Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- India’s central bank may debate whether to start raising interest rates today and will probably ask banks to set aside more cash to temper inflation as the second-fastest growing major economy accelerates.
The Reserve Bank of India may raise the cash reserve ratio to 5.5 percent from 5 percent, the first increase since 2008, according to the median forecast of 25 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Seven respondents said the benchmark reverse repurchase rate may rise to 3.5 percent from 3.25 percent, while the rest see no change.
Governor Duvvuri Subbarao’s task is to head off a surge in inflation that would undermine purchasing power in the nation of 1.2 billion people. India is forecast to follow China this month in tightening monetary policy; part of a global withdrawal of stimulus measures that’s led to a decline in stock prices.
“Subbarao has to walk a tightrope,” said Sanjay Mathur, a Singapore-based economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “He has to be careful not to jeopardize India’s nascent growth while attempting to tame inflation.”
The bank is scheduled to release its monetary policy decision at 11:15 a.m. in Mumbai today.
Investors have already begun to anticipate the central bank taking its biggest step yet to rein in monetary stimulus. India’s generic 10-year government bond yields reached 7.71 percent this month, the highest level since November 2008, and closed at 7.56 percent yesterday in Mumbai. The benchmark stock index yesterday reached its lowest level since November, while the rupee has dropped about 2 percent since Jan. 11.
Inflation Concern
Inflation has emerged as a “major concern,” the central bank said in a report yesterday. The bank said economic recovery has coincided with “significant” build-up of price pressures. Subbarao said last week that he wants to support the recovery without “compromising” price stability.
India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation accelerated to 7.3 percent in December, the fastest pace since November 2008. The RBI in October forecast price gains would reach 6.5 percent by March 31. Manufacturing inflation surged to 5.2 percent in December from 1.6 percent in October.
Industrial production rose 11.7 percent in November, the fastest pace in two years, as sales at companies including Hindustan Unilever Ltd. and Hero Honda Motors Ltd. surged.
Corporate Profits
Hindustan Unilever, India’s biggest maker of household products, said this week profit grew in the three months through December for the first time in three quarters. Hero Honda, the nation’s biggest motorcycle maker, reported a better-than- estimated 79 percent increase in third-quarter net income.
“What we’ve seen in India is a fairly strong recovery in domestic demand,” Jorg Decressin, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s monetary and capital markets office, told reporters in Washington this week. “It’s one of the countries where we’re pretty bullish.”
The IMF three days ago boosted its gross domestic product growth projection for India to 7.7 percent from 6.4 percent in October.
China, whose economy expanded the most since 2007 in the fourth quarter, is also acting to rein in price pressures. The People’s Bank of China has ordered some banks to pare lending, raised the ratio for deposits banks must set aside as reserves and guided bill yields higher this month after lending surged in January.
Commercial Loans
India’s credit growth has been more subdued. Commercial loans, which rose 13.7 percent in the two weeks ended Jan. 1 from a year earlier, are growing near the slowest pace in six years.
Most of the nation’s inflation is due to food costs, which shot up after deficient rains last year. They accounted for 80 percent of December’s inflation reading, government data showed.
“Policy makers should avoid any tightening of monetary policy to contain food-price inflation,” said Harsh Pati Singhania, president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry in New Delhi. “It will derail the growth momentum.”
India’s central bank prepares monetary policy in consultation with the finance ministry, which has faced criticism from opposition political parties in the past two months for failing to check surging prices.
Subbarao cut the cash reserve ratio in late 2008 to inject cash into the banking system and protect the Indian economy from the global recession. He has kept the reverse repurchase rate and the repurchase rate at a record low of 3.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively, since April.
Asset Sales
The Indian central bank may also delay raising interest rates to avoid “spooking” the markets before the government’s asset sales program, said Rohini Malkani, a Mumbai-based economist at Citigroup Inc.
The government plans to sell as much as 250 billion rupees ($5.4 billion) of stakes in companies including NMDC Ltd., the nation’s largest iron-ore producer, by the end of March as it tries to trim its budget deficit projected at a 16-year high.
“Monetary tightening will be incremental,” said Sashi Krishnan, chief investment officer at Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Co., India’s second-largest private insurer. “The economy is just returning to growth and the central bank may not want to cap that.” Krishnan expects interest rates to rise as much as 1.25 percentage points in 2010.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Asian Junk Bonds to Beat High-Grade as U.S. Recovers, UBS Says
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy Asian junk bonds as Treasury yields pushed higher by signs the U.S. economy is recovering erode the relative return from investment-grade debt, according to UBS AG.
