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Monday, May 7, 2012

India Defers Tax Avoidance Rule in Boost for Currency By Tushar Dhara and Unni Krishnan - May 7, 2012

Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee retreated on tax proposals to salvage investor confidence in Asia’s third-largest economy, lifting stocks from a four-month low and buoying the nation’s currency.

The applicability of a new rule to reduce tax avoidance will be delayed until the fiscal year beginning April 2013, Mukherjee said in parliament yesterday. The clampdown in the planned General Anti-Avoidance Rule, or GAAR, had stoked concern that foreign investment will decline, hurting growth.

The postponement follows a series of policy reversals by Prime MinisterManmohan Singh’s government, which is struggling to revive an economy expanding at the slowest pace since 2009. While the earlier setbacks dimmed the outlook for investment, stocks and the rupee rose as Mukherjee backed down from the anti-avoidance measure less than two months after announcing it in India’s annual budget.

“It’s a flip flop in the positive sense since the finance minister wouldn’t want to tarnish the image of the economy,” said Jay Shankar, chief economist at Religare Capital Markets Ltd. in Mumbai. “But it shows the indecisiveness and lack of leadership in the government.”

The rupee strengthened 1.1 percent to 52.9150 per dollar yesterday, while the BSE India Sensitive Index of stocks rose 0.5 percent, erasing earlier losses. The currency weakened 16 percent last year, the worst performance in Asia.
Short-Term Boost

In the March 16 budget, Mukherjee unveiled GAAR to target avoidance by companies that use tax treaties between India and other countries. Foreign funds that route investments into India via other nations were concerned the new rule may apply to their holdings.

The burden of proving tax evasion under GAAR will be on the revenue department and steps will be taken to ensure it’s applied objectively, he said.

The deferral of the rule “should be positive in the short term,” said Prasanna Ananthasubramanian, chief economist at Mumbai-based ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd. “I expect capital flows should pick up because the India-related uncertainty has gone away.”

Mukherjee in the budget also proposed retrospective clarifications to ensure the taxation of deals conducted overseas in which an Indian business is transferred. That plan followed a ruling in January by India’s Supreme Court that Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) doesn’t have to pay $2.2 billion in tax on its purchase, conducted offshore, of the Indian business of Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. (13) in 2007.
Foreign Investment

The retrospective clarification won’t override India’s double-taxation agreements and cases where assessment orders have already been finalized won’t be reopened, he said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner discussed the tax plans with Mukherjee last month after American trade and lobby groups said they may lead to retroactive bills for periods of as much as 50 years and deter foreign investment.

The Indian finance minister also said yesterday that the long-term capital gains tax rate for non-resident investors and private equity firms will be reduced to 10 percent from 20 percent. Proceeds from initial public offerings will be exempt from the levy, while being subject to a securities transaction tax of 0.2 percent, he said.

Mukherjee, who faces the widest fiscal deficit among the biggest emerging economies, was introducing changes to his budget in parliament. He has said he aims to narrow the shortfall to 5.1 percent of gross domestic product this fiscal year from 5.9 percent in the 12 months through March 2012.
Challenging Periods

Singh’s administration is facing one of the most challenging periods since taking office in 2004 as opposition from within the ruling coalition stymies efforts to further open up the economy. Among the setbacks was the suspension in December of plans to open India’s retail industry to foreign companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)

India is also grappling with the fastest inflation in the so-called BRIC group of biggest emerging nations that also includes Brazil, Russia and China. India also has a record trade deficit that’s pressured the rupee.

Standard & Poor’s lowered India sovereign credit outlook to negative from stable on April 25, citing weaker investment and a deterioration in the current account, the broadest measure of trade. The move took the economy a step closer to so-called junk status.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao cut India’s repurchase rate by a greater-than-forecast half a percentage point on April 17 to 8 percent, seeking to bolster expansion with the first reduction since 2009. Inflation was 6.89 percent in March.

