keep the currency stable.”
The rupee also gained amid increased capital inflows, said Banerjee. Global investors have pumped more than $4 billion into the nation’s bonds and stocks this month as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government unveiled plans to narrow the budget deficit and allow more foreign investment in industries.
One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, fell 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, to 5.97 percent in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Three-month offshore non-deliverable forwards on the rupee rose 0.1 percent to 60.94 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in the greenback.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in Mumbai at kgoyal@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Regan at jregan19@bloomberg.net Anil Varma, Robin Ganguly

Monday, July 21, 2014

China’s Xiaomi Targets India in Smartphone Sales Push

In just four years, Xiaomi Corp. has evolved from startup to outselling Apple Inc. in China by offering inexpensive devices packed with high-end features. Now it’s targeting India.
After using social media to tap the Chinese diaspora in markets including Singapore, Xiaomi is teaming with Flipkart.com to sell its Mi3 phone starting today for 13,999 rupees ($232). The partnership with India’s biggest e-commerce operator is a break from Xiaomi’s usual strategy of selling phones solely through its own website.
The push into India is part of Chief Executive Officer Lei Jun’s drive to deliver a fivefold boost in sales to 100 million units next year and challenge Samsung Electronics Co. and Apple globally. Beijing-based Xiaomi is entering a market where Samsung and Indian makers account for 60 percent of sales, wireless carriers don’t subsidize the costs of devices, and the pool of Chinese speakers familiar with its products is smaller.
“No one knows Xiaomi in India,” said Katyayan Gupta, a technology analyst at Forrester Research Inc. in New Delhi. “I don’t even know their phones. They’ll have a lot of education to do. It will help them to tie up with a trusted brand in India.”
Xiaomi is starting sales in 10 new markets including Brazil and Russia. While the company started its own websites in Singapore and Taiwan, India has proved more difficult because its infrastructure for delivering packages and collecting payments is underdeveloped.

$10 Billion Valuation

“Building an e-commerce effort in India is a lofty effort, not something we would be able to do quickly,” Hugo Barra, vice president of Xiaomi, said in a phone interview.
Xiaomi also is partnering with local e-commerce operators for its expansion to the Philippines and Indonesia, Barra said.
The Mi3, which sells for less than a third of the price for an iPhone 5s, still sports high-end specifications with a full high-definition screen, 13-megapixel camera and a Qualcomm Inc. Snapdragon processor.
Xiaomi’s success in selling smartphones in China, where it was No. 3 in the first quarter according to researcher Canalys, has seen its valuation surge. Xiaomi said last August that a fundraising round valued it at $10 billion.
Xiaomi, now the No. 6 producer globally, has no plans for an initial public offering within five years, Lei said in September. The company shipped about 10 million smartphones in the first quarter, according to IDC.

Micromax, Karbonn

Xiaomi’s strategy may help it gain exposure in India’s smartphone market, which is growing faster than China’s. About 250 million smartphones will be sold in India this year, according to Brad Rees, chief executive officer of Mediacells, a London-based marketing company.
Samsung accounted for 35 percent of India’s smartphone sales in the March quarter, while homegrown brands Micromax Informatics Ltd. had 15 percent and Karbonn Mobiles held 10 percent, according to researcher IDC.
Nearly 80 percent of smartphones purchased in India cost less than $200, according to IDC. Cost matters in India as the phones are bought upfront, unlike in the U.S. where they are typically sold with a service contract.
Flipkart’s experience with smartphones was a key reason behind Xiaomi’s decision, according to Barra.
The Indian company partnered with Motorola Mobility to exclusively sell the Moto smartphone series in India, with 1 million of the phones sold in five months, Flipkart Chief Executive Officer Sachin Bansal said.