“I’d pick high-yield over high-grade,” Edwin Chan, UBS’s head of Asian credit research, said in a phone interview from Hong Kong. Junk bonds pay a much bigger margin, so will continue to provide stronger returns regardless of fluctuations in debt sold by the world’s biggest economy, he said.
Two-year Treasury yields rose to their highest in two weeks yesterday and 10-year yields their highest in a week. President Barack Obama, delivering his first State of the Union address, called on Congress to pass tax cuts and spending that would further stimulate the economy and add jobs. Ten-year note yields, currently about 3.67 percent, may rise to 3.9 percent by the end of June, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co.
Signs the global economy is recovering after the worst recession since World War II is spurring demand for riskier assets. The extra return investors demand to own high-yield dollar debt in Asia has dropped 15.04 percentage points to 8.05 percentage points since Jan. 1 last year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data. For Asian high-grade dollar debt it has decreased 4.51 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points.
Credit spreads will tighten further in 2010, especially for high-yield debt, as the economic outlook improves, Chan said. High-yield, or junk, bonds are rated less than Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and below BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.
Junk Sales
Corporate high-yield bond sales in either dollars, euros or yen in Asia outside of Japan total $1.1 billion this month, compared with $6.2 billion for all 2009, Bloomberg data show.
Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. sold $750 million of 13 percent notes on Jan. 22, the biggest Chinese real estate high- yield offering ever, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which helped manage the sale. Evergrande’s bonds were yielding 12.8875 percent yesterday, prices from Calyon show.
It’s been the busiest start to a year in the U.S. in dollar terms for junk bonds in a decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Virgin Media Inc., the U.K.’s second-largest pay- television company, this month helped push offerings of high- yield debt in Europe to a record.
“More supply of high-yield and high-grade bonds is not necessarily a bad thing for credit spreads,” Chan said. “The demand for bonds is still high.”
“I’d pick high-yield over high-grade,” Edwin Chan, UBS’s head of Asian credit research, said in a phone interview from Hong Kong. Junk bonds pay a much bigger margin, so will continue to provide stronger returns regardless of fluctuations in debt sold by the world’s biggest economy, he said.
Two-year Treasury yields rose to their highest in two weeks yesterday and 10-year yields their highest in a week. President Barack Obama, delivering his first State of the Union address, called on Congress to pass tax cuts and spending that would further stimulate the economy and add jobs. Ten-year note yields, currently about 3.67 percent, may rise to 3.9 percent by the end of June, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co.
Signs the global economy is recovering after the worst recession since World War II is spurring demand for riskier assets. The extra return investors demand to own high-yield dollar debt in Asia has dropped 15.04 percentage points to 8.05 percentage points since Jan. 1 last year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data. For Asian high-grade dollar debt it has decreased 4.51 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points.
Credit spreads will tighten further in 2010, especially for high-yield debt, as the economic outlook improves, Chan said. High-yield, or junk, bonds are rated less than Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and below BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.
Junk Sales
Corporate high-yield bond sales in either dollars, euros or yen in Asia outside of Japan total $1.1 billion this month, compared with $6.2 billion for all 2009, Bloomberg data show.
Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. sold $750 million of 13 percent notes on Jan. 22, the biggest Chinese real estate high- yield offering ever, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which helped manage the sale. Evergrande’s bonds were yielding 12.8875 percent yesterday, prices from Calyon show.
It’s been the busiest start to a year in the U.S. in dollar terms for junk bonds in a decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Virgin Media Inc., the U.K.’s second-largest pay- television company, this month helped push offerings of high- yield debt in Europe to a record.
“More supply of high-yield and high-grade bonds is not necessarily a bad thing for credit spreads,” Chan said. “The demand for bonds is still high.”
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Australian Rate Gains Signal Challenge for Retailers
Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Further Australian interest rate gains, which investors expect as early as next week, will prompt consumers to cut spending, the head of Australia’s biggest retailer Woolworths Ltd. said.
“Interest rate rises are not good for consumers full stop,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Luscombe, 56, said in a interview in Sydney yesterday after a report showed consumer prices rose more than some economists forecast. “I think 2010 is going to be a challenging year.”
Luscombe’s comments underscore the downside for retailers of an economic recovery that prompted Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens to raise borrowing costs in December for an unprecedented third month. Concern about inflation, which the central bank aims to keep between 2 percent and 3 percent on average, is increasing pressure on Stevens to keep raising rates.
Woolworths, which benefited early last year as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government distributed more than A$20 billion ($18 billion) in cash to households, yesterday posted the slowest sales growth in a Christmas quarter since 1993. Consumer spending accounts for more than half of Australia’s economy.
“Like all retailers we harbored a secret hope that a miracle might happen and people might find they didn’t spend all their stimulus -- but they clearly had,” Luscombe said.
