BOSTON — Scott Brown, a little-known Republican state senator, rode an old pickup truck and a growing sense of unease among independent voters to an extraordinary upset Tuesday night when he was elected to fill the Senate seat that was long held by Edward M. Kennedy in the overwhelmingly Democratic state of Massachusetts.
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Supporters in Boston celebrated the victory of Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown in his bid for U.S. Senate. More Photos »
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Mr. Brown spoke to reporters after voting in the special election on Tuesday in Wrentham, Mass. More Photos >
By a decisive margin, Mr. Brown defeated Martha Coakley, the state’s attorney general, who had been considered a prohibitive favorite to win just over a month ago after she easily won the Democratic primary.
With 93 percent of the vote counted, Mr. Brown had 52 percent of the vote to Ms. Coakley’s 47 percent.
In her concession speech before cheering supporters, Ms. Coakley acknowledged that voters were angry and said she had hoped to deal with the concerns.
“Our mission continues, and our work goes on,” she said, echoing well-known remarks by Mr. Kennedy. “I am heartbroken at the result, as I know you are, and I know we will get up together tomorrow and continue this fight, even with this result tonight.”
The election left Democrats in Congress scrambling to salvage a bill overhauling the nation’s health care system, which the late Mr. Kennedy had called “the cause of my life.” Mr. Brown has vowed to oppose the bill, and once he takes office the Democrats will lose their filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes in the Senate.
Beyond the bill, the election of a man supported by the Tea Party movement also represented an unexpected reproach by many voters to President Obama after his first year in office, and struck fear into the hearts of Democratic lawmakers, who are already worried about their prospects later this year in the midterm elections.
Mr. Brown was able to appeal to independents who were anxious about the economy and concerned about the direction taken by Democrats, now that they control all the branches of government, both on Beacon Hill and in Washington. He rallied his supporters when he said, at the last debate, that he was not running for Mr. Kennedy’s seat but for “the people’s seat.”
That seat, held for nearly half a century by Mr. Kennedy, the liberal lion of the Senate, will now be held by a Republican who has said he supports waterboarding as an interrogation technique for terrorism suspects; opposes a federal cap-and-trade program to reduce carbon emissions; and opposes a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants unless they leave the country. It was a sharp swing of the pendulum, but even Democratic voters said they wanted the Obama administration to change direction.
“I’m hoping that it gives a message to the country,” said Marlene Connolly, 73, of North Andover, a lifelong Democrat who said she cast her first vote for a Republican on Tuesday. “I think if Massachusetts puts Brown in, it’s a message of ‘that’s enough.’ Let’s stop the giveaways and let’s get jobs going.”
Mr. Brown ran strongest in the suburbs of Boston, where the independent voters who make up a majority in Massachusetts turned out in large numbers. Ms. Coakley did best in urban areas, overwhelmingly winning in Boston and running ahead in Springfield, Worcester, Fall River and New Bedford, but her margins were not large enough to carry her to victory.
Ms. Coakley’s defeat, in a state that Mr. Obama won in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote, led to a round of finger-pointing among Democrats. Some criticized her tendency for gaffes — in a radio interview she offended Red Sox fans when she incorrectly suggested that Curt Schilling, a beloved former Red Sox pitcher, was a Yankee fan — while others criticized a lackluster, low-key campaign.
Mr. Brown presented himself as a Massachusetts Everyman, featuring the pickup truck he drives around the state in his speeches and one of his television ads, calling in to talk radio shows, and campaigning with popular local sports figures.
The implications of the election drew nationwide attention, and millions of dollars of outside spending, to the race. It transformed what many had expected to be a sleepy, low-turnout special election on a snowy day in January into a high-profile contest that appeared to draw more voters than expected to the polls. There were reports of traffic jams outside suburban polling stations, while other polling stations had to call for extra ballots.
The late surge by Mr. Brown appeared to catch Democrats by surprise, causing them to scramble in the last week and a half of the campaign and hastily schedule an appearance by Mr. Obama with Ms. Coakley on Sunday afternoon.
“Understand what’s at stake here, Massachusetts,” Mr. Obama said in his speech that day, repeatedly invoking Mr. Kennedy’s legacy. “It’s whether we’re going forwards or backwards.” He all but pleaded with voters to support Ms. Coakley, to preserve his agenda.
