Ayear ago when Rahul Gandhi embarked on his mission to democratize the Youth Congress and NSUI, with the idea of attracting youth to politics, hardly anyone could have said for sure that he would be successful. And yet, youth is the flavour of the season today. In the wake of the Congress Party’s spectacular performance in the 15th Lok Sabha elections, youth is at the core of our national discourse.
The world missed the significance of our baby steps in democratizing the Congress’s youth organizations. Everyone wrongly assumed young Indians were allergic to politics and change. But they are eager to be active agents of change.
The election results are scant evidence of the chord Rahul has struck with youth with his attempts to throw open political parties to the next generation. In the last few months, we held elections for our youth organizations in Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Punjab. The result was the new vigour seen in GenNext during the Lok Sabha elections — they took up campaigning in big numbers and turned out in hordes to vote. They seem to have backed Congress with great enthusiasm.
It is the young who can — and will — change the country and the way it is run. The basic problem arises from the simplistic assumption that the young are averse to “dirty politics”. The urban middle class may be cynical about politics but in the rural heartland there are 5.5 lakh panchayats and several lakh young men and women serving as panchs, sarpanchs and as members of zilla parishads. According to a rough estimate, 70% of these elected representatives are no older than 35.
Surely that is evidence enough to show that the young are interested in entering the system to change their village communities? If the urban young are apathetic about politics it is largely because of the system’s penchant for political institutions, the closed-door functioning of political outfits and the special status given to politicians. These are all negatives factors and breed revulsion among ordinary people.
The philosophy and purpose of Rahul Gandhi’s internal democratization of the NSUI and Youth Congress was opening them up to the common people. This has created a feeling within the new generation that there is a clean way of getting into politics and moving into leadership positions. At the moment, many young politicians belong to political families and the positions they get are passed down as legacies. There’s nothing wrong with that but there should be equal opportunity for others too if they want it.
It is not a small change. It would open up politics to all, making it possible for ordinary people to compete with the privileged few. Some may
try to discourage the change, but
it will happen. Ours is a longterm vision but the results of
this election are encouraging,
particularly because we saw
huge youth participation in
our campaign and the voting
process.
I went to Mandsaur in Madhya Pradesh to contest the election. I was a first-timer in the big, challenging world of electoral politics. But the experience was phenomenal. Throughout the campaign, I would get scraps on my Orkut profile and phone calls from boys and girls who would introduce themselves as first-time voters who had cast their ballot in my favour. It was a very satisfying experience — the flight of hope among those who possibly would not have taken to it with such gusto had they not seen change coming into the closed, 60-year-old world of politics.
Through Congress’s philosophy of equality, India’s young will change the way politics is perceived in this country. Politics and elections are seen as an ideological challenge, but young people see it as a management challenge. As the young enter politics, real issues will come to centrestage and the possibility of their own being able to participate in the process would cement their faith in the philosophy of equality, opportunity and change.
It will be a boon for society as it will undercut the school of political thought that promotes divisiveness. As we gain acceptability, there will be copycats. That would be good because they will be following our path.
But this may be hard for those whose politics is based on parochialism. Divisive politics marginalizes the youth it seeks to exclude. Youth participation in such parties will decline. Simply put, divisive ideology is antithetical to greater youth participation.
LONG-TERM VISION: (from left to right) Vijay Inder Singla, Sandeep Dikshit, Jitin Prasada, Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia
Saturday, May 23, 2009
NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH Has Af-Pak strategy led to civil war in Pakistan?
It is a measure of the intensity of US pressure that the Pakistan army appears finally to have begun serious counter-insurgency operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan. This is part of the overall US Af-Pak strategy of containing the Taliban and related militancy to the Pashtun areas, which straddle the Afghan-Pakistan border. The US intent is to weaken the Taliban and allied militants to the point they can be contained, at least temporarily, by the Afghan and Pakistan militaries respectively, allowing the US to scale down its regional presence to one of minimal support for counter-insurgency and the conduct of the ongoing battle against al-Qaida. If this can ever be achieved, it will be called victory.
On the Afghan side, strategy-implementation is led by the US forces and nuanced by the linkages between the US, NATO and the estimated 500,000 foreign nationals working in civilian nation-building roles. On the Pakistan side the US is at one remove, seeking to implement strategy through the brute tool of the Pakistan army.
In the Rah-e-Haq 4 operations that are unfolding in the districts of Buner, Dir and Swat, and in similar operations that occurred earlier in Bajaur, it is possible to see the way in which the Pakistan army is seeking to subvert American intentions in the continued pursuit of its own interests. A useful point of departure to understand this is the Pakistan army’s operations in Bajaur, which began in September 2008 in the wake of the Islamabad Marriott bombing. Fearful of significant combat losses, and worried about the loyalty of its soldiers, the army used air strikes, helicopter gunships and artillery to pound militant positions and flatten towns and villages. When this phase of the conflict was over in late February 2009, the regional commander, Major General Tariq Khan, flew journalists to observe the piles of rubble that had once been the homes of the people of Bajaur. Khan claimed that the Taliban were defeated in Bajaur and that the whole of the FATA would be back in the hands of the Pakistan state by the end of 2009. Three months later, these claims are exposed as hubris. The Taliban are back in de facto control of most of what remains of Bajaur. To assert state control over the whole of the FATA in the next seven months now seems unlikely.
The unfolding operations bear hallmarks of the Bajaur operation. The use of air strikes, helicopter gunships and artillery again form the centrepiece and the price is being paid by the peoples of these districts. Most estimates suggest that more than two million people may be internally displaced from Pakistan’s tribal areas.
One element of the strategy, however, appears different. The Pakistan army has reportedly airlifted troops into the Peochar valley in order to surround the Pakistan Taliban Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammedi (TNSM) leadership of Maulvi Fazlullah. If confirmed, and if Fazlullah and his commanders are not spirited away, this will mark a stepchange in Pakistan army operations. It will also expose the myth of the army’s inability to move against militants. In theory, no force on earth could have better counterinsurgency credentials than the Pakistan army, which for decades has trained, supported and sometimes fought alongside militants. Nor can the Pakistan army’s claim to be under-resourced be seen as anything other than an appeal to Washington for more funding.
