VPM Campus Photo

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Global Recession to ‘Batter’ Australian Economy, Swan Says

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Australian workers will suffer more job losses as the global recession spreads, Treasurer Wayne Swan said.

“The global recession will continue to batter our economy, and like other nations, we need to brace ourselves for more job losses in Australia,” Swan said in an e-mailed statement today. “While we received some good news last week on the housing and confidence front, there is no room for complacency.”

Australian employers fired fewer workers than estimated in May, adding to signs the economy is overcoming the worst global slump since the Great Depression. Home-loan approvals rose in April for a seventh month as the lowest borrowing costs in half a century and government cash handouts bolstered demand among first-time buyers.

To spur domestic demand, the government unveiled plans in May to embark on an unprecedented A$22 billion ($18 billion) program to build schools, roads and railways. The jobless rate rose to 5.7 percent from a revised 5.5 percent last month.

“The government has acted decisively to stimulate the economy and cushion Australians from the worst effects of the global recession, with three phases of stimulus -- cash stimulus payments, shovel-ready projects, and large-scale nation building infrastructure,” Swan said today. “There is no doubt that without this decisive action, unemployment in this country would be much higher.”

Australia ‘Furious’ With Commonwealth Bank Rates, Macklin Says

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Australian mortgage holders are “furious” with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s move to raise its variable mortgage rates, according to the government.

“Mortgage holders have got every reason to be furious with the Commonwealth Bank,” Jenny Macklin, minister for families, housing, community services and indigenous affairs, told the Channel 10 television network today. “We need to do everything we can to support our economy in these very difficult times, not see interest rates go up.”

The nation’s second-biggest lender on June 10 became the first of the country’s four largest banks to raise variable rates since the central bank began a record round of cuts to borrowing costs in September. Bank borrowing costs have climbed this year as speculation grows that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase its benchmark lending rate as the economy strengthens.

“The Commonwealth Bank is acting in a selfish way,” Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard told the Nine television network today, according to the Herald Sun. “This is a decision the government is rightly furious about.”

The standard variable rate will increase to 5.74 percent tomorrow from 5.64 percent, Sydney-based Commonwealth Bank said June 12. Australia’s biggest mortgage lender, which previously had the lowest rate among the nation’s four largest banks, also raised business loan rates and said fixed mortgage rates will soon rise.

Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens left the overnight cash rate target at a 49-year low of 3 percent on June 2

Friday, June 12, 2009

It’s A False Debate Conservation isn’t about growth versus green

There are, as an old joke goes, two shades of green activists: the rabid and the romantic. Most good jokes draw from reality. I reaffirmed this conviction by observing a few green stalwarts over the past few weeks. Nobody in India, i was told, bothers about conservation more than the Gandhis. Remember, it was Indira who banned hunting almost 40 years back. Remember, it was Rajiv who always had time for the lowly forest staff. And remember, it’s Rahul who set up a tiger caucus with young politicians and got bullied by tribal activists.
The Congress has crossed the 200-mark on its own. More, Rahul Gandhi has earned for himself a say in matters of governance and policies. I could imagine the sense of vindication among these green stalwarts when the Congress freed the ministry of environment and forests (MoEF) from the clutches of allies and put an ‘able minister’ in charge.
Then came Jairam Ramesh’s first media statement about the prime minister asking him not to let the MoEF become an anti-development bottleneck. At once, there were war cries. How could we have expected better from a PM who tried to steamroll India’s national environment policy at the World Bank’s prompting? How dare they advocate summary green clearance for all development projects?
But can anyone deny that the current environmental clearance procedure is highly arbitrary, delaying decisions while leaving room for manipulation? After all, less than 1per cent of all proposals put up for green clearance has been turned down so far. Was Ramesh, perhaps, talking of streamlining the process? Surprisingly, few were willing to give the minister the benefit of the doubt.
Ramesh’s biggest challenge will be to fight the irrational – the suspicion of the rabid and the expectation of the romantic. Some will always see the shadow of what they call the PM’s growth-rush behind all his moves. Others will seek magical inspiration from the young Gandhi. Some will always suspect foul play each time Ramesh’s ministry clears forest land for development. Others will expect 33 per cent forest cover and at least 5,000 tigers by the end of his term.
Frankly, should we have a blanket policy for development projects inside protected areas? What we need is objective cost-benefit comparatives for each project proposal so that informed decisions are possible. Even a few acres of a pristine forest are much more valuable than many hectares of an already degraded stretch. A road that can well do with a few kilometres of detour may not be allowed inside a sanctuary, but there might be logic in allowing the lifeline of a highway through a marginal forest area.
We cannot reverse the conservation clock just by wishful thinking. Those who hit the streets, demanding 5,000 wild tigers in the next five years, should understand that we do not have viable forests to hold even 2,000 tigers. And anyone who dreams of 33 per cent forest cover should start promoting kitchen gardens in each and every service balcony.
Performing isn’t easy in such an atmosphere of irrationality, particularly when a minister is briefed by a bunch of bureaucrats and experts mostly incapable of any scientific or even practical input. Our conservation paradigm is so outdated and unimaginative that we have reduced the whole issue to an emotional debate of growth-versus-green. But no attempt to conserve our natural heritage will work unless it is backed by scientific decisions and economic incentives.
There are at least five sets of files on Ramesh’s table that cannot wait any longer. One, the proposal to bifurcate the MoEF – one secretariat for environment and another for forests and wildlife – is pending since 2006 even after an assurance from the prime minister’s office. Two, a blueprint is needed to shake up the Indian forest service by creating a short-service wildlife sub-cadre, with special training and perks, for our national parks and sanctuaries. Three, field-level staff vacancies need to be filled up across the country. There is enough money lying with the Centre but our federal structure does not allow the Centre to hire or pay state government employees.
Four, for quick rehabilitation of villages out of ‘‘core critical forests”, the ministry needs to tap funds available under various central government schemes and ensure proper coordination among the district administration, forest authorities and credible NGOs. Five, an achievable national action plan for climate security is needed so that India can underline its leadership role in the climate debate in the run-up to the Copenhagen summit.
In the long term, Ramesh’s real test will be to find solutions to the three most critical issues plaguing conservation: habitat loss, mananimal conflict and poaching. The present practices to combat these problems are dangerously naive and counterproductive. We maintain forest boundaries for habitat security instead of creating buffer and connectivity for multiple land use. We create ‘maneaters’ by arbitrarily capturing and releasing so-called problem animals. We fail to guard our reserves against poaching but do not try to rehabilitate the handful of poaching communities.
It’s time our conservation outlook disowned the deadwood and forced a shift towards scientific and economic strategies. Ramesh has his task cut out.
The writer is a journalist and film-maker.