As voters went to the polls, Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, made it clear that the president was “not pleased” with the situation Ms. Coakley found herself in. “He was both surprised and frustrated,” Mr. Gibbs said.
Although the race has riveted the attention of the nation largely because it was seen as contributing to the success or defeat of the health care bill, the potency of the issue for voters here was difficult to gauge. That is because Massachusetts already has near-universal health coverage, thanks to a law passed when Mitt Romney, a Republican, was governor.
Thus Massachusetts is one of the few states where the benefits promised by the national bill were expected to have little effect on how many of its citizens got coverage, making it an unlikely place for a referendum on the health care bill.
Although Mr. Brown vowed to scuttle the current bill, he voted for the Massachusetts health care bill, which was a model for it. He argued that the national bill would be costly and result in Medicare cuts for the elderly — in effect that some residents of Massachusetts stood to lose more than they would gain.
The closeness of the race drew both opponents and supporters of health care to the polls.
“I don’t like that the health care bill is being ramrodded through, and I am incensed that a senator was able to have his state exempted from the cost,” said Robert Rivard, 67, a retired mechanical engineer in Leicester who is an independent. “As much as I support Brown, it is also a statement about what I don’t want.”
But Michael Barry, a 23-year-old Democrat from Hopkinton, said that he came to the polls to try to save the health care bill. “I voted for Coakley because I didn’t want to disrupt the 60-40 vote for health care,” said Mr. Barry, a software engineer. “I thought it was a shoo-in a few weeks ago and might not have come out today.”
On Capitol Hill, the fate of the health care legislation was highly uncertain as Democratic leaders quickly gathered to plot strategy in the wake of the Republican victory.
Sentiment about how to proceed was mixed, with several House lawmakers expressing wariness about accepting a Senate-passed plan due to their deep reservations about it. But top officials said that approach may be the party’s best alternative and most House members said they still believed it was crucial that Democrats pass a plan.
“It is important for us to pass legislation,” said Representative Baron Hill, a conservative Democrat from Indiana.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Orbit May Sell Shares to Build $11 Million Apartments in Mumbai
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Orbit Corp., India’s best-performing real estate stock, plans to raise funds from institutions and a buyout firm to build apartments costing as much as $11 million in a nation with Asia’s second-largest number of billionaires.
Orbit may sell as much as 3.5 billion rupees ($76.3 million) of stock to institutions in the first half of the year, Managing Director Pujit Aggarwal said in an interview. The Mumbai-based developer is close to getting 1.75 billion rupees from a private- equity fund to build 200 acres of luxury villas at Mandwa, 33 kilometers (21 miles) from Mumbai along the Arabian Sea, he said.
Demand for luxury apartments is rising as the biggest rally in stocks in 18 years, doubling of copper, sugar and lead prices, and record rice harvests boost the ranks of the affluent in the second-fastest growing economy among the Group of 20 nations. The South Asian nation has 84,000 millionaires, according to the 2009 World Wealth Report by Cap Gemini SA and Merrill Lynch Wealth Management.
“Mumbai is the deepest market, the demand is phenomenal and any money that comes in will be used for further growth,” Aggarwal, 37, said in an interview. “If we can manage funds from internal resources then we may defer such a share sale.”
Orbit’s shares have surged sevenfold in the past 12 months, making it the best-performing stock in the Bombay Stock Exchange Realty Index. They rose 2.1 percent to 331.5 rupees in Mumbai yesterday.
India’s benchmark stock index, the Sensex, gained 81 percent in 2009, while the S&P GSCI Index of 24 raw materials rose 50 percent, the most since at least 1971.
Home to Billionaires
About 40 percent of India’s 52 billionaires live in Mumbai, according to Forbes magazine. The city is home to India’s two main stock exchanges, its biggest trading centre for diamond, bonds, currency, gold and other commodities. It is also the main centre for the world’s most prolific movie-making industry. Two- thirds of Orbit’s properties are in central and south Mumbai.
“Areas such as south Mumbai and south Delhi always command a certain premium,” said Vivek Dahiya, the chief executive of New Delhi-based GenReal property advisory firm. “One always finds buyers here irrespective of the cycles.”
The number of millionaires in India and China are expected to triple between 2008 and 2018, according to the Merrill Lynch and Cap Gemini wealth report.
About half of the 16 million residents of Mumbai, the commercial capital of the world’s second-most populous nation, live in slums. That’s more than the population of Switzerland.