The government estimates that India’s economy expanded 6.9 percent in 2011-2012, the slowest pace since in three fiscal years, hurt by costlier credit, inflation and slower exports.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tushar Dhara in New Delhi at tdhara1@bloomberg.net; Unni Krishnan in New Delhi at ukrishnan2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at sphang@bloomberg.net
®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Hollande Vows to Fight Austerity After Beating Sarkozy By Helene Fouquet - May 6, 2012

Francois Hollande, who defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy to become the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy, pledged to push for less austerity and more growth in the region.

“Austerity is not inevitable,” he told supporters in Tulle, France, last night after he got about 52 percent against about 48 percent for Sarkozy.

Hollande inherits an economy that is barely growing, with jobless claims at their highest in 12 years and a rising debt load that makes France vulnerable to the financial crisis that has rocked the euro region the past two years. Sarkozy became the ninth euro leader to fall in that time and the first French president in more than 30 years to fail to win re-election.

“Hollande’s bet was that rejection of Nicolas Sarkozy was enough to get him elected,” Dominique Reynie, senior researcher at Paris’s Institute of Political Studies, said before the vote. “The message was that if you don’t like Sarkozy then I’m your best bet.”

Sarkozy’s departure may sharpen tensions with key allies as Hollande has advocated a more aggressive European Central Bank role in spurring growth -- a measure opposed by Germany -- and an accelerated withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Hollande’s comments were echoed in Greece, where voters flocked to anti-bailout groups, leaving the two main parties, New Democracy and Pasok, a seat short of a majority if they govern together, an Interior Ministry projection showed.
French Yields

In France, the campaign isn’t over. The country elects its lower house of parliament in five weeks, prompting calls from backers of both Hollande and Sarkozy to keep fighting.

While Socialists stand ready to dominate policy making for the first time since 1993 -- holding both the presidency and the Cabinet -- bond yields suggest Hollande may maintain market confidence. Ten-year French debt yields 124 basis points more than comparable German securities. That’s down from 145 basis points after he won the first round April 22 and lower than the 133 basis points at the start of the year.

Hollande supporters gathered yesterday to celebrate with music, tears of joy and impossibly clotted crowds. Paris’s Bastille square drew thousands of people. Hollande was in rainy Tulle, his home district in central France, where crowds were entertained by giant video screens and Stevie Wonder songs.

“It’s where presidents grow like mushrooms,” said 65- year-old retiree Andre Laurier, noting Tulle’s the region of Jacques Chirac and Georges Pompidou as well.
Hollande’s Task

Conceding defeat yesterday, Sarkozy said, “after 35 years of politics, after 10 years at the highest levels of government, after five years as head of state, I will become a Frenchman among the French.”

Hollande faces the task of increasing competitiveness, cutting the budget deficit and spurring growth while keeping the region’s financial woes at bay. Campaigning against the most unpopular president in postwar France, he avoided specifics.

“We expect resistance to change and proposals to preserve France’s social model to prevail once Parliament reconvenes after June 26,” Natacha Valla, a Paris-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote on May 4.

Hollande sought to portray himself as the anti-Sarkozy leader, calling himself “normal” to contrast with the incumbent known in the media as “President bling-bling.”

Hollande is the second Socialist president of the Fifth Republic, established in 1958. Francois Mitterrand was first.

His path to power followed a traditional French route. He graduated from the Institute for Political Sciences in Paris and the National School of Administration, schools that trained all post-war presidents, except Sarkozy and Charles de Gaulle.
Fall Into Line

He was educated at HEC-Paris, a business school where he befriended some who were to become corporate leaders, such as Axa SA (CS) Chief Executive Officer Henri de Castries. His social circle includes Jean-Bernard Levy, CEO of Vivendi SA, and Jean- Louis Beffa, former CEO of Cie. de Saint-Gobain.