Woolworths shares fell 2.7 percent to A$26.09 at 1:06 p.m. in Sydney. The S&P/ASX 200 consumer staple index, which tracks retailers in the Australian benchmark, fell 1.6 percent.
Revenue Falls
Revenue at Woolworths’ general merchandise division fell last quarter for the first time in at least seven years as demand slowed at its Big W discount stores and Dick Smith Electronics outlets, the company said yesterday.
Traders are betting there is a 72 percent chance of a quarter-point increase in Australia’s overnight cash rate target to 4 percent at the central bank’s next meeting on Feb. 2, according to Bloomberg calculations based on interbank futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange at 11:13 a.m. Prior to yesterday’s report, the chances of a move were 56 percent.
“Inflation is probably not low enough for the Reserve Bank to pause in February,” said Paul Brennan, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney. “The medium-term inflation outlook will increasingly be shaped by high commodity prices, signs of inflation pick-up in Asia and the recovery in the domestic economy.”
Core Inflation
The central bank’s so-called weighted-median gauge of inflation advanced 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter for an annual increase of 3.6 percent. Economists forecast gains of 0.6 percent and 3.5 percent respectively. The consumer price index rose an annual 2.1 percent.
“Discretionary spending levels will continue to be influenced by macro-economic factors,” Luscombe said.
Policy makers meet next week for the first time since Dec. 1 as signs mount of a recovery in Australia’s economy.
While inflation may “moderate in the near term,” it probably won’t slow “as far as thought likely six months ago,” Governor Stevens said last month, after boosting the benchmark rate to 3.75 percent. The consumer price index “will probably rise somewhat” this year, he said.
Employers added 135,700 jobs in the four months through December, the biggest four-month gain since 2006, pushing down the jobless rate to an eight-month low of 5.5 percent, a report showed Jan. 14. Consumer confidence jumped in January by the most in six months, a survey by Westpac Banking Corp. showed last week.
‘Weather Eye’
The creation of jobs is “one half of the equation, the other half is keeping a very careful weather eye on inflation and making sure our economic policy is balanced,” Rudd told 5AA Radio in Adelaide yesterday. His government is due to face an election this year.
The International Monetary Fund said this week that Australia’s gross domestic product will rise 2.5 percent this year and 3 percent in 2011. In October, it forecast 2 percent growth in 2010.
Stevens’s concern that inflation may strengthen more than forecast last year contrasts with remarks from policy makers in other countries. The European Central Bank, which this month kept its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent, said Jan. 21 that inflation is “expected to remain moderate,” and Federal Reserve officials said last month that inflation will “remain subdued for some time.”
New Zealand central bank Governor Alan Bollard said today the bank will keep its benchmark lending rate at a record-low 2.5 percent until the middle of this year because inflation is likely to remain within its target range until at least 2012.
Australia “is going into an upswing in 2010 from a higher starting point for inflation than you would probably like, and with less spare capacity than previously thought,” said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “It all points to a quarter-percentage point move next week.”
“Interest rate rises are not good for consumers full stop,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Luscombe, 56, said in a interview in Sydney yesterday after a report showed consumer prices rose more than some economists forecast. “I think 2010 is going to be a challenging year.”
Luscombe’s comments underscore the downside for retailers of an economic recovery that prompted Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens to raise borrowing costs in December for an unprecedented third month. Concern about inflation, which the central bank aims to keep between 2 percent and 3 percent on average, is increasing pressure on Stevens to keep raising rates.
Woolworths, which benefited early last year as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government distributed more than A$20 billion ($18 billion) in cash to households, yesterday posted the slowest sales growth in a Christmas quarter since 1993. Consumer spending accounts for more than half of Australia’s economy.
“Like all retailers we harbored a secret hope that a miracle might happen and people might find they didn’t spend all their stimulus -- but they clearly had,” Luscombe said.
Woolworths shares fell 2.7 percent to A$26.09 at 1:06 p.m. in Sydney. The S&P/ASX 200 consumer staple index, which tracks retailers in the Australian benchmark, fell 1.6 percent.
Revenue Falls
Revenue at Woolworths’ general merchandise division fell last quarter for the first time in at least seven years as demand slowed at its Big W discount stores and Dick Smith Electronics outlets, the company said yesterday.
Traders are betting there is a 72 percent chance of a quarter-point increase in Australia’s overnight cash rate target to 4 percent at the central bank’s next meeting on Feb. 2, according to Bloomberg calculations based on interbank futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange at 11:13 a.m. Prior to yesterday’s report, the chances of a move were 56 percent.