Orbit, which has built 500,000 square feet of space, mainly by tearing down old and dilapidated buildings, is building 3.2 million square feet, Aggarwal said. Orbit will start developing another 3 million square feet over the next four quarters, he said.
“Through the re-development route one can get land for a fraction of the price,” Aggarwal said. “Fresh land in south Mumbai is anyway not available.”
Mumbai has almost 20,000 buildings that are old and crumbling, he said. Developers such as Orbit buy out the residents or offer them alternative homes as per the municipality rules to get the necessary land for luxury homes.
Orbit may sell as much as 3.5 billion rupees ($76.3 million) of stock to institutions in the first half of the year, Managing Director Pujit Aggarwal said in an interview. The Mumbai-based developer is close to getting 1.75 billion rupees from a private- equity fund to build 200 acres of luxury villas at Mandwa, 33 kilometers (21 miles) from Mumbai along the Arabian Sea, he said.
Demand for luxury apartments is rising as the biggest rally in stocks in 18 years, doubling of copper, sugar and lead prices, and record rice harvests boost the ranks of the affluent in the second-fastest growing economy among the Group of 20 nations. The South Asian nation has 84,000 millionaires, according to the 2009 World Wealth Report by Cap Gemini SA and Merrill Lynch Wealth Management.
“Mumbai is the deepest market, the demand is phenomenal and any money that comes in will be used for further growth,” Aggarwal, 37, said in an interview. “If we can manage funds from internal resources then we may defer such a share sale.”
Orbit’s shares have surged sevenfold in the past 12 months, making it the best-performing stock in the Bombay Stock Exchange Realty Index. They rose 2.1 percent to 331.5 rupees in Mumbai yesterday.
India’s benchmark stock index, the Sensex, gained 81 percent in 2009, while the S&P GSCI Index of 24 raw materials rose 50 percent, the most since at least 1971.
Home to Billionaires
About 40 percent of India’s 52 billionaires live in Mumbai, according to Forbes magazine. The city is home to India’s two main stock exchanges, its biggest trading centre for diamond, bonds, currency, gold and other commodities. It is also the main centre for the world’s most prolific movie-making industry. Two- thirds of Orbit’s properties are in central and south Mumbai.
“Areas such as south Mumbai and south Delhi always command a certain premium,” said Vivek Dahiya, the chief executive of New Delhi-based GenReal property advisory firm. “One always finds buyers here irrespective of the cycles.”
The number of millionaires in India and China are expected to triple between 2008 and 2018, according to the Merrill Lynch and Cap Gemini wealth report.
About half of the 16 million residents of Mumbai, the commercial capital of the world’s second-most populous nation, live in slums. That’s more than the population of Switzerland.
Orbit, which has built 500,000 square feet of space, mainly by tearing down old and dilapidated buildings, is building 3.2 million square feet, Aggarwal said. Orbit will start developing another 3 million square feet over the next four quarters, he said.
“Through the re-development route one can get land for a fraction of the price,” Aggarwal said. “Fresh land in south Mumbai is anyway not available.”
Mumbai has almost 20,000 buildings that are old and crumbling, he said. Developers such as Orbit buy out the residents or offer them alternative homes as per the municipality rules to get the necessary land for luxury homes.
Mobile phones transform life of India’s poor
Before he got a mobile phone seven years ago, Vijay Navle, a small Mumbai fish trader, spent much of his time and scant income travelling on buses and trains.
Every day, he would make the five-hour round trip to visit fishermen living on the Arabian Sea on the north of the city to see if they had caught any of the prawns and large fish that he sells to exporters at south Mumbai’s Sassoon Dock.
Indian on his mobile phone
Tech trend: a growing number of Indians have mobile phones
EDITOR’S CHOICE
China’s hinterland picks up baton - Jan-18
FT series: Building Brics - Jan-18
Video: Stephen Green on Asia’s rise - Jan-18
Join the debate: Brics consumers - Jan-19
Russian appetite for bling put to the test - Jan-18
James Kynge: China turns inward for future growth - Jan-18
Today, like a growing number of Indians, rich and poor, Mr Navle and the fishermen have mobile phones. Fishermen call him when they catch something and he arranges the pick-up and delivery to customers by phone.
“I can immediately inform my customers that there’s a big catch coming in fresh and we get a better price for it,” says Mr Navle.