So, making sense of what is taking place in Pakistan’s tribal areas requires revisiting the fundamentals. There is, as yet, no move against the Afghan Taliban on the Pakistan side of the border, no increase in useable intelligence about the Afghan Taliban being provided to the US or NATO, and no reduction of pressure on NATO supply lines through Pakistan. There is also no move against the Haqqani or Hekmatyar networks, nor against the core of militants and terrorists in the FATA, particularly in North and South Waziristan. Bajaur was flattened and much of its population driven out, but Bajaur has not been held or brought under the writ of the Pakistan state.
Moreover, following Bajaur and earlier operations in the FATA, the army cannot have been unaware of the humanitarian refugee catastrophe, which would result from the failure to properly prepare for the deluge. Is it too cynical to suggest that the army has forced the refugee crisis knowing (as in Sri Lanka) that there will be an international clamour to end the fighting?
The huge unknown, hanging over all these events, is the likely scale and nature of the backlash against the Pakistani state. If, as some believe, a powerful ‘Deobandi complex’ is now taking shape in Pakistan involving militants, religious movements, religious and conservative political parties, Islamist sympathizers, and perhaps some within the army and ISI, then the ‘Af-Pak’ strategy may be seen to have precipitated the first phase of a civil war in Pakistan.
The writer is a professor at the
Pakistan Security Research Unit,
University of Bradford
On the Afghan side, strategy-implementation is led by the US forces and nuanced by the linkages between the US, NATO and the estimated 500,000 foreign nationals working in civilian nation-building roles. On the Pakistan side the US is at one remove, seeking to implement strategy through the brute tool of the Pakistan army.
In the Rah-e-Haq 4 operations that are unfolding in the districts of Buner, Dir and Swat, and in similar operations that occurred earlier in Bajaur, it is possible to see the way in which the Pakistan army is seeking to subvert American intentions in the continued pursuit of its own interests. A useful point of departure to understand this is the Pakistan army’s operations in Bajaur, which began in September 2008 in the wake of the Islamabad Marriott bombing. Fearful of significant combat losses, and worried about the loyalty of its soldiers, the army used air strikes, helicopter gunships and artillery to pound militant positions and flatten towns and villages. When this phase of the conflict was over in late February 2009, the regional commander, Major General Tariq Khan, flew journalists to observe the piles of rubble that had once been the homes of the people of Bajaur. Khan claimed that the Taliban were defeated in Bajaur and that the whole of the FATA would be back in the hands of the Pakistan state by the end of 2009. Three months later, these claims are exposed as hubris. The Taliban are back in de facto control of most of what remains of Bajaur. To assert state control over the whole of the FATA in the next seven months now seems unlikely.
The unfolding operations bear hallmarks of the Bajaur operation. The use of air strikes, helicopter gunships and artillery again form the centrepiece and the price is being paid by the peoples of these districts. Most estimates suggest that more than two million people may be internally displaced from Pakistan’s tribal areas.
One element of the strategy, however, appears different. The Pakistan army has reportedly airlifted troops into the Peochar valley in order to surround the Pakistan Taliban Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammedi (TNSM) leadership of Maulvi Fazlullah. If confirmed, and if Fazlullah and his commanders are not spirited away, this will mark a stepchange in Pakistan army operations. It will also expose the myth of the army’s inability to move against militants. In theory, no force on earth could have better counterinsurgency credentials than the Pakistan army, which for decades has trained, supported and sometimes fought alongside militants. Nor can the Pakistan army’s claim to be under-resourced be seen as anything other than an appeal to Washington for more funding.
So, making sense of what is taking place in Pakistan’s tribal areas requires revisiting the fundamentals. There is, as yet, no move against the Afghan Taliban on the Pakistan side of the border, no increase in useable intelligence about the Afghan Taliban being provided to the US or NATO, and no reduction of pressure on NATO supply lines through Pakistan. There is also no move against the Haqqani or Hekmatyar networks, nor against the core of militants and terrorists in the FATA, particularly in North and South Waziristan. Bajaur was flattened and much of its population driven out, but Bajaur has not been held or brought under the writ of the Pakistan state.
Moreover, following Bajaur and earlier operations in the FATA, the army cannot have been unaware of the humanitarian refugee catastrophe, which would result from the failure to properly prepare for the deluge. Is it too cynical to suggest that the army has forced the refugee crisis knowing (as in Sri Lanka) that there will be an international clamour to end the fighting?
The huge unknown, hanging over all these events, is the likely scale and nature of the backlash against the Pakistani state. If, as some believe, a powerful ‘Deobandi complex’ is now taking shape in Pakistan involving militants, religious movements, religious and conservative political parties, Islamist sympathizers, and perhaps some within the army and ISI, then the ‘Af-Pak’ strategy may be seen to have precipitated the first phase of a civil war in Pakistan.
The writer is a professor at the
Pakistan Security Research Unit,
University of Bradford
Mukherjee the ‘Deliverer’ Takes Over as Indian Finance Minister
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Pranab Mukherjee earned a reputation as a trouble shooter in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s cabinet since 2004 by resolving spats among ministries and coalition partners. Now he’s got the job of reviving the economy.
The 73-year-old Congress party veteran was appointed finance minister yesterday, a position he has been acting in since January as Singh, 76, recovered from surgery. He held the defense and then the foreign portfolio for the bulk of Singh’s first term.
Mukherjee, who ran a closed economy as the finance minister in Indira Gandhi’s cabinet from 1982 to 1984, inherits one that is now open and exposed to the global recession. He has called for “accelerating” reforms in banking and insurance to make the economy more competitive and accelerate growth.
“He is a deliverer,” said Alastair Newton, a political analyst at Nomura International Plc in London. “He will have challenges in the economic portfolio given the political realities -- market expectations are high.”
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark stock index surged by a record 17 percent on May 18, the first day after Singh’s re- election, as investors bet the resounding victory will enable the new finance minister to ease foreign investment rules and sell state assets -- policies that were stalled by Singh’s communist partners in his previous term.