“Inflation is probably not low enough for the Reserve Bank to pause in February,” said Paul Brennan, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Sydney. “The medium-term inflation outlook will increasingly be shaped by high commodity prices, signs of inflation pick-up in Asia and the recovery in the domestic economy.”
Core Inflation
The central bank’s so-called weighted-median gauge of inflation advanced 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter for an annual increase of 3.6 percent. Economists forecast gains of 0.6 percent and 3.5 percent respectively. The consumer price index rose an annual 2.1 percent.
“Discretionary spending levels will continue to be influenced by macro-economic factors,” Luscombe said.
Policy makers meet next week for the first time since Dec. 1 as signs mount of a recovery in Australia’s economy.
While inflation may “moderate in the near term,” it probably won’t slow “as far as thought likely six months ago,” Governor Stevens said last month, after boosting the benchmark rate to 3.75 percent. The consumer price index “will probably rise somewhat” this year, he said.
Employers added 135,700 jobs in the four months through December, the biggest four-month gain since 2006, pushing down the jobless rate to an eight-month low of 5.5 percent, a report showed Jan. 14. Consumer confidence jumped in January by the most in six months, a survey by Westpac Banking Corp. showed last week.
‘Weather Eye’
The creation of jobs is “one half of the equation, the other half is keeping a very careful weather eye on inflation and making sure our economic policy is balanced,” Rudd told 5AA Radio in Adelaide yesterday. His government is due to face an election this year.
The International Monetary Fund said this week that Australia’s gross domestic product will rise 2.5 percent this year and 3 percent in 2011. In October, it forecast 2 percent growth in 2010.
Stevens’s concern that inflation may strengthen more than forecast last year contrasts with remarks from policy makers in other countries. The European Central Bank, which this month kept its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent, said Jan. 21 that inflation is “expected to remain moderate,” and Federal Reserve officials said last month that inflation will “remain subdued for some time.”
New Zealand central bank Governor Alan Bollard said today the bank will keep its benchmark lending rate at a record-low 2.5 percent until the middle of this year because inflation is likely to remain within its target range until at least 2012.
Australia “is going into an upswing in 2010 from a higher starting point for inflation than you would probably like, and with less spare capacity than previously thought,” said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “It all points to a quarter-percentage point move next week.”
Satyam’s Raju Earns Pauper Status in U.S. Investor Litigation
Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Ramalinga Raju, who resigned as chairman of Satyam Computer Services Ltd. after saying he overstated the company’s assets by $1 billion, was granted pauper status in U.S. litigation brought by investors.
U.S. District Judge Barbara Jones in New York approved the status for Raju; his brother Rama Raju, Satyam’s former chief executive officer; and Srinivas Vadlamani, the company’s ex- finance chief. Proceeding “in forma pauperis” means the three men won’t have to pay filing fees and other court costs tied to the litigation because of their financial condition.
“The court finds that defendants have adequately demonstrated that they are unable to pay,” Jones wrote in a Jan. 26 order.
The three men have also been charged criminally and have been in custody in India since last January. Shares and American depositary receipts of the software-services provider based in Hyderabad, India, have plunged since Jan. 7, 2009, when Raju wrote a letter to the board explaining the financial irregularities. His letter touched off India’s biggest corporate-fraud inquiry.
In November, India’s Central Bureau of Investigation said it found $607 million of additional fraud at the company. Investors in the U.S. suits, who say Raju’s confession wiped out $4 billion in market capitalization, filed at least a dozen class-action lawsuits that have been consolidated before Jones.
Ramalinga Raju, 55, Rama Raju, 50, and Vadlamani, 49, also asked Jones to appoint lawyers for them that they wouldn’t have to pay.
Lawyer Request Denied
She denied that request “at the present time,” finding that, because of their incarceration in India, “it would be unusually difficult for appointed counsel to meet with and otherwise competently represent defendants under the circumstances.”
The judge said they could renew the request later.
Keith Fleischman, a lawyer for the investors at Grant & Eisenhofer PA in New York, declined to comment on Jones’s rulings.
After Raju’s disclosures, India’s government fired the Satyam board and appointed new directors. Tech Mahindra Ltd., the Pune, India-based software company, gained control of Satyam in May.
American depositary receipts are issued by U.S. banks to allow investment in non-U.S. companies. Satyam raised $161.9 million from the May 2001 sale of its ADRs.
Satyam ADRs, each representing two ordinary shares, fell 17 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $4.85 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The ADRs have risen 5.2 percent this year.
The case is In re Satyam Computer Services Ltd. Securities Litigation, 09-md-02027, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
U.S. District Judge Barbara Jones in New York approved the status for Raju; his brother Rama Raju, Satyam’s former chief executive officer; and Srinivas Vadlamani, the company’s ex- finance chief. Proceeding “in forma pauperis” means the three men won’t have to pay filing fees and other court costs tied to the litigation because of their financial condition.