For hundreds of millions of people across India such as Mr Navle, the rise of mobile telephony has led to changes in their lives as profound as the advent of the fixed-line home telephone was for rich consumers in the west.
Aside from television, the mobile handset is the first contact for many Indians with the world of sophisticated consumer electronics and their first connection with the organized modern economy. And with third-generation cellular services on the horizon, the next phase of this consumer revolution is poised to begin with the spread of the mobile internet to India’s masses.
“The mobile phone is the first piece of technology that so many people in India will have owned, it’s their first communications device and it’s their first [mobile] entertainment device,” says Kunal Bajaj, managing director with consultancy BDA in New Delhi.
The latent demand for modern communications, coupled with low tariffs of less than one US cent per minute, has turned India into the world’s fastest growing large mobile market by user numbers.
The total subscriber base reached 506m users by the end of November, with 17.7m additions in that month alone, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India reported.
These numbers have drawn the interest of the world’s largest companies, battling to wrest market share from domestic leaders, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications.
The fierce competition has led operators to introduce a myriad of low-cost data services for consumers and “micro-businessmen”.
Vodafone has introduced a service allowing urban consumers to make purchases such as film tickets, using voice and the keypads of their phones.
Reuters operates a short messaging service, Reuters Market Light, that provides farmers with instant crop price and weather updates. Others provide music-on-demand, ringtones and music video downloads that work even on low-bandwidth second-generation networks. These services lack the sophistication of those designed for smartphones in rich countries but can be ingenious in their simplicity.
“In states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh you are finding huge amounts of activity around these types of [video] entertainment applications,” Mr Bajaj says, referring to two of India’s poorest states.
As these applications become commoditised, the industry is looking to 3G for growth. The government is expected to launch its long-delayed auction of spectrum for 3G this year.
With fixed-line internet penetration in India estimated at well under 10 per cent, 3G could provide the first contact with the world wide web for many Indians. For it to be successful, however, it will have to overcome many hurdles, such as the need for cheaper smartphones. Those such as the iPhone are unaffordable to the Indian masses.
Tom Levine, head of telecoms practice at Allen & Overy, the law firm, likens the situation to India’s car market, in which the Tata group has launched the world’s cheapest car, the Nano. “The Nano, as we all know, is what India’s really all about, not Mercedes Benzes,” he says.
To aid the spread of 3G, operators will also have to come up with more commercially useful applications for lower-income people, many of whom are illiterate. Examples include enabling online money transfers or crop pricing and trading for farmers. “The question is going to be how, using the greater data speeds available with 3G, you can make something that is useful for people who can’t read,” Mr Levine says.
While mobiles can change lives for the better, advances in technology can also be a double-edged sword, as fish trader Mr Navle is discovering.
The mobile initially gave him an edge. But recently, his income has declined as customers have begun calling around to get a better price. “Earlier, they would deal only with me. I would have dedicated customers. Now they are calling other traders as well,” he says.
Every day, he would make the five-hour round trip to visit fishermen living on the Arabian Sea on the north of the city to see if they had caught any of the prawns and large fish that he sells to exporters at south Mumbai’s Sassoon Dock.
Indian on his mobile phone
Tech trend: a growing number of Indians have mobile phones
EDITOR’S CHOICE
China’s hinterland picks up baton - Jan-18
FT series: Building Brics - Jan-18
Video: Stephen Green on Asia’s rise - Jan-18
Join the debate: Brics consumers - Jan-19
Russian appetite for bling put to the test - Jan-18
James Kynge: China turns inward for future growth - Jan-18
Today, like a growing number of Indians, rich and poor, Mr Navle and the fishermen have mobile phones. Fishermen call him when they catch something and he arranges the pick-up and delivery to customers by phone.
“I can immediately inform my customers that there’s a big catch coming in fresh and we get a better price for it,” says Mr Navle.
For hundreds of millions of people across India such as Mr Navle, the rise of mobile telephony has led to changes in their lives as profound as the advent of the fixed-line home telephone was for rich consumers in the west.
Aside from television, the mobile handset is the first contact for many Indians with the world of sophisticated consumer electronics and their first connection with the organized modern economy. And with third-generation cellular services on the horizon, the next phase of this consumer revolution is poised to begin with the spread of the mobile internet to India’s masses.
