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Saturday, December 18, 2010

Online Detectives Can Unmask Mr. or Ms. Wrong

Never mind whether your date is smart or good-looking. How do you know you aren’t flirting with a felon?

For a small fee, a nascent crop of companies wants to help you find out by running background checks on the potential flames you encounter on Match.com, eHarmony or any of the nation’s nearly 1,500 dating Web sites.

At the same time, at least two states, New York and New Jersey, have begun regulating Internet dating sites, and legal experts say they believe changes to the liability laws that protect such sites are on the horizon.

And you thought your mother was the only one who wanted to vet your love life.

The focus on background screenings comes as some 20 million Americans are using dating sites, more than double the number five years ago, according to the market research firm IBISWorld. While they are finding casual dates and even love, they are also encountering married people pretending to be single or, worse, sexual predators and convicted felons.

No one has put a number on how much violence stems from dating sites, according to groups that keep track of rape and other violent crimes, like the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics and the National Center for Victims of Crime.

Yet plenty of crime stories begin with two people skimming each other’s online dating profiles. Consider the widely reported case of Jeffrey Marsalis, a serial rapist in Philadelphia who met his victims on Match.com.

Such perils have been around since the dawn of the Internet, an ideal medium for complex cover-ups. But now that online dating is a billion-dollar industry, state officials, public safety advocates and enterprising businesses are calling for further safeguards.

Whether it is possible, however, to effectively screen people and make sites more truthful is unclear. After all, members are not always honest about their age and weight.

“What we want to do is provide some degree of safety,” said Robert Buchholz, a retired New York State Police captain who, with Andrew J. Scott, a former police chief in Boca Raton, Fla., founded MyMatchChecker.com, a Web site that went live in April, enabling people to request background checks on anyone they have met on a dating site.

Mr. Buchholz and Mr. Scott, who each have more than 30 years of law enforcement experience, said that having daughters inspired them to try to make online dating safer. Their company offers a basic background search for $9.95.

In addition to Web sites, a flurry of mobile phone apps aim to make background checks as quick and easy as ordering a pizza: Just plug in a couple of facts like a name and birth date. ValiMate, the creator of the Instant National Criminal Search app, even allows users to send the results of the check to a friend for added safety.

Date Check, from Intelius, encourages users to “look up before you hook up.” The app is marketed to women who want to perform a background check on would-be Romeos “in the time it takes to redo your lip gloss.” (Industry professionals say that predators are usually men.)

State officials are also pushing for safer Internet dating. A law that takes effect this month in New York State, the Internet Dating Safety Act, requires sites to post common-sense safety tips, like “meet in a public place.”

Assemblywoman Audrey I. Pheffer, a sponsor of the Internet law, said that it grew out of her realization that online dating had become ubiquitous, even among people she “never dreamed” would pursue romance online.

Some states have considered similar legislation but ultimately rejected it. New York’s law is like one passed in 2008 by New Jersey, which also requires dating sites with a membership fee to inform users whether they do criminal background checks (most do not).

Such legislation was championed by True.com, one of the first major online dating companies to screen members to determine if they are married, felons or sexual offenders (about 2 percent of those who try to sign up are rejected, they said). Ruben Buell, the company’s president, said that the type of checks it conducted were inexpensive. “You’re talking pennies per check.”

Still, most online dating companies question whether such checks can be effective. They contend that because state and county databases are incomplete, the checks give daters a false sense of security. Even advocates of criminal screenings concede that they are imperfect because the databases vary in quality and availability. Some counties, for instance, do not keep digital records. Others do not provide data about sex offenders.

“If I really knew that there was great ability for us to not let anyone on the site that shouldn’t be on the site, I would do it,” said Mandy Ginsberg, the general manager and executive vice president of Match.com. Background checks, she said, might lead daters to think everyone they encounter on the sites is safe. (Ms. Pheffer said she originally wanted background checks but decided against them for the same reason.)

Critics also point out that companies that conduct background screenings are not necessarily perfect. Some have mishandled information. Another concern involves mobile apps, which can provide personal information to people who may abuse it.

Braden Cox, a policy counsel for NetChoice, a group that advocates for Internet companies, said that background screenings were well intentioned but that most could be thwarted.

“Most people, thankfully, are good people on these Web sites,” said Mr. Cox, who speaks from experience: a few weeks ago he married a woman he met on Match.com.