TONNES OF MONEY

New Delhi: Having realised that its “aam aadmi’’ agenda is vote-catching, the UPA government is likely to give a huge fillip to social sector spending with special focus on education, health and rural development in its budget. Top government sources hinted that gross budgetary support (GBS) will be around Rs 3.35 lakh crore—Rs 50,000 crore more than the GBS (Rs 2.85 lakh crore) fixed in the interim budget.
However, this would mean higher fiscal deficit as compared to 5.5% reflected in the interim budget with a GBS of Rs 2.85 lakh crore. In consonance with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s directive to adhere to the UPA’s agenda as outlined in the President’s address, the government is likely to enhance spending on education. The finance ministry and Planning Commission is working on a figure of Rs 15,500 crore more for education sector in addition to Rs 34,400 crore allocated in the interim budget.
Also, a special allocation of Rs 8,500 crore is in the offing for setting up of eight new Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) and 16 new central universities in the coming budget.
With the President highlighting the need to focus on women’s literacy and quality education, the government is likely to allocate another Rs 7,000 crore to set up model schools in educationally backward blocks of the country and improve quality of education under Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan.
The government’s renewed focus is going to be on rural development, specially on NREGA whose vote-garnering potential was realised in general elections by the UPA establishment. The rural development ministry’s allocation is expected to be increased by Rs 4,000 crore, which will take the total budget of the ministry to Rs 70,000 crore, highest for any social sector ministry.
With special focus on reducing infant mortality, MMR, and upgrading PHCs, the health ministry’s allocation is expected to increase by around 25%. The government wants the health ministry to focus on strengthening crumbling rural health infrastructure under National Rural Health Mission. In the interim budget, the ministry had got Rs 16,534 crore and now the ministry is likely to get an additional Rs 4,000 crore.
In an effort to meet ambitious agenda outlined by the President to make India slumfree and to upgrade urban infrastructure, the government is set to increase the budget of JNNURM being handled by housing ministry and urban development ministry. In the interim budget, the allocation was Rs 4,724 crore. Now an additional amount of Rs 3,500 crore is likely to be earmarked for the urban renewal mission.
Commonwealth Games-2010, to be held in Delhi, is high on the UPA’s agenda as the government is set to hike the allocation by three times. The total allocation for the Games would be around Rs 2,000 crore.
With rural electrification not up to the mark under Bharat Nirman, the power ministry is expected to get additional allocation of Rs 8,000 crore which means the total budget of the ministry would be over Rs 60,000 crore.