“The mobile phone is the first piece of technology that so many people in India will have owned, it’s their first communications device and it’s their first [mobile] entertainment device,” says Kunal Bajaj, managing director with consultancy BDA in New Delhi.
The latent demand for modern communications, coupled with low tariffs of less than one US cent per minute, has turned India into the world’s fastest growing large mobile market by user numbers.
The total subscriber base reached 506m users by the end of November, with 17.7m additions in that month alone, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India reported.
These numbers have drawn the interest of the world’s largest companies, battling to wrest market share from domestic leaders, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications.
The fierce competition has led operators to introduce a myriad of low-cost data services for consumers and “micro-businessmen”.
Vodafone has introduced a service allowing urban consumers to make purchases such as film tickets, using voice and the keypads of their phones.
Reuters operates a short messaging service, Reuters Market Light, that provides farmers with instant crop price and weather updates. Others provide music-on-demand, ringtones and music video downloads that work even on low-bandwidth second-generation networks. These services lack the sophistication of those designed for smartphones in rich countries but can be ingenious in their simplicity.
“In states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh you are finding huge amounts of activity around these types of [video] entertainment applications,” Mr Bajaj says, referring to two of India’s poorest states.
As these applications become commoditised, the industry is looking to 3G for growth. The government is expected to launch its long-delayed auction of spectrum for 3G this year.
With fixed-line internet penetration in India estimated at well under 10 per cent, 3G could provide the first contact with the world wide web for many Indians. For it to be successful, however, it will have to overcome many hurdles, such as the need for cheaper smartphones. Those such as the iPhone are unaffordable to the Indian masses.
Tom Levine, head of telecoms practice at Allen & Overy, the law firm, likens the situation to India’s car market, in which the Tata group has launched the world’s cheapest car, the Nano. “The Nano, as we all know, is what India’s really all about, not Mercedes Benzes,” he says.
To aid the spread of 3G, operators will also have to come up with more commercially useful applications for lower-income people, many of whom are illiterate. Examples include enabling online money transfers or crop pricing and trading for farmers. “The question is going to be how, using the greater data speeds available with 3G, you can make something that is useful for people who can’t read,” Mr Levine says.
While mobiles can change lives for the better, advances in technology can also be a double-edged sword, as fish trader Mr Navle is discovering.
The mobile initially gave him an edge. But recently, his income has declined as customers have begun calling around to get a better price. “Earlier, they would deal only with me. I would have dedicated customers. Now they are calling other traders as well,” he says.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
L&T to Borrow $4.4 Billion for Power Plants; May Buy Coalmines
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Larsen & Toubro Ltd., India’s biggest engineering company, may borrow as much as $4.4 billion to build a power-generation business over five years to ease shortages in the world’s second-fastest growing major economy.
Larsen’s new utility arm may borrow 80 percent of the 250 billion rupees ($5.5 billion) needed to build 5,000-megawatt of thermal power capacity, Ravi Uppal, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, L&T Power, said in a telephone interview from Mumbai on Jan. 15, without disclosing details of the funding plan.
“We want to support India’s power industry,” said the 57- year-old former head of global markets at ABB Ltd., the world’s largest builder of power networks. “Our engineering and construction capability can get going a major power scheme.” The plan “is part of a changing profile of L&T,” he said.
Power generation companies in India plan to almost double capacity in the five years to March 2012. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government has pledged 569.6 billion rupees to build plants and transmission lines to cut expected peak-hour shortages as high as 12.6 percent this year, according to the Central Electricity Authority.
Larsen is also looking to buy coalmines in Indonesia and Australia, apart from fields in India, to fuel the mostly coal- fired capacity, Uppal said without giving details.
Manufacturing Experience
The parent company, which builds power plants on contract is looking to diversify into generation after it acquired the expertise to manufacture large boilers and turbines through a joint venture with Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Uppal said. The venture at Surat in western India is scheduled to begin producing boilers by April and turbines in June.
“With our joint venture with Mitsubishi we will become a mega manufacturing unit for boilers and turbines,” Uppal said. The unit, which will compete with Korean and Chinese suppliers, can produce 4,000 megawatts a year, he said.
L&T Power plans to use so-called supercritical technology to build its projects to cut sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions, he said.
Larsen may consider listing its power unit on Indian exchanges to help raise funds in the future, according to Uppal. The parent’s shares have more than doubled since last year compared with a 94 percent rise in India’s benchmark 30-share Sensitive Index.