Dating sites have no incentive to police their members. The Communications Decency Act absolves Internet service providers of liability because the sites are not considered the publishers of the information on their pages — their members are. The reasoning is that sites would not be able to operate if they were responsible for everything posted by their users. Lawyers have tried to get around this law, but “they usually fail,” said Brian Carver, an assistant professor at the School of Information at the University of California, Berkeley. “Every start-up depends on this protection.”

Parry Aftab, a lawyer and safety expert, says she is increasingly hearing about alarming cases involving online dating, like pedophiles who woo single mothers to get near their children. She expects there will be challenges to that immunity if sites accept money from members and have knowledge of criminal behavior.

Meanwhile, she advises singles to be cautious. “Don’t give up your heart so fast,” she said.

Gandhi warns of Hindu threat in India

Rahul Gandhi, the heir apparent to India’s ruling Congress party, said last year that radical Hindu groups could pose a bigger terrorist threat to India than Pakistan-based Muslim militants, according to diplomatic cables obtained by whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks.

The remark by Mr Gandhi, who is seen as India’s prime minister-in-waiting, was pounced on by the Hindu nationalist opposition Bharatiya Janata party, which said on Friday it would “seriously compromise India’s fight against terror and also our strategic security”.

According to the cable, Mr Gandhi expressed his concern at “homegrown” Hindu extremism to Timothy Roemer, US ambassador, at a lunch last year, after the ambassador asked about the threat posed by Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistan-based group behind the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.

Mr Gandhi cited “evidence of some support” for Lashkar-e-Taiba among India’s Muslim minority but said “the bigger threat may be the growth of radicalised Hindu groups, which create religious tensions and political confrontations with the Muslim community”, the cable said.

While Mr Roemer said Mr Gandhi was referring to tensions created by some of the BJP’s more polarising figures, such as Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat state, talk of “Hindu terror” has intensified since 2008, when authorities arrested 10 Hindus, including an army officer, on suspicion of res­pon­sibility for a bomb attack on a Muslim community.

Manish Tiwari, a Congress party spokesman, said on Friday that Mr Gandhi merely intended to convey that “terrorism and communalism of all kind is a threat to India. We need to remain vigilant against all acts of terrorism of all kinds, no matter who commits them.”

The cable offers insights into the intensely media-shy Mr Gandhi, whom Mr Roemer described in February this year, in a separate cable, as “increasingly sure-footed in his political instincts”. But the leaked documents will inflame tensions between the Congress party and the BJP, at a time when parliament has been paralysed for weeks by a scandal over the allocation of telecommunications ­spectrum.

Separately, a 2005 cable reported on the frustrations of the International Committee of the Red Cross at India’s “regular and widespread” torture of prisoners in the restive Muslim-majority Kashmir region.

Asian Stocks Gain as China Refrains From Raising Rates, U.S. Data Improves

Asian stocks rose for the second week this month, as steelmakers led gains, after China refrained from raising interest rates and U.S. data improved.

BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia’s largest steelmaker, advanced 9.1 percent in Sydney. Honda Motor Co., which counts North America as its biggest market, gained 3 percent in Tokyo. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., controlled by the nation’s construction ministry, lost 2.9 percent after a report that China will toughen controls in the property market. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest lender, lost 1.7 percent in Hong Kong after Moody’s Investors Service put Spain and Greece’s credit rating on review.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent to 133.59 this week. The gauge closed up on three days this week, and rose the most on Dec. 13, after China refrained from raising interest rates to cool inflation, and U.S. reports on consumer confidence, the trade deficit and claims for jobless benefits beat forecasts.

“Fears of an interest rate increase in China have not come to fruition so far,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion in Melbourne at Pengana Capital Ltd. “There’s a sense of relief in markets. This may be only temporary as Chinese authorities become increasingly concerned about the possibility of inflationary pressures undermining the economy’s longer-term growth prospects.”

Regional Benchmarks

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.9 percent, its seventh straight weekly advance and its longest winning streak since the eight-week period ended April 2. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.4 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 2 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.9 percent while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.9 percent this week. India’s Sensitive Index rose 1.8 percent. The measure was closed on Dec. 17 for a holiday.