In the early 1980s, Hollande went to work for Mitterrand, helping him nationalize companies. A decade later, he helped Prime Minister Lionel Jospin sell them to help the Socialist government cut its debts to join the euro.

“The pressure to clarify the position after a change in government will be high and it will be immediate,” said Steven Major, head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. Investors are “looking through the election and reasoning that the government will fall into line.”

Hollande has proposed higher taxes for big companies and cuts for small and medium-sized businesses; a 75 percent levy on incomes above 1 million euros a year and special taxes on banks and oil companies.
More Spending

His platform would raise spending by 20 billion euros ($26.3 billion) over his five-year term and the retirement age for those who started working at 18 years old pushed back to 60 from 62. He said he would discuss with France’s banks the split of their retail and investment activities.

Tax increases and eliminating loopholes would seek to raise 29 billion euros. The budget plan aims to eliminate the deficit in 2017, one year later than under Sarkozy’s plan, with a 3 percent of gross domestic product deficit target for 2013.

Minutes after Hollande’s victory was announced, political leaders were already fighting over the legislative elections set for June 10 and June 17.

“We need a majority in parliament,” Jean-Marc Ayrault, who heads the Socialist Party in the National Assembly, said on France 2 television. Former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said, “What’s very important now is to put together a great opposition force.”
Against Austerity

Outside of France, Hollande has called for re-negotiating the German-inspired deficit rules that leaders agreed upon in December. At the same time, he reached out to France’s neighbor and biggest trade partner.

A German government spokesman said that diplomatic contacts had been made with the Hollande camp. Pierre Moscovici, his campaign chief and a possible key member of the future government, told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper on May 5 that the new government would not create a “crisis” with its main partner.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble indicated May 4 enough flexibility to allow Hollande to “save face.”

“I’ve said that everybody who gets freshly elected into office must be able to save face,” Schaeuble said. “So we will discuss this with Hollande in a very friendly way. But we won’t change our principles.”

Concern of a Franco-German cleavage undermining economic policy making in the euro region is “exaggerated,” Morgan Stanley chief economist Joachim Fels wrote in a note yesterday.

A native of Rouen, the Norman city where Joan of Arc was burned at the stake by the English in the 15th century, Hollande has spent his career mainly behind the scenes and kept his position as party leader even after two humiliating Socialist losses under his watch -- in 2002 and 2007.

In 2007, Segolene Royal, the mother of his four children, lost to Sarkozy. In the subsequent months, she announced their separation. Hollande now lives with Valerie Trierweiler, a journalist for Paris Match magazine.

To contact the reporter on this story: Helene Fouquet in Paris at hfouquet1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net
®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Friday, May 4, 2012

India’s Quest for Coal Stalls as Red Tape Kills Mining Takeovers By Editors: Larry Reibstein - May 3, 2012

India’s quest for natural resources to power its growing economy and compete with China has met the enemy: Its own red tape.

Thwarted by lengthy bureaucratic delays for approvals, Indian state companies have lost out on or walked away from at least seven purchases of overseas coal and mining assets in the last two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They have completed just a single overseas deal between them in that time.

In one would-be deal, International Coal Ventures Ltd., a venture of state-owned companies, had to run a gauntlet of seven ministries and a committee, called the Empowered Committee of Secretaries, to seek approval to buy a coal mine in Australia, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The company is still awaiting a sign-off after four months, as the overseeing committee hasn’t met for three months to discuss the $300 million deal. The delay has cost International Coal its status as exclusive bidder for the mine, owned by Aquila Resources Ltd., said one of the people.

“We have found ourselves struggling in the global arena,” said Sanjeev Krishna, an executive director at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in Mumbai who focuses on mergers and private equity. State-controlled companies “have suffered as a result of not having the independence to make these acquisitions.”
Trailing China

The balky approval process highlights the challenge facing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as he jostles with China for resources needed to reduce India’s reliance on imported coal, copper and other raw materials. Chinese companies have completed $21 billion of overseas acquisitions of coal and mining assets in the past two years, more than four times the value of India’s deals, including private purchases, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

India’s domestic coal production, which fires more than half of its power generation, is falling behind demand. In five years, the country will need 981 million metric tons annually compared with output of 715 million tons, the government estimates. Environmental restrictions and approval delays have stymied efforts to expand production.