Congress has the support of 322 lawmakers in the lower house of parliament, with the party getting 206 lawmakers of its own. That’s the most since 1991, when Singh as finance minister abandoned Soviet-style state planning and introduced free-market policies that have helped India’s economy quadruple in size.
‘Strong Endorsement’
The victory was as much Mukherjee’s as Singh’s. As the No. 2 in the cabinet, he backed the prime minister’s policies ranging from creating jobs in rural areas and writing off farmers’ loans to closer ties with the U.S., renewing a relationship that began in the early 1980s when he appointed Singh as the central bank governor.
“Despite the strong endorsement from voters, the finance minister may have a tough job pushing through some much-needed reforms,” said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “It’s very hard for politicians, for example, to do away with subsidies, which may result in a backlash. Expectations should be tempered.”
India spends one trillion rupees ($21 billion), or a tenth of its budget, on food, fuel and other subsidies each year in a country where the World Bank estimates three-quarters of the people live on less than $2 a day. About 13 percent of spending goes to defense and 20 percent to pay interest on national debt. That leaves little for other needs, such as health, education and power plants, boosting borrowings.
Ballooning Deficit
The federal government budget deficit was at 6 percent of gross domestic product for the year ended March 31, more than double the target of 2.5 percent of GDP.
Moody’s Investors Service places India’s long-term local currency rating at Ba2, two levels below investment grade, and lower than the ratings assigned to Colombia, Romania and Kazakhstan. S&P has a BBB- long term credit rating on India, the lowest investment-grade level.
Investors will be looking at how much fiscal stimulus Mukherjee, who was on the boards of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in the 1980s, can provide in his first policy statement -- the budget for this year -- expected in early July.
Singh’s government said before the elections that stimulus of at least another 1 percent of GDP is needed to prop up an economy that’s growing at its slowest pace since 2003.
Policy Conflicts
Mukherjee, who first became a minister in 1973, estimated in February that India may need to raise a record 3.62 trillion rupees from bond sales in the fiscal year that started April 1. The central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao said May 22 that borrowings have “already expanded rapidly” and that it goes against his efforts to keep borrowing costs low.
“The government faces a challenge to balance two conflicting issues -- to stimulate the economy while preventing fiscal position from further erosion,” said Takahira Ogawa, S&P’s director of sovereign ratings. “There is a possibility for the government to implement various measures to further expand the economy and consolidate the fiscal situation.”
Singh’s administration, which doesn’t need communists’ support for a majority in parliament, could raise as much as $20 billion from sale of state-run companies, according to Rashesh Shah, chief executive officer of Edelweiss Capital Ltd.
Asset Sales
Among the companies that could be placed on the block are NHPC Ltd., India’s largest producer of electricity from water, explorer Oil India Ltd. and fuel retailer Hindustan Petroleum Corp., according to Mumbai-based brokerage Religare Capital Markets Ltd.
Still, analysts such as Seema Desai at Eurasia Group, a London-based political-risk advisory firm, expect economic changes will be “selective and gradual.”
“There is a significant segment within the party that is suspicious of sweeping pro-market reforms,” Desai said.
Mukherjee, who last year successfully rallied China, Japan, Russia and 42 other nations to end India’s nuclear isolation and resume supplies without signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, needs to bring the same acumen to gain support of his party colleagues, many of whom are still tied to the original socialist principles of the Congress party.
At stake is a bill to raise the foreign investment ceiling for Prudential Plc and other insurers to 49 percent from 26 percent, and other proposed legislation aimed at removing a 10 percent cap on the voting rights of foreign investors in non- state banks. The government also wants to allow global retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. into India.
The 73-year-old Congress party veteran was appointed finance minister yesterday, a position he has been acting in since January as Singh, 76, recovered from surgery. He held the defense and then the foreign portfolio for the bulk of Singh’s first term.
Mukherjee, who ran a closed economy as the finance minister in Indira Gandhi’s cabinet from 1982 to 1984, inherits one that is now open and exposed to the global recession. He has called for “accelerating” reforms in banking and insurance to make the economy more competitive and accelerate growth.
“He is a deliverer,” said Alastair Newton, a political analyst at Nomura International Plc in London. “He will have challenges in the economic portfolio given the political realities -- market expectations are high.”
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark stock index surged by a record 17 percent on May 18, the first day after Singh’s re- election, as investors bet the resounding victory will enable the new finance minister to ease foreign investment rules and sell state assets -- policies that were stalled by Singh’s communist partners in his previous term.
Congress has the support of 322 lawmakers in the lower house of parliament, with the party getting 206 lawmakers of its own. That’s the most since 1991, when Singh as finance minister abandoned Soviet-style state planning and introduced free-market policies that have helped India’s economy quadruple in size.
‘Strong Endorsement’
The victory was as much Mukherjee’s as Singh’s. As the No. 2 in the cabinet, he backed the prime minister’s policies ranging from creating jobs in rural areas and writing off farmers’ loans to closer ties with the U.S., renewing a relationship that began in the early 1980s when he appointed Singh as the central bank governor.
“Despite the strong endorsement from voters, the finance minister may have a tough job pushing through some much-needed reforms,” said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “It’s very hard for politicians, for example, to do away with subsidies, which may result in a backlash. Expectations should be tempered.”
India spends one trillion rupees ($21 billion), or a tenth of its budget, on food, fuel and other subsidies each year in a country where the World Bank estimates three-quarters of the people live on less than $2 a day. About 13 percent of spending goes to defense and 20 percent to pay interest on national debt. That leaves little for other needs, such as health, education and power plants, boosting borrowings.
Ballooning Deficit
The federal government budget deficit was at 6 percent of gross domestic product for the year ended March 31, more than double the target of 2.5 percent of GDP.
Moody’s Investors Service places India’s long-term local currency rating at Ba2, two levels below investment grade, and lower than the ratings assigned to Colombia, Romania and Kazakhstan. S&P has a BBB- long term credit rating on India, the lowest investment-grade level.