BROKEN PROMISES? ‘Discriminatory’ NPS fails to find takers

New Delhi: The New Pension System (NPS), rolled out to the public from May 1 and applicable to all government employees since 2004, has failed to take off due to its discriminatory nature and has led to a tussle between two departments of the finance ministry.
While the pension division has been asking the revenue department to exempt all income accrued to an employee at the time of his retirement under NPS, the latter has refused to budge and give any concessions.
For instance, person A who joined government on or before December 31, 2003, will not have to pay any tax on the pension benefits that he receives at the time of his retirement. However, someone who has joined office on January 1, 2004, or later will have to pay 30% tax, 10% surcharge if the amount exceeds Rs 10 lakh and 3% education cess, taking the total to 33.99% on his accumulated pension reimbursement that he gets when he is retiring.
The tax amount on the accrued income that includes tax-exempt deposits of previous years is huge, said a senior finance ministry official. If person A is to get Rs 10 lakh, the government will take away Rs 3.40 lakh as his tax obligation on the net disbursal. For someone who is expected to get Rs 20 lakh, the amount of tax outgo could be Rs 6.80 lakh.
Had he been employed a day earlier than January 1, 2004, an employee’s entire tax outgo could have been saved. Interestingly, a person employed with the private sector whose provident fund is deposited with the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is also exempted from paying any tax.
The discriminatory policy, a finance ministry official said, was the reason behind the lacklustre response to NPS since its launch. In the one month after it was opened to public (May 1), NPS received only 500 applications and managed to collect a paltry Rs 28 lakh. Footfalls at the 22 points of presence appointed by the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) too have been negligible.
Investments made in NPS are exempted at two stages for government employees — first under 80CCC with a cap of Rs 1 lakh and then on the interest accrued on this income. However, at the third stage — at the time of withdrawal — the entire amount is taxed, thus nullifying benefits of all previous exemptions.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

India Steel Demand May Rise 10% on Infrastructure, Rastogi Says

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- India’s steel demand may gain as much as 10 percent this fiscal year, almost double the pace previously estimated, as the government spends more on infrastructure, Steel Secretary Pramod Rastogi said.

“Based on the economic factors, it will not be a surprise to see a surge in consumption,” Rastogi said in an interview in New Delhi, revising his May 18 forecast of 6 percent growth this year. Demand, which almost disappeared last year, rose 6 percent in the past two months, he said.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s administration, which returned to power without the help of communist allies last month, is reviving state projects and restoring a rural jobs program that’s lifting demand in villages and towns. The government plans to spend $8.95 billion this fiscal year to build networks of roads, telephones, electricity and irrigation.

“There’s considerable scope to increase public expenditure, particularly on infrastructure projects and that would not lead to inflation,” Singh told lawmakers on June 9. “That is the right way to deal with the international slowdown.”

As demand grows, Indian steelmakers are expected to double their combined capacity in the next three years, Rastogi said in his Udyog Bhavan office yesterday. Capacity is expected to increase to as much as 124 million metric tons by 2012 or at least 100 million tons in the “worst-case scenario,” he said.

“The steel companies have started speaking a positive language as they are seeing a rise in demand,” Rastogi said.

Steel Production

India produced 56.4 million metric tons of steel in the year ended March 31, little changed from 56.1 million tons the previous year, according to the data provided by the Joint Plant Committee, a data dissemination body under the steel ministry.

Imports of steel rose 21 percent to 528,000 metric tons last month from a year earlier, Rastogi said, citing figures compiled by the ministry. Some countries are offering prices lower than those in India, which is leading to the spurt in imports, he said, without identifying the nations.

Producers from Ukraine and Russia are willing to sell in India at below-market prices, Seshagiri Rao, chief financial officer at India’s third-largest producer JSW Steel Ltd., said in an interview yesterday. China’s move to offer a rebate on steel exports will also hinder the Indian steelmakers, he said.

Falling Prices

Coking coal contract prices, which surged to a record $300 a ton last year, have declined 60 percent since April. Steelmakers in Japan and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third- largest mining company, agreed to a 33 percent cut in iron ore prices, settling for 97 cents a dry metric ton unit.

India’s government last month rejected a plea by Steel Authority of India Ltd., the nation’s second-biggest producer, JSW and rivals to impose a 25 percent so called safeguard duty on imports in addition to the existing 5 percent import tax.

“We are watching, though from the data it’s clear that China is not a threat at the moment because very little steel is coming from there,” Rastogi said. “Also, Indian companies are trying to lower costs to be more competitive.”

A venture formed by state-owned steelmakers is scouting for coal mines in the U.S., Canada, Australia and Mozambique to secure supplies for Indian companies, he said.

Britain’s White Collar Jobless Claims Rise 154% on Recession

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Jobless claims from white-collar workers in the U.K. rose by 154 percent in the year through May as the recession led banks and other services companies to fire workers, particularly in London and the South East of England.

The number of managers and professionals claiming the Jobseekers’ Allowance increased to 118,700 from 46,700 a year earlier, the Local Government Association said in a report today.

“It’s the South that has seen a sharp rise in the number of managerial job losses,” said Jeremy Beecham, vice-chairman of the association, a lobbying group that represents the interest of local councils. “White-collar workers are by no means safe from job cuts, and increasing numbers of them are being forced onto Job Seekers’ Allowance.”

Britain’s economy is hemorrhaging workers in a recession predicted by Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government to be the worst since World War II. Service industries account for 80 percent of all jobs in Britain, and in financial services 40 percent of workers are based in London and the South East.

The number of jobless based on International Labour Organization methods rose 244,000 in the three months through March, the biggest increase since 1981, government figures show. Economists say unemployment, currently 2.22 million, may continue to rise long after the recession has ended and peak above 3 million.

The number of manual and skilled trade workers seeking jobless benefits increased by 77 percent to 589,000, the Local Government Association said.