The company has begun work on a 1,320-megawatt coal-fired plant at Rajapura in the state of Punjab. The company may complete raising loans for the project “very shortly,” Uppal said without giving details.
The project’s first phase of 660 megawatts will begin generation by the end of 2013, he said. The company is scouting for locations to build more projects and will bid to build large power projects capable of producing as much as 4,000 megawatts being auctioned by the Indian government, Uppal said.
The government plans to auction a total of nine ultra mega power projects, each of which can meet the electricity needs of 1 million middle-income Indian homes.
Larsen’s new utility arm may borrow 80 percent of the 250 billion rupees ($5.5 billion) needed to build 5,000-megawatt of thermal power capacity, Ravi Uppal, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, L&T Power, said in a telephone interview from Mumbai on Jan. 15, without disclosing details of the funding plan.
“We want to support India’s power industry,” said the 57- year-old former head of global markets at ABB Ltd., the world’s largest builder of power networks. “Our engineering and construction capability can get going a major power scheme.” The plan “is part of a changing profile of L&T,” he said.
Power generation companies in India plan to almost double capacity in the five years to March 2012. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government has pledged 569.6 billion rupees to build plants and transmission lines to cut expected peak-hour shortages as high as 12.6 percent this year, according to the Central Electricity Authority.
Larsen is also looking to buy coalmines in Indonesia and Australia, apart from fields in India, to fuel the mostly coal- fired capacity, Uppal said without giving details.
Manufacturing Experience
The parent company, which builds power plants on contract is looking to diversify into generation after it acquired the expertise to manufacture large boilers and turbines through a joint venture with Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Uppal said. The venture at Surat in western India is scheduled to begin producing boilers by April and turbines in June.
“With our joint venture with Mitsubishi we will become a mega manufacturing unit for boilers and turbines,” Uppal said. The unit, which will compete with Korean and Chinese suppliers, can produce 4,000 megawatts a year, he said.
L&T Power plans to use so-called supercritical technology to build its projects to cut sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions, he said.
Larsen may consider listing its power unit on Indian exchanges to help raise funds in the future, according to Uppal. The parent’s shares have more than doubled since last year compared with a 94 percent rise in India’s benchmark 30-share Sensitive Index.
The company has begun work on a 1,320-megawatt coal-fired plant at Rajapura in the state of Punjab. The company may complete raising loans for the project “very shortly,” Uppal said without giving details.
The project’s first phase of 660 megawatts will begin generation by the end of 2013, he said. The company is scouting for locations to build more projects and will bid to build large power projects capable of producing as much as 4,000 megawatts being auctioned by the Indian government, Uppal said.
The government plans to auction a total of nine ultra mega power projects, each of which can meet the electricity needs of 1 million middle-income Indian homes.
China Inflation May Quicken, Hurting Banks, Utilities, BNP Says
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- China’s inflation rate may accelerate to as high as 8 percent this year, hurting banking, utility and phone stocks, according to BNP Paribas.
“Investors want to be involved in anything that benefits” as inflation quickens, Erwin Sanft, head of China and Hong Kong research at BNP Paribas, said in a Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong today. “There’re only three sectors that don’t benefit, which are banks, telecoms and utilities.”
China’s central bank last week unexpectedly raised the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as a credit boom threatens to stoke inflation and create asset bubbles.
The nation’s consumer price index will rise 1.4 percent in December, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, following a 0.6 percent increase in November. The statistics bureau is scheduled to release monthly data on Jan. 21. China’s CPI will likely rise 3 to 3.5 percent this year, according to State Council Development Research Center researcher Ba Shusong, the Shanghai Securities News reported Dec. 14.
Inflation will likely accelerate to more than 5 percent before the middle of the year and may reach 8 percent in the second half, Sanft said.
China’s foreign-currency reserves rose 23 percent to $2.4 trillion, the world’s largest, the central bank said Jan. 15. Banks extended 379.8 billion yuan ($55.6 billion) of new loans in December, the central bank reported, more than the 310 billion yuan median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Banks lent an unprecedented 9.59 trillion yuan last year.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which rose 80 percent in 2009, has declined 1.6 percent this year, making China the worst-performing stock market in Asia.