Investors will be looking at how much fiscal stimulus Mukherjee, who was on the boards of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in the 1980s, can provide in his first policy statement -- the budget for this year -- expected in early July.
Singh’s government said before the elections that stimulus of at least another 1 percent of GDP is needed to prop up an economy that’s growing at its slowest pace since 2003.
Policy Conflicts
Mukherjee, who first became a minister in 1973, estimated in February that India may need to raise a record 3.62 trillion rupees from bond sales in the fiscal year that started April 1. The central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao said May 22 that borrowings have “already expanded rapidly” and that it goes against his efforts to keep borrowing costs low.
“The government faces a challenge to balance two conflicting issues -- to stimulate the economy while preventing fiscal position from further erosion,” said Takahira Ogawa, S&P’s director of sovereign ratings. “There is a possibility for the government to implement various measures to further expand the economy and consolidate the fiscal situation.”
Singh’s administration, which doesn’t need communists’ support for a majority in parliament, could raise as much as $20 billion from sale of state-run companies, according to Rashesh Shah, chief executive officer of Edelweiss Capital Ltd.
Asset Sales
Among the companies that could be placed on the block are NHPC Ltd., India’s largest producer of electricity from water, explorer Oil India Ltd. and fuel retailer Hindustan Petroleum Corp., according to Mumbai-based brokerage Religare Capital Markets Ltd.
Still, analysts such as Seema Desai at Eurasia Group, a London-based political-risk advisory firm, expect economic changes will be “selective and gradual.”
“There is a significant segment within the party that is suspicious of sweeping pro-market reforms,” Desai said.
Mukherjee, who last year successfully rallied China, Japan, Russia and 42 other nations to end India’s nuclear isolation and resume supplies without signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, needs to bring the same acumen to gain support of his party colleagues, many of whom are still tied to the original socialist principles of the Congress party.
At stake is a bill to raise the foreign investment ceiling for Prudential Plc and other insurers to 49 percent from 26 percent, and other proposed legislation aimed at removing a 10 percent cap on the voting rights of foreign investors in non- state banks. The government also wants to allow global retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. into India.
U.S. Relies More on Aid of Allies in Terror Cases
WASHINGTON — The United States is now relying heavily on foreign intelligence services to capture, interrogate and detain all but the highest-level terrorist suspects seized outside the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, according to current and former American government officials.
The change represents a significant loosening of the reins for the United States, which has worked closely with allies to combat violent extremism since the 9/11 attacks but is now pushing that cooperation to new limits.
In the past 10 months, for example, about a half-dozen midlevel financiers and logistics experts working with Al Qaeda have been captured and are being held by intelligence services in four Middle Eastern countries after the United States provided information that led to their arrests by local security services, a former American counterterrorism official said.
In addition, Pakistan’s intelligence and security services captured a Saudi suspect and a Yemeni suspect this year with the help of American intelligence and logistical support, Pakistani officials said. The two are the highest-ranking Qaeda operatives captured since President Obama took office, but they are still being held by Pakistan, which has shared information from their interrogations with the United States, the official said.
The current approach, which began in the last two years of the Bush administration and has gained momentum under Mr. Obama, is driven in part by court rulings and policy changes that have closed the secret prisons run by the Central Intelligence Agency, and all but ended the transfer of prisoners from outside Iraq and Afghanistan to American military prisons.
Human rights advocates say that relying on foreign governments to hold and question terrorist suspects could carry significant risks. It could increase the potential for abuse at the hands of foreign interrogators and could also yield bad intelligence, they say.
The fate of many terrorist suspects whom the Bush administration sent to foreign countries remains uncertain. One suspect, Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, who was captured by the C.I.A. in late 2001 and sent to Libya, was recently reported to have died there in Libyan custody.
“As a practical matter you have to rely on partner governments, so the focus should be on pressing and assisting those governments to handle those cases professionally,” said Tom Malinowski, Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch.
The United States itself has not detained any high-level terrorist suspects outside Iraq and Afghanistan since Mr. Obama took office, and the question of where to detain the most senior terrorist suspects on a long-term basis is being debated within the new administration. Even deciding where the two Qaeda suspects in Pakistani custody will be kept over the long term is “extremely, extremely sensitive right now,” a senior American military official said, adding, “They’re both bad dudes. The issue is: where do they get parked so they stay parked?”
How the United States is dealing with terrorism suspects beyond those already in the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, was a question Mr. Obama did not address in the speech he gave Thursday about his antiterrorism policies. While he said he might seek to create a new system that would allow preventive detention inside the United States, the government currently has no obvious long-term detention center for imprisoning terrorism suspects without court oversight.
Mr. Obama has said he still intends to close the Guantánamo prison by January, despite misgivings in Congress, and the Supreme Court has ruled that inmates there may challenge their detention before federal judges. Some suspects are being imprisoned without charges at a United States air base in Afghanistan, but a federal court has ruled that at least some of them may also file habeas corpus lawsuits to challenge their detentions.
American officials say that in the last years of the Bush administration and now on Mr. Obama’s watch, the balance has shifted toward leaving all but the most high-level terrorist suspects in foreign rather than American custody. The United States has repatriated hundreds of detainees held at prisons in Cuba, Iraq and Afghanistan, but the current approach is different because it seeks to keep the prisoners out of American custody altogether.
How the United States deals with terrorism suspects remains a contentious issue in Congress.
Leon E. Panetta, the director of the C.I.A., said in February that the agency might continue its program of extraordinary rendition, in which captured terrorism suspects are transferred to other countries without extradition proceedings.
He said the C.I.A. would be likely to continue to transfer detainees from their place of capture to other countries, either their home countries or nations that intended to bring charges against them.
As a safeguard against torture, Mr. Panetta said, the United States would rely on diplomatic assurances of good treatment. The Bush administration sought the same assurances, which critics say are ineffective.
A half-dozen current and former American intelligence and counterterrorism officials and allied officials were interviewed for this article, but all spoke on the condition of anonymity because the detention and interrogation programs are classified.