Steelmakers led gains this week, with a gauge tracking material shares rising 1 percent, the most among the 10 industry groups on the MSCI Asia Pacific index.

BlueScope Steel, which receives 22 percent of its sales from Asia, rose 9.1 percent to A$2.29 in Sydney. JFE Holdings Inc., Japan’s second-largest steelmaker, rose 2.7 percent to 2,836 yen in Tokyo. JSW Steel Ltd., an Indian producer of the metal, jumped 12 percent to 1,164.75 rupees in Mumbai.

While China’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 28 months in November, building the case for Premier Wen Jiabao to raise interest rates, China instead ordered lenders on Dec. 10 to park more money with the central bank to counter the inflation threat.

Effective Tool

“The government seems to be using reserve requirements at the moment as a more effective tool,” Hugh Simon, co-manager of the Dreyfus Greater China Fund, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They need to have some relief about inflation. The market is not expensive.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen 11 percent this year, with stocks on the gauge valued at 14.8 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 23 times at the start of the year.

Exporters to the U.S. gained after improving data from the world’s biggest economy boosted confidence the recovery was continuing.

Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker by market value, gained 3 percent to 3,235 yen this week. Canon Inc., the world’s largest camera maker, climbed 1 percent to 4,145 yen. James Hardie Industries SE, the biggest seller of home siding in the U.S., increased 2.5 percent to A$6.68 in Sydney.

Consumer Confidence

Confidence among U.S. consumers increased more than forecast in December to the highest level in six months at the same time Americans began stepping up holiday spending. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 74.2 from 71.6 at the end of November. Economists projected a December reading of 72.5, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

A Commerce Department report showed the U.S. trade deficit shrank to $38.7 billion in October, less than the lowest estimate of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the smallest since January.

The number of U.S. workers filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week, pointing to a labor market that is on the mend. Applications for jobless insurance payments decreased by 3,000 to 420,000, the lowest in three weeks, Labor Department figures showed. Economists in a Bloomberg survey projected a median rise in claims to 425,000.

U.S. Employment

China Overseas Land slid 2.9 percent to HK$14.58. China Resources Land Ltd., a state-controlled developer, declined 1.6 percent to HK$13.54. Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., the biggest builder in the southern Chinese city, dropped 1.9 percent to HK$10.64.

China will strengthen controls in the real-estate market and curb speculative investment from next year through 2015, Xinhua News Agency reported on Dec. 16, citing China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

“The next curb on property is likely to be a unit tax,” said Andrew Sullivan, director of institutional sales at OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd. “Some investors are locking in gains running to year end.”

HSBC Holdings, which receives 36 percent of its revenue in Europe, slid 1.7 percent to HK$80.15 in Hong Kong. Li & Fung Ltd., which is the biggest supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and gets 27 percent of its sales from Europe, dropped 2.3 percent to HK$43.80.

Spain’s credit rating may be cut from Aa1 by Moody’s Investors Service on concern about rising borrowing costs, potential losses in the banking system and deficits in the country’s regions, the ratings agency said on Dec. 15.

Moody’s also put Greece’s Ba1 bond ratings on review for a possible downgrade, citing heightened concerns about whether the country will be able to reduce its debt to “sustainable levels,” and Ireland’s credit rating was cut five levels by Moody’s on Dec. 17, after the government last month was forced to ask for external aid.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Santa via Cellphone: Shopping Online Without a Computer

This holiday season, consumers are beginning to shop and make purchases on their mobile phones. The shift from buying presents in front of the computer at home or work to doing it during bus commutes or while standing in line at cafes is small, but, for the first time, noticeable and even significant.

Shopping on cellphones and portable tablet computers like iPads accounted for about 5 percent of online sales in November, while last year mobile shopping sales were too insignificant to measure, according to Coremetrics, an e-commerce measurement service owned by I.B.M. Many more shoppers are using their phones to research items and compare prices before making purchases offline or on computers.

“There were early adopters last year, but it’s absolutely real this year,” said Kelly O’Neill, director of industry marketing for ATG, which provides online and mobile commerce technology to retailers like Best Buy and J. C. Penney. And mobile shoppers are buying high-ticket items like diamond rings and cars, not just virtual goods and ring tones.

On Dec. 12, eBay’s busiest mobile shopping day of the year, worldwide mobile sales nearly tripled from last year to $13 million, according to the company, which expects $1.5 billion in mobile sales this year.