“Investors want to be involved in anything that benefits” as inflation quickens, Erwin Sanft, head of China and Hong Kong research at BNP Paribas, said in a Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong today. “There’re only three sectors that don’t benefit, which are banks, telecoms and utilities.”
China’s central bank last week unexpectedly raised the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as a credit boom threatens to stoke inflation and create asset bubbles.
The nation’s consumer price index will rise 1.4 percent in December, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, following a 0.6 percent increase in November. The statistics bureau is scheduled to release monthly data on Jan. 21. China’s CPI will likely rise 3 to 3.5 percent this year, according to State Council Development Research Center researcher Ba Shusong, the Shanghai Securities News reported Dec. 14.
Inflation will likely accelerate to more than 5 percent before the middle of the year and may reach 8 percent in the second half, Sanft said.
China’s foreign-currency reserves rose 23 percent to $2.4 trillion, the world’s largest, the central bank said Jan. 15. Banks extended 379.8 billion yuan ($55.6 billion) of new loans in December, the central bank reported, more than the 310 billion yuan median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Banks lent an unprecedented 9.59 trillion yuan last year.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which rose 80 percent in 2009, has declined 1.6 percent this year, making China the worst-performing stock market in Asia.
Leading Index Probably Rose in December: U.S. Economy Preview
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The index of leading indicators probably rose in December for a ninth month, while home construction was little changed, indicating housing’s role in the U.S. expansion is waning, economists said before reports this week.
The Conference Board’s measure of the outlook for the next three to six months probably climbed 0.7 percent last month, according to the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the research group’s report Jan 21. The Commerce Department may report builders broke ground on 575,000 houses at an annual pace, up from 574,000 in November.
“The economy will stay on its recovery track, but it’s not going to be an easy or painless process,” said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Demand for new construction is very limited.”
Fewer firings, rising stock prices and Federal Reserve efforts to keep short-term interest rates low propelled the advance in the leading index and make it more likely consumers will keep spending. Housing starts, which jumped 24 percent from April to July as builders rushed to satisfy buyers taking advantage of a government credit, will probably cool in coming months until demand reemerges.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.8 percent last month, capping a 65 percent gain from a 12-year low on March 9 through December. The index is up 1.9 percent so far this month.
The rebound is helping repair the damage from the record $17.5 trillion plunge in household net worth since the recession started at the end of 2007 through last year’s first quarter.
Fewer Firings
Job losses are slowing. First-time claims for unemployment benefits averaged 460,000 a week in December, down from 481,000 the previous month. Claims peaked at 674,000 in late March 2009. The economy lost 85,000 jobs last month after adding 4,000 in November, according to Labor Department data.
Some companies are beginning to hire again. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., based in White Plains, New York, said Jan. 12 it plans to add about 6,000 jobs in the U.S. this year.
“After a year of hunkering down and cutting costs, companies are driving their top line again,” Frits van Paasschen, Starwood’s president and chief executive officer, said in a statement.
Americans will spend more in 2010 than previously estimated, economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg said. Purchases will grow 2 percent this year, the first gain since 2007 and up from a December estimate of 1.8 percent, according to the median forecast of 60 economists polled. The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, will expand 2.7 percent, the best performance in four years, the survey showed.
Housing Slows
Housing may be one area where Americans will be more circumspect. Sales of new houses dropped 11 percent in November, the month the government’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers was due to expire.
President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 extended the incentive and expanded it to include current homeowners in a bid to boost demand. The extension allows closings to occur by the end of June as long as contracts are signed by the end of April. Still, the measure may have pulled sales forward and could result in fewer purchases in coming months.
Building permits, a sign of future activity, may have dropped 1.5 percent to a 580,000 annual pace in December, the Commerce Department’s Jan. 20 report on housing starts may show, according to the survey median.
Slump from Record
At a 574,000 pace in November, housing starts were down 75 percent from the record 2.27 million reached in January 2006.
A report on Jan. 19 may show builders were less pessimistic this month. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index probably climbed to 17 from a six-month low of 16 in December, economists surveyed said. It would be the first gain in four months. Readings less than 50 signal that most respondents view conditions as poor.
A measure of wholesale prices will show the economy is improving without igniting inflation. Producer prices in December were unchanged after a 1.8 percent gain the prior month, according to the survey median before a Jan. 20 report from the Labor Department. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.1 percent, economists forecast.