Officials say the United States has learned so much about Al Qaeda and other militant groups since the 9/11 attacks that it can safely rely on foreign partners to detain and question more suspects. “It’s the preferred method now,” one former counterterrorism official said.
The Obama administration’s policies will probably become clearer after two task forces the president created in January report to him in July on detainee policy, interrogation techniques and extraordinary rendition.
In many instances now, allies are using information provided by the United States to pick up terrorism suspects on their own territory — including the two suspects seized in Pakistan this year.
The Saudi militant, Zabi al-Taifi, was picked up by Pakistani commandos in a dawn raid at a safe house outside Peshawar on Jan. 22, an operation conducted with the help of the C.I.A.
A Pakistani official said the Yemeni suspect, Abu Sufyan al-Yemeni, was a Qaeda paramilitary commander who was on C.I.A. and Pakistani lists of the top 20 Qaeda operatives. He was believed to be a conduit for communications between Qaeda leaders in Pakistan and cells in East Africa, Iran, Yemen and elsewhere. American and Pakistani intelligence officials say they believe that Mr. Yemeni, who was arrested Feb. 24 by Pakistani authorities in Quetta, helped arrange travel and training for Qaeda operatives from various parts of the Muslim world to the Pakistani tribal areas.
He is now in the custody of Pakistan’s main spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, but his fate is unclear. The Pakistani official said that he would remain in Pakistani hands, but that it would be difficult to try him because the evidence against him came from informers.
American officials said the United States would still take custody of the most senior Qaeda operatives captured in the future. As a model, they cited the case of Abd al-Hadi al-Iraqi, an Iraqi Kurd who is said to have joined Al Qaeda in the late 1990s and risen to become a top aide to Osama bin Laden, and who was captured by a foreign security service in 2006. He was handed over to the C.I.A., which transferred him to Guantánamo Bay in April 2007. He was one of the last detainees shipped there.
The change represents a significant loosening of the reins for the United States, which has worked closely with allies to combat violent extremism since the 9/11 attacks but is now pushing that cooperation to new limits.
In the past 10 months, for example, about a half-dozen midlevel financiers and logistics experts working with Al Qaeda have been captured and are being held by intelligence services in four Middle Eastern countries after the United States provided information that led to their arrests by local security services, a former American counterterrorism official said.
In addition, Pakistan’s intelligence and security services captured a Saudi suspect and a Yemeni suspect this year with the help of American intelligence and logistical support, Pakistani officials said. The two are the highest-ranking Qaeda operatives captured since President Obama took office, but they are still being held by Pakistan, which has shared information from their interrogations with the United States, the official said.
The current approach, which began in the last two years of the Bush administration and has gained momentum under Mr. Obama, is driven in part by court rulings and policy changes that have closed the secret prisons run by the Central Intelligence Agency, and all but ended the transfer of prisoners from outside Iraq and Afghanistan to American military prisons.
Human rights advocates say that relying on foreign governments to hold and question terrorist suspects could carry significant risks. It could increase the potential for abuse at the hands of foreign interrogators and could also yield bad intelligence, they say.
The fate of many terrorist suspects whom the Bush administration sent to foreign countries remains uncertain. One suspect, Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, who was captured by the C.I.A. in late 2001 and sent to Libya, was recently reported to have died there in Libyan custody.
“As a practical matter you have to rely on partner governments, so the focus should be on pressing and assisting those governments to handle those cases professionally,” said Tom Malinowski, Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch.
The United States itself has not detained any high-level terrorist suspects outside Iraq and Afghanistan since Mr. Obama took office, and the question of where to detain the most senior terrorist suspects on a long-term basis is being debated within the new administration. Even deciding where the two Qaeda suspects in Pakistani custody will be kept over the long term is “extremely, extremely sensitive right now,” a senior American military official said, adding, “They’re both bad dudes. The issue is: where do they get parked so they stay parked?”
How the United States is dealing with terrorism suspects beyond those already in the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, was a question Mr. Obama did not address in the speech he gave Thursday about his antiterrorism policies. While he said he might seek to create a new system that would allow preventive detention inside the United States, the government currently has no obvious long-term detention center for imprisoning terrorism suspects without court oversight.
Mr. Obama has said he still intends to close the Guantánamo prison by January, despite misgivings in Congress, and the Supreme Court has ruled that inmates there may challenge their detention before federal judges. Some suspects are being imprisoned without charges at a United States air base in Afghanistan, but a federal court has ruled that at least some of them may also file habeas corpus lawsuits to challenge their detentions.
American officials say that in the last years of the Bush administration and now on Mr. Obama’s watch, the balance has shifted toward leaving all but the most high-level terrorist suspects in foreign rather than American custody. The United States has repatriated hundreds of detainees held at prisons in Cuba, Iraq and Afghanistan, but the current approach is different because it seeks to keep the prisoners out of American custody altogether.
How the United States deals with terrorism suspects remains a contentious issue in Congress.
Leon E. Panetta, the director of the C.I.A., said in February that the agency might continue its program of extraordinary rendition, in which captured terrorism suspects are transferred to other countries without extradition proceedings.
He said the C.I.A. would be likely to continue to transfer detainees from their place of capture to other countries, either their home countries or nations that intended to bring charges against them.
As a safeguard against torture, Mr. Panetta said, the United States would rely on diplomatic assurances of good treatment. The Bush administration sought the same assurances, which critics say are ineffective.
A half-dozen current and former American intelligence and counterterrorism officials and allied officials were interviewed for this article, but all spoke on the condition of anonymity because the detention and interrogation programs are classified.
Officials say the United States has learned so much about Al Qaeda and other militant groups since the 9/11 attacks that it can safely rely on foreign partners to detain and question more suspects. “It’s the preferred method now,” one former counterterrorism official said.
The Obama administration’s policies will probably become clearer after two task forces the president created in January report to him in July on detainee policy, interrogation techniques and extraordinary rendition.
In many instances now, allies are using information provided by the United States to pick up terrorism suspects on their own territory — including the two suspects seized in Pakistan this year.