Virtually every product that people buy on computers sells in similar proportion on mobile devices, said Steve Yankovich, eBay’s vice president for mobile. He said shoppers bought an average of four Ferraris a month from their cellphones.

Tiffany English, 30, of Hoboken, N.J., bought her mother’s Christmas gift, a painting of a child, when the eBay mobile app alerted her that the auction was about to end while she was out in Greenwich Village. She used eBay’s RedLaser app to compare prices on a set of barbecue tools for her brother, and bought the set on her cellphone from Amazon.com while standing in Bed Bath & Beyond, where the same item cost more.

“It’s saving me time and saving me money,” Ms. English said. “I feel like my grandma: ‘You can do that with your phone?’ ”

EBay is so convinced of the future of mobile phone shopping that on Wednesday it acquired Critical Path Software, a mobile phone app developer, to speed its move into this new arena.

At Blue Nile, the diamond and jewelry e-commerce site, mobile revenue is up sixfold this month from the period a year ago. The company says a mobile shopper recently bought a ring for more than $250,000 via a cellphone.

“A year ago, we really didn’t know whether mobile would be very impactful for our business, because this is a very considered purchase, a high-ticket luxury item,” said Diane Irvine, chief executive of Blue Nile. Now, she said, “we can envision a time when sales from a mobile device will eclipse sales over the desktop Web site.”

Most shoppers still use their phones for finding nearby stores or looking up reviews and comparing prices, rather than for buying goods, retailers and analysts say. Still, that type of research increasingly leads to mobile sales, particularly for online retailers that compete heavily on price, like consumer electronics stores, said Sucharita Mulpuru, principal analyst for e-commerce at Forrester Research.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the spike in mobile shopping is simply that more Web retailers have created mobile Web sites or apps that make it easier to search inventory on a small screen without a mouse, by forgoing fancy Flash graphics and selling a limited number of products on phones.

Mobile apps often have features that Web sites don’t. For example, Amazon’s app lets people scan bar codes, speak into the phone or take a photo of an item to search for products. Bluefly’s sends a cellphone alert when an item that was out of stock becomes available again.

Just as e-commerce made it possible for people to shop in the office and late at night, mobile phones let them shop anywhere. And because shoppers on cellphones often have a purchase in mind, they can be more valuable to retailers. “Mobile shoppers are the hunters, and people sitting at their computer are gathering,” said Jill Dvorak, senior consultant for the e-commerce advisory company FitForCommerce.

Tom Keithley, 49, of Monkton, Md., is one of those hunters. He travels often for his job in financial services, and this year he did half his holiday shopping while on the road. From his cellphone he bought a Blue Nile ring for his wife and a eucalyptus wreath from Gump’s, the home décor shop.

“I’m usually in airports and airplanes, so it’s more convenient for me to use the time to do things I might normally do if I were sitting at my desk,” he said.

Mobile shopping is particularly appropriate for customers of flash sale sites like Gilt. Its limited-time sales start at noon each day and sell out quickly, so people miss out if they are away from their computers. Since Gilt introduced its mobile apps, shoppers have more consistently made purchases at noon, and mobile sales generally account for 10 percent of revenue and close to 20 percent on holidays and weekends, said Carl Sparks, president of the Gilt Groupe.

The iPad has also helped mobile commerce, but in a different way. While cellphone apps are made to complete transactions as quickly as possible, iPad apps tend to be for shopping as sport. For instance, Amazon’s iPad app, called Windowshop, shows many images and lets people browse and view close-up shots of items.

“It makes it much more visual and fluid and entertaining,” said Sam Hall, director of mobile at Amazon, “something that never could have been done on a smaller-screen device.”

Best Buy Feels the Pressure of Rivals on the Web

At barely 10 a.m., holiday shopping was in full swing at a Best Buy on the Upper West Side. A harried father searched for a new Xbox for his children. A personal assistant picked up video game accessories for her boss’s twins. One young woman fiddled with a coffeemaker, while another paid for a DVD player.

Outside, parked along the curb, a Best Buy van displayed the slogan “to serve, install and repair.” Inside, one of Best Buy’s frontline salesmen, known as blue shirts for their uniforms, shouted to no one in particular across the vast showroom: “Anybody have any questions?” And moments later, to a couple trying out some laptops, he said: “You guys O.K.?”