To offset the gap this year, India may import more than 118 million tons of coal, a volume that would see it overtake China as the world’s biggest buyer, according to Daniel Hynes, a director of commodity research at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney.
Projects Delayed

The scarcity is hampering India’s ability to fuel power generation and steel-making capacity. Companies have already delayed a total of $36 billion of power-plant projects planned for the next five years, according to the Association of Power Producers. It blames a lack of coal from state-owned Coal India Ltd., which accounts for more than 80 percent of India’s output of the fuel, and higher prices of imported coal.

At risk is India’s economic growth, which already trails that of China. Singh wants to accelerate economic output, most recently at a three-year low of 6.9 percent, to an average 9 percent annually in the next five years. Meeting that target is unlikely, the Asian Development Bank said in an April report, citing in part “bottlenecks relating to fuel and power shortages.”

The shortages exist even though privately owned Indian companies, unencumbered by the need for state approvals, have been snapping up coal assets. In September, GVK Group, controlled by billionaire GV Krishna Reddy, agreed to pay $1.2 billion to acquire coal projects from Australia’s Hancock Prospecting Pty.

By contrast, four state-owned companies -- Coal India, NMDC Ltd. (COAL), National Aluminium Co. (NACL) and Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL) - - can point to only one purchase among them: A $20 million deal by NMDC, India’s largest iron ore producer, in December to buy a 50 percent stake in Australia’s Legacy Iron Ore Ltd., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Late Approval

More typical is NMDC’s failure in 2011 to purchase a Siberian coal deposit from Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov -- a deal that would have added 363 million metric tons of reserves. The company got beat out partly because government approval took a year, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Energy trader Gunvor Group Ltd., based in Cyprus, and Volga Resources of Luxembourg won the deal.

Coal India, 90 percent owned by the government, last year entered talks to buy a 30 percent stake in PT Golden Energy Mines from Indonesia’s Sinar Mas Group. The government gave approval for the deal in October -- two months after privately owned Indian rival GMR Energy Ltd. had agreed to buy the asset, said former Coal India Chairman Nirmal Chandra Jha, who retired in January.
$19 Billion Cash

Money isn’t the issue. The four state-owned companies hold a combined $19 billion of cash and equivalents. Instead, executives at state-owned companies are reluctant to push ahead with acquisitions abroad because they fear getting penalized by the government should deals go wrong, said Rana Som, who retired as chairman of NMDC (NMDC) in December, in an April 2 telephone interview from New Delhi.

“In my opinion, the problems in acquisitions of overseas assets are not external, but internal,” Som said. “There is a lack of courage and conviction on the part of decision makers to go ahead.”

Officials at Coal India, Steel Authority, NMDC and National Aluminum either declined to comment or didn’t respond to calls and e-mails. Requests for comment from India’s finance ministry went unanswered.
‘Policy Paralysis’

India has taken steps to speed up deals, prodded by the country’s industrialists, including Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata, who met with Singh in January. State-run companies were granted greater powers to acquire coal, oil and other mineral assets without first consulting the government.

“Availability of raw material is a prerequisite not only for the growth of the manufacturing sector, but for the economy as a whole,” Information and Broadcasting Minister Ambika Soni said, citing a decision taken by the Cabinet of Ministers in October.

The easing was the latest twist in India’s official policy. In March 2010 the government said it was considering raising a sovereign wealth fund to help state companies compete for overseas energy assets. The fund has yet to be created. In December 2010, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal said buying coal mines was a “top priority,” later traveling to Europe to seek coal assets and mining technology. Then in September last year, Jaiswal changed course and said Coal India, the world’s largest producer of the commodity, should focus on boosting domestic production rather than on overseas purchases.