The Saudi militant, Zabi al-Taifi, was picked up by Pakistani commandos in a dawn raid at a safe house outside Peshawar on Jan. 22, an operation conducted with the help of the C.I.A.
A Pakistani official said the Yemeni suspect, Abu Sufyan al-Yemeni, was a Qaeda paramilitary commander who was on C.I.A. and Pakistani lists of the top 20 Qaeda operatives. He was believed to be a conduit for communications between Qaeda leaders in Pakistan and cells in East Africa, Iran, Yemen and elsewhere. American and Pakistani intelligence officials say they believe that Mr. Yemeni, who was arrested Feb. 24 by Pakistani authorities in Quetta, helped arrange travel and training for Qaeda operatives from various parts of the Muslim world to the Pakistani tribal areas.
He is now in the custody of Pakistan’s main spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, but his fate is unclear. The Pakistani official said that he would remain in Pakistani hands, but that it would be difficult to try him because the evidence against him came from informers.
American officials said the United States would still take custody of the most senior Qaeda operatives captured in the future. As a model, they cited the case of Abd al-Hadi al-Iraqi, an Iraqi Kurd who is said to have joined Al Qaeda in the late 1990s and risen to become a top aide to Osama bin Laden, and who was captured by a foreign security service in 2006. He was handed over to the C.I.A., which transferred him to Guantánamo Bay in April 2007. He was one of the last detainees shipped there.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Pakistan seeks $600m in emergency funds
Pakistan’s prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani will seek at least $600m in emergency funds from donors on Thursday to fund up to 2m internally displaced people from the embattled Swat valley – described by UN officials as one of the word’s worst refugee crises.
On Tuesday, the US government said it would provide $110m in emergency aid in a move which President Barack Obama hoped would demonstrate his country’s support for Pakistan in its fight against extremists.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Transcript: FT interview with Pakistan’s top finance official - May-21
Western diplomats warned that many Pakistanis who are already sceptical of support to the western world, notably the US, would intensify their opposition to future military offensives if the humanitarian crisis intensified.
Shaukat Tarin, the de facto Finance Minister told the Financial Times that they were looking for between $600m to $1bn in emergency relief funds.
Mr Tarin said the funds sought were only the first instalment in meeting the costs of the conflict in the Swat valley where government forces are fighting Taliban militants to thwart their creeping incursion into Pakistan. Hundreds of thousands have fled the region in recent weeks sparking one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Hasan Askari Rizvi, a respected Pakistan commentator on political and security affairs said he believed the military operation had almost succeeded in Swat in either driving out or killing up to four thousand ‘Taliban’ militants. Up to 1,000 Taliban militants have been killed in the past week alone, according to government statistics.
However, Mr Rizvi warned, that a failure by donors to help to fund the engagement and also the relief operation would fuel domestic opposition to future such military action.
Mr Tarin said a meeting of the Friends of Pakistan - an international grouping of the country’s largest donors - will take place in Turkey later this year where Pakistan will formally seek support to fund annual security costs of about $2.5b-$3b. The Turkey meeting will follow last month’s meeting of the Friends group in Tokyo in which $5.5bn were pledged in economic support to Pakistan.
“As far as the security is concerned, we have already said that this war on terror is now costing our economy $8.5bn a year in terms of lost exports, lost investments, increased expenses and loss in revenue,” he said. “I believe direct annual cost of the security apparatus is about $2.5b-$3b in the next two years. This is for trying to raise another force and to give them equipment”.
A western diplomat said, it was important for the global community “to keep on encouraging Pakistan and keep on nudging it in the right direction by giving enough support for the refugees”.
On Tuesday, the US government said it would provide $110m in emergency aid in a move which President Barack Obama hoped would demonstrate his country’s support for Pakistan in its fight against extremists.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Transcript: FT interview with Pakistan’s top finance official - May-21
Western diplomats warned that many Pakistanis who are already sceptical of support to the western world, notably the US, would intensify their opposition to future military offensives if the humanitarian crisis intensified.
Shaukat Tarin, the de facto Finance Minister told the Financial Times that they were looking for between $600m to $1bn in emergency relief funds.
Mr Tarin said the funds sought were only the first instalment in meeting the costs of the conflict in the Swat valley where government forces are fighting Taliban militants to thwart their creeping incursion into Pakistan. Hundreds of thousands have fled the region in recent weeks sparking one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Hasan Askari Rizvi, a respected Pakistan commentator on political and security affairs said he believed the military operation had almost succeeded in Swat in either driving out or killing up to four thousand ‘Taliban’ militants. Up to 1,000 Taliban militants have been killed in the past week alone, according to government statistics.
However, Mr Rizvi warned, that a failure by donors to help to fund the engagement and also the relief operation would fuel domestic opposition to future such military action.
Mr Tarin said a meeting of the Friends of Pakistan - an international grouping of the country’s largest donors - will take place in Turkey later this year where Pakistan will formally seek support to fund annual security costs of about $2.5b-$3b. The Turkey meeting will follow last month’s meeting of the Friends group in Tokyo in which $5.5bn were pledged in economic support to Pakistan.
“As far as the security is concerned, we have already said that this war on terror is now costing our economy $8.5bn a year in terms of lost exports, lost investments, increased expenses and loss in revenue,” he said. “I believe direct annual cost of the security apparatus is about $2.5b-$3b in the next two years. This is for trying to raise another force and to give them equipment”.
A western diplomat said, it was important for the global community “to keep on encouraging Pakistan and keep on nudging it in the right direction by giving enough support for the refugees”.
India’s Stocks Rise, Posting Biggest Weekly Advance in 17 Years
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks rose, with the benchmark index posting its steepest weekly gain in 17 years, on speculation the ruling party will accelerate economic reforms after its biggest election victory in two decades.
Larsen & Toubro Ltd., India’s largest engineering company, added 5 percent, leading construction stocks higher on expectation infrastructure spending will be boosted to buoy an economy expanding at its slowest pace in six years. Reliance Industries Ltd., the biggest company by market value, gained 3.3 percent.