At a time when the nation’s brick-and-mortar electronics retailers are increasingly feeling the squeeze from online sellers and discounters, the scene at the Best Buy store exemplified what the company hoped would keep customers pushing through its glass doors: the service support, the personal touch of its sales staff and the products on display that allow shoppers to see, touch and try.

Its strategy, however, has not worked as well as envisioned in a recovering economy. The challenges faced by electronics stores were highlighted this week when Best Buy, the world’s largest consumer electronics retailer in revenue, reported that third-quarter net income fell 4.4 percent, to $217 million, and sales fell 1.1 percent, to $11.9 billion. Sales at stores open for more than a year declined 5 percent.

The third-quarter results were below analysts’ forecasts and affected other stocks. Shares of Best Buy fell 18 percent during the day Tuesday, after the results were announced. That was the biggest decline since August 2002, and other retailers like Hhgregg and RadioShack followed suit.

For the week, Best Buy shares lost 18 percent, Hhgregg fell 14 percent, and RadioShack 5 percent.

“The market, which is already weak, is dramatically shifting away from stores and toward online,” said Colin A. McGranahan, a senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company. “The online share of the market is now a critical mass, and the discount stores are also fierce competitors and willing to sell the product at very low prices to get that customer through the door.”

“You are also seeing another factor where people are going into Best Buy, getting advice on the product and then using smartphones to scan the Web for better deals,” he said.

With the shift toward online destinations, electronics retailers need to adapt to the changing landscape, analysts say, even as they continue to open storefronts. Online sales in the United States are forecast to account for 20 percent of total consumer electronics sales of $250 billion by the end of this year.

“Online has now gotten big enough to encroach on Best Buy,” Mr. McGranahan said.

Best Buy reported for the first time this year that it had started to lose market share. Sales of televisions, computers and video game software were weaker than expected, Brian J. Dunn, Best Buy’s chief executive, said this week.

Separately, in a e-mail he added that the company offered customers “a place where they can talk to knowledgeable, unbiased and engaged salespeople who demonstrate the art of what’s possible” and help them make choices.

Even so, new technology, like 3-D televisions that often need specialists to answer the questions of consumers, was not moving as briskly as hoped. Analysts said the company did not promote lower-tier products as aggressively as it should have. In general, sales were going to Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target, Costco and Sears.

“The results certainly signify how much competition consumer electronic retailers are facing from mass merchants and larger online retailers,” said R. J. Hottovy, director of consumer research at Morningstar. “It is tough to see what the company is going to do,” he said. “I think that a lot of the worries lingering out there were exacerbated by the results.”

Morningstar said it was reducing its fair value estimate for the stock, raising questions about Best Buy’s ability to defend market share from mass merchants, especially while major suppliers like Apple expanded their own outlets. “These factors support the viewpoint that Best Buy lacks an economic moat, in our view,” said the research note.

Analysts downgraded their expectations for the fiscal year.

“We whacked a billion in revenue out of our forecast,” down to $50.2 billion in global sales, Mr. McGranahan said, adding: “It was a pretty bad quarter. Sales declined more than we thought, and the outlook for the fourth is not great.”

And Best Buy said in its third-quarter earnings news release that it was lowering its per-share outlook for the year.

Even so, electronics and appliances retailers are still pressing ahead with new storefronts. Best Buy plans to open 50 to 55 stores by the end of February.

India Won't Spare Guilty in Mobile-Phone Licenses Probe, Minister Says

India will prosecute any company that violated rules for obtaining mobile-phone licenses from 2001 and won’t spare those found guilty, Communications and Information Technology Minister Kapil Sibal said.

“There should be a message that those who have done wrong and will do wrong will not be spared,” Sibal told Bloomberg-UTV in an interview aired today.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government has come under fire from opposition parties and the nation’s chief auditor for the way airwave permits were awarded in 2008. India’s highest court has said it will directly monitor a federal probe into the sale of wireless licenses and yesterday ordered investigators to submit a progress report by its next hearing on Feb. 10.

The court’s move raises scrutiny on the probe of a scandal that’s roiled India’s phone industry, led to the resignation of Sibal’s predecessor Andimuthu Raja and subsequent searches of Raja’s residences, and stalled parliamentary proceedings.