“The court finds that defendants have adequately demonstrated that they are unable to pay,” Jones wrote in a Jan. 26 order.
The three men have also been charged criminally and have been in custody in India since last January. Shares and American depositary receipts of the software-services provider based in Hyderabad, India, have plunged since Jan. 7, 2009, when Raju wrote a letter to the board explaining the financial irregularities. His letter touched off India’s biggest corporate-fraud inquiry.
In November, India’s Central Bureau of Investigation said it found $607 million of additional fraud at the company. Investors in the U.S. suits, who say Raju’s confession wiped out $4 billion in market capitalization, filed at least a dozen class-action lawsuits that have been consolidated before Jones.
Ramalinga Raju, 55, Rama Raju, 50, and Vadlamani, 49, also asked Jones to appoint lawyers for them that they wouldn’t have to pay.
Lawyer Request Denied
She denied that request “at the present time,” finding that, because of their incarceration in India, “it would be unusually difficult for appointed counsel to meet with and otherwise competently represent defendants under the circumstances.”
The judge said they could renew the request later.
Keith Fleischman, a lawyer for the investors at Grant & Eisenhofer PA in New York, declined to comment on Jones’s rulings.
After Raju’s disclosures, India’s government fired the Satyam board and appointed new directors. Tech Mahindra Ltd., the Pune, India-based software company, gained control of Satyam in May.
American depositary receipts are issued by U.S. banks to allow investment in non-U.S. companies. Satyam raised $161.9 million from the May 2001 sale of its ADRs.
Satyam ADRs, each representing two ordinary shares, fell 17 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $4.85 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The ADRs have risen 5.2 percent this year.
The case is In re Satyam Computer Services Ltd. Securities Litigation, 09-md-02027, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
BHP, Rio Set to ‘Bounce Back’ to Record Profits on Recovery
Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s biggest and third-largest mining companies, are set to return to record profits faster than estimated because of a quicker rebound in the global economy.
Brokers have increased London-based Rio’s 2010 earnings estimates and Melbourne-based BHP’s fiscal 2011 predictions by more than $1 billion in the past four weeks, according to Bloomberg data. Rio’s shares may gain 14 percent in the next 12 months and BHP’s almost 10 percent, according to the data.
The World Bank has raised its forecast for global growth in 2010 as the economy in China, the world’s biggest consumer of metals, expands at the fastest rate in three years. UBS AG and Citigroup Inc. are among brokers who’ve boosted profit estimates for BHP and Rio after they reported record iron ore output.
This year “is just about in the bag in terms of earnings,” said Ken West, who helps manage in Melbourne the equivalent of $1.9 billion at Perennial Investment Partners Ltd., including Rio and BHP shares. There’s no reason why profit at BHP and Rio shouldn’t be “bouncing back to those pre-global financial crisis earnings levels,” he said.
BHP declined 1 percent and Rio fell 1.1 percent in London trading yesterday. BHP spokeswoman Kelly Quirke and Rio spokesman Tony Shaffer declined to comment.
Rio may have net income of $9.3 billion in 2010, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would beat its record in 2006 of $7.4 billion. BHP may report profit of $16 billion in fiscal 2011, according to 13 analyst estimates, beating 2008’s record $15.4 billion. BHP reports earnings on Feb. 10 and Rio on Feb. 11.
‘Picking Up’
Mining company profits plunged after the global financial crisis struck in 2008. Now, Rio, BHP and South Korea’s Posco, Asia’s most profitable steelmaker, are raising production as demand from carmakers and builders rebounds.
Alcoa Inc. the largest U.S. aluminum maker, expects earnings to improve this year and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, posted fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates.
“We are hearing from not just Rio but other companies, demand is picking up,” Glyn Lawcock, managing director of resources research at UBS AG in Sydney, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV after Rio’s production report Jan. 14. He’s forecasting a 10 to 15 percent gain in Rio’s stock this year.
BHP may report profit of $18 billion in fiscal 2011, according to UBS. BHP reported second-quarter output Jan. 20.
‘Volatile Year’
To be sure, the World Bank said the global recovery may lose momentum in the second half of the year as stimulus programs wind down and unemployment persists. Stocks fell in Asia and Europe last week after Chinese regulators told some of the nation’s banks to limit lending. Asian stocks had the biggest weekly drop since March on concern the pace of economic growth will prompt central banks from China to India to curb price increases. Australian mining stocks fell amid concern the nation may raise taxes on mining projects.