“The market is expecting the reform process will speed up,” said Naresh Kumar Garg, chief investment officer at Sahara Asset Management Co. in Mumbai, who manages $45 million in assets. He is confident “infrastructure investment will rise” in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s second term.
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, added 150.61, or 1.1 percent, to 13,887.15, after swinging between gains and losses at least seven times. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 0.7 percent to 4,238.50. The BSE 200 Index increased 1.1 percent to 1,684.27.
The Sensex’s 14 percent gain this week is its sharpest advance since the week ended March 27, 1992. The measure has risen for 11 consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since August 2005.
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. led declines among metal producers after copper prices fell in London.
‘Modest’ Export Dependence
India’s “modest” dependence on exports will help the economy weather the global recession and recover this year, reducing the need for further stimulus, central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said today.
Larsen and Toubro jumped 5 percent to 1,300.75 rupees. Reliance Industries climbed 3.3 percent to 2,185.75 rupees. NTPC Ltd., the biggest power producer, rose 2.1 percent to 216.60 rupees, its highest in 15 months.
Sterlite lost 4.6 percent to 507.85 rupees. Tata Steel Ltd. dropped 0.6 percent to 363.65 rupees. Copper slumped 2.6 percent and a gauge of six metals in London dropped 3.7 percent, the most since April 20.
The following stocks were among the most active on the exchange:
Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT IN) fell 3.3 percent to 345.75 rupees. India’s biggest commercial-vehicle maker plans to complete the refinancing of a bridge loan used to buy its Jaguar and Land Rover luxury units by early next week, spokesman Debasis Ray said yesterday.
Airlines: Jet Airways (India) Ltd. (JETIN IN) rose 5.5 percent to 304.40 rupees, Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. (KAIR IN) rose 13 percent to 62.25 rupees and Spicejet Ltd. (SJET IN) jumped 10 percent to 21.71 rupees. The domestic carriers surged on speculation the country’s new government may ease investment rules.
Reliance Capital Ltd. (RCFT IN) added 5.3 percent to 903.30 rupees. The company owned by billionaire Anil Ambani gained on speculation the new government would ease restrictions for overseas investment in the insurance industry.
Larsen & Toubro Ltd., India’s largest engineering company, added 5 percent, leading construction stocks higher on expectation infrastructure spending will be boosted to buoy an economy expanding at its slowest pace in six years. Reliance Industries Ltd., the biggest company by market value, gained 3.3 percent.
“The market is expecting the reform process will speed up,” said Naresh Kumar Garg, chief investment officer at Sahara Asset Management Co. in Mumbai, who manages $45 million in assets. He is confident “infrastructure investment will rise” in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s second term.
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, added 150.61, or 1.1 percent, to 13,887.15, after swinging between gains and losses at least seven times. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 0.7 percent to 4,238.50. The BSE 200 Index increased 1.1 percent to 1,684.27.
The Sensex’s 14 percent gain this week is its sharpest advance since the week ended March 27, 1992. The measure has risen for 11 consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since August 2005.
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. led declines among metal producers after copper prices fell in London.
‘Modest’ Export Dependence
India’s “modest” dependence on exports will help the economy weather the global recession and recover this year, reducing the need for further stimulus, central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said today.
Larsen and Toubro jumped 5 percent to 1,300.75 rupees. Reliance Industries climbed 3.3 percent to 2,185.75 rupees. NTPC Ltd., the biggest power producer, rose 2.1 percent to 216.60 rupees, its highest in 15 months.
Sterlite lost 4.6 percent to 507.85 rupees. Tata Steel Ltd. dropped 0.6 percent to 363.65 rupees. Copper slumped 2.6 percent and a gauge of six metals in London dropped 3.7 percent, the most since April 20.
The following stocks were among the most active on the exchange:
Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT IN) fell 3.3 percent to 345.75 rupees. India’s biggest commercial-vehicle maker plans to complete the refinancing of a bridge loan used to buy its Jaguar and Land Rover luxury units by early next week, spokesman Debasis Ray said yesterday.
Airlines: Jet Airways (India) Ltd. (JETIN IN) rose 5.5 percent to 304.40 rupees, Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. (KAIR IN) rose 13 percent to 62.25 rupees and Spicejet Ltd. (SJET IN) jumped 10 percent to 21.71 rupees. The domestic carriers surged on speculation the country’s new government may ease investment rules.
Reliance Capital Ltd. (RCFT IN) added 5.3 percent to 903.30 rupees. The company owned by billionaire Anil Ambani gained on speculation the new government would ease restrictions for overseas investment in the insurance industry.
Singh May Set Record in India Asset Sales After Election Victory
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who began his second term this week, may set a record for selling state assets as he revives efforts that were foiled by his former communist allies, bankers and analysts said.
The new administration could start by resuming share sale plans for NHPC Ltd., India’s largest producer of electricity from water, explorer Oil India Ltd. and fuel retailer Hindustan Petroleum Corp., according to Mumbai-based brokerage Religare Capital Markets Ltd.
Singh may sell $20 billion of state assets in the next five years as he tries to plug a budget shortfall, said Rashesh Shah, chief executive officer of Edelweiss Capital Ltd. After a privatization wave that netted a record $6 billion between 1999 and 2004 to a government led by Singh’s main opponents, sales slumped during his first term as communist allies thwarted plans.
“Sales by this government will be significantly higher than the previous record,” S. Subramanian, head of investment banking at Enam Financial Consultants Ltd. in Mumbai, said in an interview. Mumbai-based Enam has managed share offerings for state-owned companies including Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd., CMC Ltd. and Power Finance Corp.
Singh’s Congress party-led coalition faces a fiscal deficit that’s more than double the government target and an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2003.
The nation will sell stakes in companies as promised by the Congress party’s election manifesto, P. Chidambaram, who was in charge of the finance and home ministries in Singh’s previous administration, said on May 18. Singh, the first premier to win re-election after serving a full term since 1971, doesn’t need the Communists’ support for his new administration after winning the backing of 322 lawmakers in the 545-seat lower house.
‘Right to Own’
“The Indian people have every right to own part of the shares of public sector companies while the government retains majority shareholding,” the election manifesto said. Still, Congress “rejects the policy of blind privatization” followed by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies, it said.