“There has been a policy paralysis in the government in the past six to eight months,” said Krishna of PwC. “It’s the heavy-footedness by the Indian government that caused some of these challenges.”
®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

India’s Quest for Coal Stalls as Red Tape Kills Mining Takeovers By Editors: Larry Reibstein - May 3, 2012

India’s quest for natural resources to power its growing economy and compete with China has met the enemy: Its own red tape.

Thwarted by lengthy bureaucratic delays for approvals, Indian state companies have lost out on or walked away from at least seven purchases of overseas coal and mining assets in the last two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They have completed just a single overseas deal between them in that time.

In one would-be deal, International Coal Ventures Ltd., a venture of state-owned companies, had to run a gauntlet of seven ministries and a committee, called the Empowered Committee of Secretaries, to seek approval to buy a coal mine in Australia, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The company is still awaiting a sign-off after four months, as the overseeing committee hasn’t met for three months to discuss the $300 million deal. The delay has cost International Coal its status as exclusive bidder for the mine, owned by Aquila Resources Ltd., said one of the people.

“We have found ourselves struggling in the global arena,” said Sanjeev Krishna, an executive director at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in Mumbai who focuses on mergers and private equity. State-controlled companies “have suffered as a result of not having the independence to make these acquisitions.”
Trailing China

The balky approval process highlights the challenge facing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as he jostles with China for resources needed to reduce India’s reliance on imported coal, copper and other raw materials. Chinese companies have completed $21 billion of overseas acquisitions of coal and mining assets in the past two years, more than four times the value of India’s deals, including private purchases, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

India’s domestic coal production, which fires more than half of its power generation, is falling behind demand. In five years, the country will need 981 million metric tons annually compared with output of 715 million tons, the government estimates. Environmental restrictions and approval delays have stymied efforts to expand production.

To offset the gap this year, India may import more than 118 million tons of coal, a volume that would see it overtake China as the world’s biggest buyer, according to Daniel Hynes, a director of commodity research at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney.
Projects Delayed

The scarcity is hampering India’s ability to fuel power generation and steel-making capacity. Companies have already delayed a total of $36 billion of power-plant projects planned for the next five years, according to the Association of Power Producers. It blames a lack of coal from state-owned Coal India Ltd., which accounts for more than 80 percent of India’s output of the fuel, and higher prices of imported coal.

At risk is India’s economic growth, which already trails that of China. Singh wants to accelerate economic output, most recently at a three-year low of 6.9 percent, to an average 9 percent annually in the next five years. Meeting that target is unlikely, the Asian Development Bank said in an April report, citing in part “bottlenecks relating to fuel and power shortages.”

The shortages exist even though privately owned Indian companies, unencumbered by the need for state approvals, have been snapping up coal assets. In September, GVK Group, controlled by billionaire GV Krishna Reddy, agreed to pay $1.2 billion to acquire coal projects from Australia’s Hancock Prospecting Pty.

By contrast, four state-owned companies -- Coal India, NMDC Ltd. (COAL), National Aluminium Co. (NACL) and Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL) - - can point to only one purchase among them: A $20 million deal by NMDC, India’s largest iron ore producer, in December to buy a 50 percent stake in Australia’s Legacy Iron Ore Ltd., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Late Approval

More typical is NMDC’s failure in 2011 to purchase a Siberian coal deposit from Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov -- a deal that would have added 363 million metric tons of reserves. The company got beat out partly because government approval took a year, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Energy trader Gunvor Group Ltd., based in Cyprus, and Volga Resources of Luxembourg won the deal.