“We expect another volatile year in 2010 as the removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the U.S., Europe and Asia is likely to be accompanied by a period of relatively weak growth,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts led by Paul Young said in a report this month.
Steel output in China, the largest maker, rose to a record last year as government stimulus spending boosted demand from builders and automakers. Copper production also rose to a record. A stimulus-driven rebound is helping boost confidence in the global economy as equity markets rally from last year’s low and industrial production rises worldwide.
‘Faster Turnaround’
“Throughout 2009, China has surprised on the upside every reporting period,” said Grant Craighead, managing director of Sydney-based Stock Resource. “Whatever the consensus view was amongst economists China always came in a bit stronger.”
There may be a faster turnaround in China as infrastructure spending improves the demand for BHP’s products and drives spot prices higher, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. analysts led by Warren Edney said in a report. Edney is forecasting BHP will report profit of $16.1 billion in the 12 months ending June 30, 2011.
The global steel market will grow by 9.2 percent in 2010 on rising demand from the U.S., Japan and Europe, the World Steel Association has said. Domestic demand will continue to grow driven by housing, automakers, shipbuilding and machinery, the China Iron & Steel Association said Jan. 22.
Brokers have increased London-based Rio’s 2010 earnings estimates and Melbourne-based BHP’s fiscal 2011 predictions by more than $1 billion in the past four weeks, according to Bloomberg data. Rio’s shares may gain 14 percent in the next 12 months and BHP’s almost 10 percent, according to the data.
The World Bank has raised its forecast for global growth in 2010 as the economy in China, the world’s biggest consumer of metals, expands at the fastest rate in three years. UBS AG and Citigroup Inc. are among brokers who’ve boosted profit estimates for BHP and Rio after they reported record iron ore output.
This year “is just about in the bag in terms of earnings,” said Ken West, who helps manage in Melbourne the equivalent of $1.9 billion at Perennial Investment Partners Ltd., including Rio and BHP shares. There’s no reason why profit at BHP and Rio shouldn’t be “bouncing back to those pre-global financial crisis earnings levels,” he said.
BHP declined 1 percent and Rio fell 1.1 percent in London trading yesterday. BHP spokeswoman Kelly Quirke and Rio spokesman Tony Shaffer declined to comment.
Rio may have net income of $9.3 billion in 2010, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would beat its record in 2006 of $7.4 billion. BHP may report profit of $16 billion in fiscal 2011, according to 13 analyst estimates, beating 2008’s record $15.4 billion. BHP reports earnings on Feb. 10 and Rio on Feb. 11.
‘Picking Up’
Mining company profits plunged after the global financial crisis struck in 2008. Now, Rio, BHP and South Korea’s Posco, Asia’s most profitable steelmaker, are raising production as demand from carmakers and builders rebounds.
Alcoa Inc. the largest U.S. aluminum maker, expects earnings to improve this year and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, posted fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates.
“We are hearing from not just Rio but other companies, demand is picking up,” Glyn Lawcock, managing director of resources research at UBS AG in Sydney, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV after Rio’s production report Jan. 14. He’s forecasting a 10 to 15 percent gain in Rio’s stock this year.
BHP may report profit of $18 billion in fiscal 2011, according to UBS. BHP reported second-quarter output Jan. 20.
‘Volatile Year’
To be sure, the World Bank said the global recovery may lose momentum in the second half of the year as stimulus programs wind down and unemployment persists. Stocks fell in Asia and Europe last week after Chinese regulators told some of the nation’s banks to limit lending. Asian stocks had the biggest weekly drop since March on concern the pace of economic growth will prompt central banks from China to India to curb price increases. Australian mining stocks fell amid concern the nation may raise taxes on mining projects.
“We expect another volatile year in 2010 as the removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the U.S., Europe and Asia is likely to be accompanied by a period of relatively weak growth,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts led by Paul Young said in a report this month.
Steel output in China, the largest maker, rose to a record last year as government stimulus spending boosted demand from builders and automakers. Copper production also rose to a record. A stimulus-driven rebound is helping boost confidence in the global economy as equity markets rally from last year’s low and industrial production rises worldwide.
‘Faster Turnaround’
“Throughout 2009, China has surprised on the upside every reporting period,” said Grant Craighead, managing director of Sydney-based Stock Resource. “Whatever the consensus view was amongst economists China always came in a bit stronger.”
There may be a faster turnaround in China as infrastructure spending improves the demand for BHP’s products and drives spot prices higher, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. analysts led by Warren Edney said in a report. Edney is forecasting BHP will report profit of $16.1 billion in the 12 months ending June 30, 2011.