Singh, 76, raised 67 billion rupees ($1.41 billion) from selling stakes in NTPC Ltd. and Rural Electrification Corp. of India Ltd. during his first term, according to India’s Department of Disinvestment. Then-finance minister Chidambaram’s plans to sell shares in companies including Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., India’s biggest maker of power equipment, and National Aluminium Co. were blocked by the communists in 2006.
The previous Singh administration waived farm loans, raised government employees’ salaries for the first time in 12 years, cut taxes and increased spending on roads, ports and other infrastructure as it sought to revive economic growth and shore up support before the election. That strained state finances as the economic slowdown hurt tax collections.
Strained Finances
India’s fiscal deficit reached 6 percent of gross domestic product in the year ended March 31, surpassing the 2.5 percent government target.
The prospect of a wider budget shortfall prompted Standard & Poor’s to say in February that India’s spending plans were “not sustainable” and the nation’s credit rating may be cut to junk if finances worsen.
“The government will now have the ability to look at disinvestment seriously in the context of the fiscal deficit,” S. Ramesh, chief operating officer of Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.’s investment banking unit, said in an interview. “The numbers can be significant.”
Raising 100 billion rupees from share sales and initial public offerings in the financial year that began April 1 would help cut the fiscal deficit by a quarter-point, according to Religare estimates.
NHPC, Oil India
Companies in which the government had planned to reduce its holding through an IPO, only to scrap the proposals, may be first in line for sales, Religare said in a May 12 research note. Such firms include NHPC, which had expected to raise 55 billion rupees, RITES Ltd., and Oil India, the brokerage said.
The nation’s Disinvestment Committee had also previously recommended cutting stakes in Shipping Corp. of India Ltd., National Buildings Construction Corp., Projects & Equipment Corp., Hindustan Shipyard and Electronics Corp. of India, making them likely candidates during Singh’s second term, Religare said.
Delivering on asset sales pledges may reassure foreign investors that Singh is also serious about economic reforms aimed at making India more competitive. Overseas funds bought $3.1 billion of Indian equities so far in May, the most in a month since October 2007, according to Bloomberg data.
“There’s a huge backlog of offers that will get cleared now,” said Ravi Sardana, senior vice president of ICICI Securities Ltd. “It is also a good message for global investors.”
The new administration could start by resuming share sale plans for NHPC Ltd., India’s largest producer of electricity from water, explorer Oil India Ltd. and fuel retailer Hindustan Petroleum Corp., according to Mumbai-based brokerage Religare Capital Markets Ltd.
Singh may sell $20 billion of state assets in the next five years as he tries to plug a budget shortfall, said Rashesh Shah, chief executive officer of Edelweiss Capital Ltd. After a privatization wave that netted a record $6 billion between 1999 and 2004 to a government led by Singh’s main opponents, sales slumped during his first term as communist allies thwarted plans.
“Sales by this government will be significantly higher than the previous record,” S. Subramanian, head of investment banking at Enam Financial Consultants Ltd. in Mumbai, said in an interview. Mumbai-based Enam has managed share offerings for state-owned companies including Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd., CMC Ltd. and Power Finance Corp.
Singh’s Congress party-led coalition faces a fiscal deficit that’s more than double the government target and an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2003.
The nation will sell stakes in companies as promised by the Congress party’s election manifesto, P. Chidambaram, who was in charge of the finance and home ministries in Singh’s previous administration, said on May 18. Singh, the first premier to win re-election after serving a full term since 1971, doesn’t need the Communists’ support for his new administration after winning the backing of 322 lawmakers in the 545-seat lower house.
‘Right to Own’
“The Indian people have every right to own part of the shares of public sector companies while the government retains majority shareholding,” the election manifesto said. Still, Congress “rejects the policy of blind privatization” followed by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies, it said.
Singh, 76, raised 67 billion rupees ($1.41 billion) from selling stakes in NTPC Ltd. and Rural Electrification Corp. of India Ltd. during his first term, according to India’s Department of Disinvestment. Then-finance minister Chidambaram’s plans to sell shares in companies including Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., India’s biggest maker of power equipment, and National Aluminium Co. were blocked by the communists in 2006.
The previous Singh administration waived farm loans, raised government employees’ salaries for the first time in 12 years, cut taxes and increased spending on roads, ports and other infrastructure as it sought to revive economic growth and shore up support before the election. That strained state finances as the economic slowdown hurt tax collections.
Strained Finances
India’s fiscal deficit reached 6 percent of gross domestic product in the year ended March 31, surpassing the 2.5 percent government target.
The prospect of a wider budget shortfall prompted Standard & Poor’s to say in February that India’s spending plans were “not sustainable” and the nation’s credit rating may be cut to junk if finances worsen.
“The government will now have the ability to look at disinvestment seriously in the context of the fiscal deficit,” S. Ramesh, chief operating officer of Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.’s investment banking unit, said in an interview. “The numbers can be significant.”
Raising 100 billion rupees from share sales and initial public offerings in the financial year that began April 1 would help cut the fiscal deficit by a quarter-point, according to Religare estimates.
NHPC, Oil India
Companies in which the government had planned to reduce its holding through an IPO, only to scrap the proposals, may be first in line for sales, Religare said in a May 12 research note. Such firms include NHPC, which had expected to raise 55 billion rupees, RITES Ltd., and Oil India, the brokerage said.
The nation’s Disinvestment Committee had also previously recommended cutting stakes in Shipping Corp. of India Ltd., National Buildings Construction Corp., Projects & Equipment Corp., Hindustan Shipyard and Electronics Corp. of India, making them likely candidates during Singh’s second term, Religare said.
Delivering on asset sales pledges may reassure foreign investors that Singh is also serious about economic reforms aimed at making India more competitive. Overseas funds bought $3.1 billion of Indian equities so far in May, the most in a month since October 2007, according to Bloomberg data.
“There’s a huge backlog of offers that will get cleared now,” said Ravi Sardana, senior vice president of ICICI Securities Ltd. “It is also a good message for global investors.”
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