Coal India, 90 percent owned by the government, last year entered talks to buy a 30 percent stake in PT Golden Energy Mines from Indonesia’s Sinar Mas Group. The government gave approval for the deal in October -- two months after privately owned Indian rival GMR Energy Ltd. had agreed to buy the asset, said former Coal India Chairman Nirmal Chandra Jha, who retired in January.
$19 Billion Cash

Money isn’t the issue. The four state-owned companies hold a combined $19 billion of cash and equivalents. Instead, executives at state-owned companies are reluctant to push ahead with acquisitions abroad because they fear getting penalized by the government should deals go wrong, said Rana Som, who retired as chairman of NMDC (NMDC) in December, in an April 2 telephone interview from New Delhi.

“In my opinion, the problems in acquisitions of overseas assets are not external, but internal,” Som said. “There is a lack of courage and conviction on the part of decision makers to go ahead.”

Officials at Coal India, Steel Authority, NMDC and National Aluminum either declined to comment or didn’t respond to calls and e-mails. Requests for comment from India’s finance ministry went unanswered.
‘Policy Paralysis’

India has taken steps to speed up deals, prodded by the country’s industrialists, including Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata, who met with Singh in January. State-run companies were granted greater powers to acquire coal, oil and other mineral assets without first consulting the government.

“Availability of raw material is a prerequisite not only for the growth of the manufacturing sector, but for the economy as a whole,” Information and Broadcasting Minister Ambika Soni said, citing a decision taken by the Cabinet of Ministers in October.

The easing was the latest twist in India’s official policy. In March 2010 the government said it was considering raising a sovereign wealth fund to help state companies compete for overseas energy assets. The fund has yet to be created. In December 2010, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal said buying coal mines was a “top priority,” later traveling to Europe to seek coal assets and mining technology. Then in September last year, Jaiswal changed course and said Coal India, the world’s largest producer of the commodity, should focus on boosting domestic production rather than on overseas purchases.

“There has been a policy paralysis in the government in the past six to eight months,” said Krishna of PwC. “It’s the heavy-footedness by the Indian government that caused some of these challenges.”
®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Foreigners Sell Indian Equities in April as Tax Concerns Weigh By Shikhar Balwani - May 2, 2012

Foreign funds turned net sellers of Indian stocks in April, the first month of withdrawals in 2012, deterred by proposed changes in tax rules in the fourth-largest equity market in Asia outside Japan.

Offshore investors sold a net $102.6 million of local equities last month, data compiled by the market regulator yesterday showed. Funds, who were net buyers in each of the previous three months, have invested a net $8.76 billion into Indian shares this year.

“Long-term investors into India aren’t increasing their exposure as the horizon isn’t clear,” A.S. Thiyaga Rajan, a senior managing director at Aquarius Investment Advisors Pte. in Singapore, which has been investing in India since 1995 and has about $400 million in Indian assets, wrote in an e-mail. “First, there is uncertainty on tax. Second is the continuing depreciation of the rupee given weak economic fundamentals.”

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee proposed in March to introduce the General Anti-Avoidance Rule, or GAAR, to curb evasion of taxes by companies through misuse of tax treaties with other countries. Foreign funds are concerned the new rule may apply to their holdings of domestic shares, prompting U.S. trade and lobby groups to raise the matter in an April 17 letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who discussed the plans last month with Mukherjee.

India’s $1.2 trillion market is influenced by flows from overseas. The BSE India Sensitive Index (SENSEX) was the best performer among the world’s top 10 markets in 2010 when the nation took in a record $29.4 billion. The gauge sank 52 percent in 2008, its biggest annual slump, when withdrawals reached an all-time high. Flows into Indian equities this year are the highest in Asia outside of Japan after South Korea, which received a net $9.54 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
‘Needs to be Competitive’

“India, with its current-account deficit, needs to be competitive when attracting global capital,” Adrian Mowat, the chief Asia and emerging-market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who has been investing in India since 1993, said by e-mail. “The country is unique in charging capital-gains tax to foreign institutional investors.”