The global steel market will grow by 9.2 percent in 2010 on rising demand from the U.S., Japan and Europe, the World Steel Association has said. Domestic demand will continue to grow driven by housing, automakers, shipbuilding and machinery, the China Iron & Steel Association said Jan. 22.
Australian Economic Recovery to Strengthen in 2010, Access Says
Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s economic recovery will accelerate this year and next, helped by China’s demand for raw materials including iron ore and a rebound in consumer confidence, Access Economics says.
Gross domestic product will rise 2.5 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2011, after gaining 0.9 percent last year, the research company said in a report released in Canberra today.
The nation’s economy was one of the few to skirt the global recession in 2009, as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government distributed A$20 billion ($18 billion) in cash to households and Asian demand for exports rebounded. Signs that the economy will strengthen further this year prompted central bank policy makers to raise borrowing costs last month by a quarter-percentage point to 3.75 percent, the third move in as many months.
“Recovery should continue through 2010 and 2011,” Access said in the report. While government spending will slow and consumers may be hurt by higher borrowing costs, housing construction will “lift notably” amid a surge in population growth.
By 2011, engineering construction will also add to growth, it said.
Gross domestic product will rise 2.5 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2011, after gaining 0.9 percent last year, the research company said in a report released in Canberra today.
The nation’s economy was one of the few to skirt the global recession in 2009, as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government distributed A$20 billion ($18 billion) in cash to households and Asian demand for exports rebounded. Signs that the economy will strengthen further this year prompted central bank policy makers to raise borrowing costs last month by a quarter-percentage point to 3.75 percent, the third move in as many months.
“Recovery should continue through 2010 and 2011,” Access said in the report. While government spending will slow and consumers may be hurt by higher borrowing costs, housing construction will “lift notably” amid a surge in population growth.
By 2011, engineering construction will also add to growth, it said.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
New Zealand May Lag Behind Australia in Raising Interest Rates
Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand may lag behind Australia in raising interest rates this quarter as its economic recovery trails its larger neighbor and inflation remains within central bank Governor Alan Bollard’s target range.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave the official cash rate at a record-low 2.5 percent in its decision at 9 a.m. in Wellington on Jan. 28, according to all 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Australia’s currency has outperformed New Zealand’s as traders bet Governor Glenn Stevens will boost his rate by a quarter percentage point to 4 percent next week.
Bollard is seeking to strengthen an economy emerging from its worst recession in three decades, while Australia skirted the global slump and is forecast to record faster growth this year as demand for exports such as iron ore increases.
“Inflation is moderate for now and the Reserve Bank still has some time on its side,” said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank Ltd. in Auckland. “There is nothing to prod the bank to move as early as January or March.”
Bollard, who has kept the cash rate at 2.5 percent since April last year, said Dec. 10 that conditions may support higher borrowing costs from the middle of 2010.
He said he wants to be sure that domestic demand will remain “solid” as Prime Minister John Key’s government withdraws fiscal stimulus measures, including extra spending on infrastructure, implemented to boost the economy.
Just two economists expect a rate increase in March, with 12 forecasting a move in April or June.
‘Imprudent’ Level
“It will be imprudent to leave monetary policy settings at exceptionally low levels for too much longer,” said Tuffley, who expects a half-point increase on April 29.
Economists forecast the cash rate will be 4 percent by the end of the year, according to the survey. Traders are betting rates will rise to 4.25 percent over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse index based on swaps trading.
New Zealand’s dollar rose to an eight-week high of 74.42 U.S. cents on Jan. 15 amid speculation Bollard may raise rates as early as March. It fell to 71.3 cents late in Wellington on Jan. 22 as expectations waned. The currency has declined 2.1 percent this year against the U.S. dollar compared with a 0.3 percent gain in the Australian currency.
Central bankers around the world are assessing when to remove stimulus measures as the global economy recovers. Australia and Norway are among countries that have started raising rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve has committed to scale down buying of mortgage-backed debt.
Australian Rates
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens is forecast to boost his benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 4 percent next week, adding to similar moves in October, November and December, according to 16 of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
New Zealand consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a government report on Jan. 20. Annual inflation was 2 percent, in the middle of the 1 percent-to-3 percent band that Bollard targets. Last month, the governor forecast inflation will be 2 percent or less until early 2011.
The housing market slowed in December, easing pressure on prices, according to a Real Estate Institute report last week. House prices fell for the first time in six months as the number of properties sold declined for a third month.
“The stabilization in prices should ease concerns about a possible renewed bubble in house prices and consequent impacts on domestic demand,” said Darren Gibbs, chief New Zealand economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland.