More Models

“Motorola is a known brand, people here know what Motorola is, so buying those devices online would be easier,” said Anshul Gupta, an analyst with Gartner Inc. “Initially, it’s going to be a challenge for Xiaomi.”
The company hired Manu Jain, the co-founder of clothing e-commerce site Jabong, to run the India operations, and it plans to increase workers at the business to about 20, including staff to run two service centers, by the end of the year.
Xiaomi will contract other companies for a further 34 service centers and hire software developers to build applications focused on Indian users. Barra declined to say how much the company is investing in India.
After starting with the Mi3, Xiaomi will offer the Redmi 1S at 6,999 rupees and the Redmi note for 9,999 rupees, according to its Indian website. Even at those prices, Xiaomi will have its work cut out to win sales in the world’s second-most populous nation.
“Xiaomi is really a new company, people are not aware of the brand, so there will be some hesitation,” Gartner’s Gupta said. “This is a very competitive market.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Bianca Vázquez Toness in New Delhi at btoness@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net Robert Fenner

Sunday, July 20, 2014

India’s 10-Year Bonds, Rupee Advance as Rain Deficit Narrows

India’s 10-year bonds advanced and the rupee gained as a pickup in monsoon rains eased concern inflation will accelerate.
The shortfall in the June-September monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 percent of India’s annual precipitation, was 34 percent of the 50-year average, the weather department said July 18. That compares with 43 percent on July 11. A weak start to the monsoon has delayed the planting of some crops, threatening to push up food costs that account for about half of the consumer-price index.
“Some optimism is creeping into the markets on account of the improvement in rains,” Killol Pandya, a Mumbai-based senior fixed-income fund manager at LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Co., said by phone. “Still, that isn’t a game-changer and we need to keep an eye on the geopolitical risks being fueled by conflicts in other parts of the world.”
The yield on India’s sovereign notes due November 2023 fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 8.75 percent as of 10:21 a.m. in Mumbai, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s trading system.
The rupee rose 0.1 percent to 60.2050 per dollar, its first gain in six days. It capped its biggest weekly loss in a month on July 18 as the prospects of higher U.S. interest rates and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine hurt demand for riskier assets.
One-month implied volatility in the rupee, a gauge of expected swings used to price options, rose five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.57 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Three-month offshore non-deliverable forwards gained 0.1 percent to 60.98 per dollar. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in the U.S. currency.
One-year interest-rate swaps, derivative contracts used to guard against swings in funding costs, were unchanged at 8.41 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shikhar Balwani in Mumbai at sbalwani@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Regan at jregan19@bloomberg.net Robin Ganguly, Anil Varma

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Microsoft Eliminating 18,000 Jobs as Nadella Streamlines

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) said it will eliminate as many as 18,000 jobs, the largest round of cuts in its history, as Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella integrates Nokia Oyj’s handset unit and slims down the software maker.
The restructuring, amounting to about 14 percent of its workforce, includes 12,500 Nokia factory and professional positions -- half the number of employees added in the acquisition. At Microsoft, cuts will be in sales, marketing and engineering. The reductions are expected to be completed by June 30, 2015, and will result in a pretax charge of $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion, Microsoft said in a statement today.
Nadella, who took over from Steve Ballmer in February, is retooling the company’s structure as it seeks to compete with nimbler rivals offering mobile and Internet-based software and services. He’s also working to wring a promised $600 million in annual savings from Microsoft’s Nokia deal, which added 25,000 workers in April, bringing the total to about 127,100.
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“Microsoft needs to be a leaner tech giant over the coming years in order to strike the right balance of growth and profitability around its cloud and mobile endeavors,” said Daniel Ives, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets & Co. who rates Microsoft stock the equivalent of a buy. The cuts are roughly twice as big as Wall Street expected, Ives said in a note today.
The shares rose 1 percent to $44.53 at the close in New York. They have advanced 19 percent this year.

Streamline Management

The company will start with 13,000 cuts today and the majority of eliminated workers will be notified in the next six months, Nadella said in an e-mail to employees. Microsoft will also have fewer layers of management and will make changes to its outside vendor staff, he said.
“The first step to building the right organization for our ambitions is to realign our workforce,” he wrote.
Last week, in his first mission statement, Nadella said the Redmond, Washington-based software maker needs to become more focused and efficient and requires changes to its engineering teams. He pledged updates on the new plans later this month, and said he would provide more details when the company reports earnings on July 22.
Microsoft investors are likely to view the cuts as a positive sign, illustrating that Nadella is trying to get costs and headcount under control and that he understands the challenges facing Microsoft, Ives said.