India’s top auditor said last month the sale of 157 permits at “unbelievably low” prices two years ago deprived the treasury of as much as 1.4 trillion rupees ($31 billion).

The government was now focused on restoring confidence in the industry and ensuring that the ministry would “function in a transparent, open and non-discriminatory manner,” Sibal said.

‘Industry Survives’

“I want to make sure that the industry survives," he said. "We should not send a message to the industry that we are not bothered about the survival of the industry, or all we are bothered about is sending people to jail.”

The Comptroller and Auditor General of India said in its report the government sold wireless airwaves in 2008 for 123.9 billion rupees, though they could have earned as much as 1.5 trillion rupees from the sale. Raja has denied any wrongdoing.

The auditor also said that the government awarded licenses to 13 ineligible companies at the time. Two of those permits are currently used by units of Norway’s Telenor ASA and Emirates Telecommunications Corp.

The Telenor and Etisalat units said Dec. 14 they will prove the validity of their mobile-phone licenses to the government after the Department of Telecommunications gave the carriers 60 days to prove they followed rules in getting the permits.

Sibal said any changes in the ministry’s rules would occur after due consultation with the industry and consumers.

The aim will be to ensure “people will have confidence in the fact that I am taking these decisions to create a level playing field,” he said. “And I am going to take these decisions after a dialogue and through a transparent process.”

India alleges drones breaching its airspace

The Indian military has complained that Pakistani and Chinese spy drones are regularly straying into Indian airspace, striking a discordant note during this week’s summit between the two countries.

Over the past three years, India has experienced nearly 30 violations of its airspace by foreign aircraft, including unmanned aircraft from neighbouring countries, according to AK Antony, India’s defence minister.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – known as drones – and military aircraft had crossed into Indian airspace over the disputed Kashmir area of the Himalayas, he said, with most of the violations coming from Pakistan.

“The fact that these [violations] are happening is enough. Something needs to be done,” said Shashindra Pal Tyagi, former head of the Indian air force.

Their complaints came against the background of the three-day visit to India by Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, who preached partnership over bi-lateral rivalry in a warm address on local television.

However, Mr Wen acknowledged that the border dispute over the state of Arunachal Pradesh would “not easily be resolved”, and made no mention of the threat of terrorism, a key Indian concern.

A senior Pakistani official told the Financial Times that China was helping Pakistan to develop armed UAVs, providing support where Islamabad’s repeated requests for technology had been denied by the US.

“China is helping Pakistan in this area. Pakistan needs drones for its genuine defence purposes and our Chinese brothers have once again risen to our expectations,” the official said.

Indian military advisers are also worried about China’s development of drone technology. They are urging New Delhi’s defence establishment to invest in drones to patrol the Himalayas, the border with Pakistan and Maoist-held areas in India .

“China has announced to the whole world about the modernisation of its armed forces, so India needs to be prepared. Keep your gunpowder ready,” Mr Tyagi said. “China is getting aggressive; India will have to cope with the entire spectrum of threat.”

Serving commanders believe India has the capability to avoid the kind of humiliating defeat it suffered at the hands of the Chinese almost 50 years ago in a short-lived high altitude combat over the state of Arunachal Pradesh.

“India started [upgrading] its capabilities five or six years ago. China started before that. They have a lead over us,” PV Naik, head of the air force, told commanders earlier this month. “Our aim is to prevent a repeat of 1962. With the capabilities that we have built up and are in the process of building, a repeat of 1962 can never happen.”

US security experts have warned that Beijing has a number of UAVs under development. The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which takes a hawkish view towards China, claimed last month that China’s air force had deployed UAVs for reconnaissance and combat.

The People’s Liberation Army has left little doubt that some products are maturing. Two drones were on display at a military parade celebrating the 60th anniversary of Communist rule last year. At the Zhuhai Air Show last month, Chinese companies showed off no less than 25 different unmanned aerial vehicles.

Chinese security experts say UAVs are a vital part of the PLA’s effort to secure the country’s vast borders. They are expected to help locate US aircraft carriers in Asian waters, and patrol China’s disputed land borders.

VK Saraswat, adviser to Indian defence ministry, said India needed to speed up its own development of UAVs and take “a cue from the use of drones [by the US] in Afghanistan”.