Inflationary Expectations
Bollard expects the pace of inflation will accelerate to 2.6 percent by the end of 2011 as the economy expands. Gross domestic product will increase 3 percent this year and 4.1 percent in 2011, he forecast Dec. 10.
Manufacturing grew in December for a fourth month, buoyed by new orders, according to an index published Jan. 21 by Business New Zealand and Bank of New Zealand Ltd.
Retail sales also rose for a fourth month in November, according to a government report last week. Consumer confidence surged to a three-year high in December, according to an ANZ National Bank-Roy Morgan Research index released Jan. 21.
Companies are more likely to hire workers and to invest in the coming months, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research said Jan. 12. Its survey, conducted in early December, also showed that companies have less spare capacity, meaning they will have to raise prices as they increase production.
Bollard “was looking for spare capacity built up during the recession to damp inflationary pressures,” said Michael Gordon, an economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. “Inflation pressure could be building again.”
The central bank can wait until a review on April 29 before raising rates, allowing Bollard to assess data on how the economy ended 2009 and how inflation tracked in the first three months of this year, said Gordon.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave the official cash rate at a record-low 2.5 percent in its decision at 9 a.m. in Wellington on Jan. 28, according to all 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Australia’s currency has outperformed New Zealand’s as traders bet Governor Glenn Stevens will boost his rate by a quarter percentage point to 4 percent next week.
Bollard is seeking to strengthen an economy emerging from its worst recession in three decades, while Australia skirted the global slump and is forecast to record faster growth this year as demand for exports such as iron ore increases.
“Inflation is moderate for now and the Reserve Bank still has some time on its side,” said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank Ltd. in Auckland. “There is nothing to prod the bank to move as early as January or March.”
Bollard, who has kept the cash rate at 2.5 percent since April last year, said Dec. 10 that conditions may support higher borrowing costs from the middle of 2010.
He said he wants to be sure that domestic demand will remain “solid” as Prime Minister John Key’s government withdraws fiscal stimulus measures, including extra spending on infrastructure, implemented to boost the economy.
Just two economists expect a rate increase in March, with 12 forecasting a move in April or June.
‘Imprudent’ Level
“It will be imprudent to leave monetary policy settings at exceptionally low levels for too much longer,” said Tuffley, who expects a half-point increase on April 29.
Economists forecast the cash rate will be 4 percent by the end of the year, according to the survey. Traders are betting rates will rise to 4.25 percent over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse index based on swaps trading.
New Zealand’s dollar rose to an eight-week high of 74.42 U.S. cents on Jan. 15 amid speculation Bollard may raise rates as early as March. It fell to 71.3 cents late in Wellington on Jan. 22 as expectations waned. The currency has declined 2.1 percent this year against the U.S. dollar compared with a 0.3 percent gain in the Australian currency.
Central bankers around the world are assessing when to remove stimulus measures as the global economy recovers. Australia and Norway are among countries that have started raising rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve has committed to scale down buying of mortgage-backed debt.
Australian Rates
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens is forecast to boost his benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 4 percent next week, adding to similar moves in October, November and December, according to 16 of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
New Zealand consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, according to a government report on Jan. 20. Annual inflation was 2 percent, in the middle of the 1 percent-to-3 percent band that Bollard targets. Last month, the governor forecast inflation will be 2 percent or less until early 2011.
The housing market slowed in December, easing pressure on prices, according to a Real Estate Institute report last week. House prices fell for the first time in six months as the number of properties sold declined for a third month.
“The stabilization in prices should ease concerns about a possible renewed bubble in house prices and consequent impacts on domestic demand,” said Darren Gibbs, chief New Zealand economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Auckland.
Inflationary Expectations
Bollard expects the pace of inflation will accelerate to 2.6 percent by the end of 2011 as the economy expands. Gross domestic product will increase 3 percent this year and 4.1 percent in 2011, he forecast Dec. 10.
Manufacturing grew in December for a fourth month, buoyed by new orders, according to an index published Jan. 21 by Business New Zealand and Bank of New Zealand Ltd.
Retail sales also rose for a fourth month in November, according to a government report last week. Consumer confidence surged to a three-year high in December, according to an ANZ National Bank-Roy Morgan Research index released Jan. 21.
Companies are more likely to hire workers and to invest in the coming months, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research said Jan. 12. Its survey, conducted in early December, also showed that companies have less spare capacity, meaning they will have to raise prices as they increase production.
Bollard “was looking for spare capacity built up during the recession to damp inflationary pressures,” said Michael Gordon, an economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. “Inflation pressure could be building again.”
The central bank can wait until a review on April 29 before raising rates, allowing Bollard to assess data on how the economy ended 2009 and how inflation tracked in the first three months of this year, said Gordon.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