Earnings Growth

“We view this as another step in the right direction from the Street’s perspective,” he said in an interview. “Nadella is not wearing rose-colored glasses.”
The reductions may add 30 cents a share to Microsoft’s profit in fiscal 2016, estimated Kirk Materne, an analyst at Evercore Partners Inc., who rates Microsoft the equivalent of a buy.
The company has needed to cut costs. Analysts on average estimate that profit before certain items increased 1 percent in the fiscal year that ended last month, after a decline in fiscal 2013 and little growth the prior year.
Given the stock’s gains in recent months on optimism about Nadella’s plans, it’s time for the company to post earnings growth that validates that enthusiasm, said Brent Thill, an analyst at UBS AG, who recommends buying the stock. Microsoft spends far more on product development and research than rivals such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Google Inc. (GOOG) and gets a smaller return for that investment, he said.
“They have been spending on a lot of things that haven’t come to fruition,” he said. “The Nadella era will be about putting more money on bigger hits and not sprinkling a little everywhere.”

Mobile Focus

In appearances at company and technology events since he took the helm, Nadella has reiterated that the company’s priorities are mobile and cloud products, as he works to shift Microsoft away from its longtime core business of software for personal computers. Nadella has signaled a desire to produce software for rival operating systems, like Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android, and has shuffled management in areas like marketing, business development and the Xbox game console.
While Microsoft has implemented smaller, intermittent job cuts in individual businesses -- for example, trimming a few hundred positions in advertising sales and marketing in 2012, and some marketing jobs across the company earlier that same year -- the 39-year-old company has only undertaken a companywide restructuring affecting thousands of workers once before, in 2009, at the start of the recession. Over the course of that year, the company cut 5,800 jobs, or about 5 percent of its workforce at the time.

Cost Savings

When Microsoft agreed to acquire Nokia’s device unit in September, the software maker pledged $600 million in yearly cost savings in the 18 months after the deal closed. While today’s layoffs are the company’s biggest ever, excluding the 12,500 positions being eliminated at Nokia, the 5,500 job cuts at Microsoft are smaller than those in 2009.
Microsoft’s engineering teams have traditionally been split between program managers, developers and testers. Now, with new cloud-based methods of building software, it often makes sense to have the developers test and fix bugs instead of a separate team of testers, Nadella said in an interview last week after releasing his memo.

Nokia Shift

The Nokia business, now part of Microsoft’s devices group, will also undergo some product changes as Microsoft ends output of phones running Google’s Android operating system and targets the “more affordable smartphone segments,” wrote devices group chief Stephen Elop, formerly the CEO of Nokia, in an e-mail posted on Microsoft’s site.
Microsoft will switch the Nokia X, which uses Android, to the Windows Phone operating system to broaden its products in the cheaper smartphone category. It will also align future high-end smartphone releases with major products from Windows and Microsoft’s applications team, Elop said.
The company will also combine what had been two units at Nokia -- Smart Devices and Mobile Phones -- into one under executive Jo Harlow. Phone engineering will be based in Salo, Finland, for high-end devices, and Tampere, Finland, for cheaper ones. Engineering work in Oulu, Finland, will be scaled down.
Engineering in Beijing and San Diego will see cuts, and phone production will be focused mainly in Hanoi. Nokia will shift repair and manufacturing operations from Hungary. The cuts may affect 1,100 employees in Finland and about 1,800 in Hungary, Microsoft said.
Elop’s memo was derided by publications from New York magazine to the Guardian, which titled a blog “How not to cut 12,500 jobs,” for starting with the greeting “Hello There,” and failing to get to the job cuts until the 11th paragraph of 14.

TV Programming

In the Xbox business, the company will shut down an ambitious effort to create original television programming, just one month after the debut of its first show. The Xbox Entertainment Studio will close in coming months, Xbox chief Phil Spencer said in an e-mail to employees.
Nancy Tellem, the ex-CBS executive brought in to lead the effort two years ago, will stay on with some of her team to complete shows in production, such as a “Halo” series, the company said. Tellem was hired by former CEO Ballmer to draw more entertainment consumers to Xbox by getting into original programming, like Amazon.com Inc. and Netflix Inc.
As the technology industry increasingly shifts toward mobile computing and cloud-based services, other technology companies have also sought to keep up by streamlining and firing workers. Hewlett-Packard Co. in May disclosed 16,000 more job cuts after reporting an 11th straight quarter of declining sales, on top of 34,000 in staff reductions already announced. International Business Machines Corp. also started dismissing workers earlier this year as part of a $1 billion restructuring to help it adapt to the industry’s changes.
To contact the reporter on this story: Dina Bass in Seattle at dbass2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Reed Stevenson at rstevenson15@bloomberg.net Jillian Ward, James Callan