India’s $1.7 trillion economy slowed for four consecutive quarters through December. Gross domestic product probably grew 6.9 percent in the year ended March, the least in three years, according to government estimates. The slowdown has sapped tax revenue even as subsidies spur spending, leaving India with the widest budget gap among the so-called BRIC group of biggest emerging markets that also includes Brazil, Russia and China.
‘Level-Playing Field’

The rupee weakened to a four-month low of 52.955 per dollar yesterday. The current-account deficit was $19.6 billion in the three months through December, the worst quarterly performance on record. Mukherjee in his budget speech on March 16 estimated the fiscal deficit at 5.9 percent of GDP in the year ended March 31 and sought to reduce the gap to 5.1 percent this financial year by raising taxes and proposing to cap a subsidy program.

“GAAR would help government revenues, but would do more harm in the medium term,” Adrian Lim, a Singapore-based senior investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, said in an interview with Bloomberg UTV on April 30. “Foreign investors want a predictable, level-playing field.”

The proposed changes to tax rules, which will be discussed by lawmakers in the current parliamentary session, followed a ruling in January by India’s Supreme Court that Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) doesn’t have to pay $2.2 billion in tax on its purchase, conducted offshore, of the Indian business of Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. in 2007.

Vodafone, the biggest cell-phone company, has threatened to pursue international arbitration should India proceed with the plans. The operator’s Dutch unit served a notice of dispute to the government on April 17, invoking an investment treaty between India and the Netherlands.
Participatory Notes

The proposed tax provisions won’t apply to holders of participatory notes, or derivatives held overseas, Mukherjee said in March. Investments through the notes were 15 percent of 11.07 trillion rupees that foreigners had in stocks, bonds and derivatives at the end of March, data from the regulator show.

Participatory notes allow foreigners not registered in the country to invest in the stock market.

Macquarie’s Asia hedge fund has exited its short positions in Indian single-stock futures in response to the proposed tax rules, Reuters reported on April 23, citing a letter to clients from Nick Bird, the fund’s portfolio manager. The fund could become liable for tax on unrealized gains after April 1, while open positions in single-stock futures might also be liable, Bird told clients, according to the report.
‘Earnings Magnet’

The Sensex has risen 12 percent this year as foreign funds bought local stocks on optimism the central bank would reduce interest rates after record increases in funding costs eroded corporate profits. Earnings for four, or 33 percent, of the 12 Sensex companies that have posted results for the three months ended March 31, have missed analysts’ estimates. In comparison, 47 percent of the 30 Sensex companies lagged behind forecasts in the December quarter.

“Earnings seem to have bottomed and should recover from here on and that will be the magnet that will bring back flows irrespective of how the tax issue evolves,” Arjuna Mahendran, the Singapore-based head of Asia investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank, told Bloomberg UTV yesterday. “India offers global investors superior rates of growth. I can’t see large institutional investors, including us, departing because of this,” he said, referring to the proposed changes in tax rules.

The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. index of Indian American depositary receipts slipped 1.1 percent to 1,010.63 by 2:11 p.m. in New York, poised for the biggest one-day drop since April 23.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shikhar Balwani in Mumbai at sbalwani@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Darren Boey at dboey@bloomberg.net
®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Hindustan Unilever Net Beats Estimates on Soaps, Shampoos By Malavika Sharma - May 1, 2012

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (HUVR), the Indian unit of the world’s second-largest consumer goods company, reported profit rose 21 percent and exceeded analysts’ estimates on higher sales of soaps and personal-care products. Net income rose to 6.87 billion rupees ($130.3 million) in the quarter ended March 31, from 5.69 billion rupees a year earlier, the Mumbai-based maker of Sunsilk shampoo and Knorr soups said in a statement yesterday. That beat the 6.44 billion- rupee median of 30 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The introduction of high-end products and higher sales of laundry detergents boosted revenue by 16 percent to 56.6 billion rupees. The company wants to boost sales of products such as fabric conditioner and face wash, Chief Executive Officer Nitin Paranjpe said in an interview in February. “Personal products continue to do well, largely driven by volume growth,” said Sameer Narang, an analyst at HDFC Securities Ltd. “In the soaps and detergent business also they have been able to get some volume traction.” Revenue from selling soaps and detergents rose 29 percent to 28.3 billion rupees in the fourth quarter. Sales of personal- care products gained 17 percent to 17.1 billion rupees. Volumes, Prices Higher sales of shampoos such as Sunsilk and skin products such as Ponds boosted the personal-care products’ business, Chief Financial Officer Sridhar Ramamurthy said on a call with reporters. Higher volumes and price increases drove up soaps and detergents revenue, he said. “They’re trying to premiumize their product portfolio,” said Shivani Mehra, an analyst with Techno Shares & Stocks Ltd. “The premiumization would lead to growth, with different product launches.” Parent Unilever on April 26 reported first-quarter revenue growth that beat estimates and outstripped competitors Danone (BN) and Nestle SA (NESN), led by Dove skincare and Tresemme hair products. Underlying sales, which exclude acquisitions, disposals and currency fluctuations, grew 8.4 percent from a year earlier. Hindustan Unilever’s shares were unchanged at 417.60 rupees at the close of trading in Mumbai on April 30. Markets were closed yesterday for a public holiday. The company’s shares have gained 2.5 percent this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Malavika Sharma in New Delhi at msharma52@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Wong at swong139@bloomberg.net ®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Billionaire Mittal Says ‘Not Giving Up’ on Indian Economy By Rakteem Katakey and Anto Antony - Apr 29, 2012

Billionaire Lakshmi N. Mittal, who chose India for his first investment in crude oil processing, said the nation’s economy will continue to expand, unaffected by slowing reforms and delays in government’s decision-making. “The India story is not over,” Mittal, chairman of the world’s biggest steelmaker ArcelorMittal, said in New Delhi yesterday. “Whatever may happen in terms of policies and paralysis, the country will continue to grow.” Mittal, with a net worth of $18.7 billion, said India is on his “priority list” as a rising middle-class population will spur demand while it may take at least five years for Europe to recover from its debt crisis. His optimism on Asia’s third- biggest economy contrasts with Standard & Poor’s, which cut the nation’s sovereign credit outlook last week, citing slowing investments and growth. “I am not giving up,” Mittal said. “There has been some slowdown. But you can’t ignore India.” Economy of the world’s second-most populous country expanded 6.1 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the slowest pace in almost three years, as costlier credit hurt consumer spending and dented investments. India’s central bank cut interest rates on April 17 for the first time since 2009 to help bolster growth. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s administration is facing one of the most challenging periods since taking office in 2004. Rifts in the ruling coalition have hampered efforts to push through various legislation, including a move to allow overseas retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $20 Billion Mittal’s energy unit opened a $4 billion refinery in the Northern Punjab state in a venture with India’s Hindustan Petroleum Corp. (HPCL) on April 28. ArcelorMittal has $20 billion of planned projects in the states of Odisha and Jharkhand. Mittal Energy also has a venture with India’s Oil & Natural Gas Corp., which has offshore oil exploration blocks in Nigeria, according to ONGC’s overseas unit. In the Punjab refinery, run by HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd., the partners own 49 percent each. ArcelorMittal (MT) plans to invest in expanding its existing mining operations and some steel projects in Canada, Liberia and Brazil, Mittal said. Allocation of mining rights in India has to become more transparent, he said. The company has waited for more than six years because of delays in securing approvals and land for its Indian steel projects. Steel consumption in China will increase by 4 percent this year, Mittal said. Demand will rise as much as 8 percent in the U.S. while that in Europe may slow, he said. The European Union “continues to be slow and it’ll probably be 2016-17 for it to emerge at the pre-crisis levels of 2008,” he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at rkatakey@bloomberg.net; Anto Antony in Mumbai at aantony1@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Tighe at ptighe@bloomberg.net ®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.