Finally, a Fed survey may show manufacturing in the Philadelphia region grew at a slower pace in January after expanding by the most in more than four years the prior month, economists estimated before that Jan. 21 release.
The Conference Board’s measure of the outlook for the next three to six months probably climbed 0.7 percent last month, according to the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the research group’s report Jan 21. The Commerce Department may report builders broke ground on 575,000 houses at an annual pace, up from 574,000 in November.
“The economy will stay on its recovery track, but it’s not going to be an easy or painless process,” said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Demand for new construction is very limited.”
Fewer firings, rising stock prices and Federal Reserve efforts to keep short-term interest rates low propelled the advance in the leading index and make it more likely consumers will keep spending. Housing starts, which jumped 24 percent from April to July as builders rushed to satisfy buyers taking advantage of a government credit, will probably cool in coming months until demand reemerges.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.8 percent last month, capping a 65 percent gain from a 12-year low on March 9 through December. The index is up 1.9 percent so far this month.
The rebound is helping repair the damage from the record $17.5 trillion plunge in household net worth since the recession started at the end of 2007 through last year’s first quarter.
Fewer Firings
Job losses are slowing. First-time claims for unemployment benefits averaged 460,000 a week in December, down from 481,000 the previous month. Claims peaked at 674,000 in late March 2009. The economy lost 85,000 jobs last month after adding 4,000 in November, according to Labor Department data.
Some companies are beginning to hire again. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., based in White Plains, New York, said Jan. 12 it plans to add about 6,000 jobs in the U.S. this year.
“After a year of hunkering down and cutting costs, companies are driving their top line again,” Frits van Paasschen, Starwood’s president and chief executive officer, said in a statement.
Americans will spend more in 2010 than previously estimated, economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg said. Purchases will grow 2 percent this year, the first gain since 2007 and up from a December estimate of 1.8 percent, according to the median forecast of 60 economists polled. The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, will expand 2.7 percent, the best performance in four years, the survey showed.
Housing Slows
Housing may be one area where Americans will be more circumspect. Sales of new houses dropped 11 percent in November, the month the government’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers was due to expire.
President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 extended the incentive and expanded it to include current homeowners in a bid to boost demand. The extension allows closings to occur by the end of June as long as contracts are signed by the end of April. Still, the measure may have pulled sales forward and could result in fewer purchases in coming months.
Building permits, a sign of future activity, may have dropped 1.5 percent to a 580,000 annual pace in December, the Commerce Department’s Jan. 20 report on housing starts may show, according to the survey median.
Slump from Record
At a 574,000 pace in November, housing starts were down 75 percent from the record 2.27 million reached in January 2006.
A report on Jan. 19 may show builders were less pessimistic this month. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index probably climbed to 17 from a six-month low of 16 in December, economists surveyed said. It would be the first gain in four months. Readings less than 50 signal that most respondents view conditions as poor.
A measure of wholesale prices will show the economy is improving without igniting inflation. Producer prices in December were unchanged after a 1.8 percent gain the prior month, according to the survey median before a Jan. 20 report from the Labor Department. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.1 percent, economists forecast.
Finally, a Fed survey may show manufacturing in the Philadelphia region grew at a slower pace in January after expanding by the most in more than four years the prior month, economists estimated before that Jan. 21 release.
In Senate Race, Massachusetts Bucks a Political Stereotype
MARLBOROUGH, Mass. — Angela Grenham, 50, was raised a Massachusetts Democrat — “We had the crucifix and the J.F.K. sign,” she recalled — and voted for a Democrat for president as recently as 2000, when she supported Al Gore.
But this weekend she stood on a street corner here in the heart of Boston’s politically unpredictable western suburbs holding up a sign for the Republican running to fill the seat long held by Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Scott Brown, who has vowed to stop the Democratic health care bill in its tracks.
Cars and pickup trucks honked their approval as they sped by. Ms. Grenham proudly announced that a group of rivals holding up signs for the Democratic candidate in Tuesday’s special election, Martha Coakley, had given up and left the other corners of the intersection.
“The response was not great for them,” said Ms. Grenham, who changed her registration to independent several years ago after she grew more conservative.
Voters like Ms. Grenham have helped make this crucial race too close to call, endangering the Democrats’ 60-vote majority in the Senate and President Obama’s health care overhaul. President Obama came to Boston on Sunday in hopes of rescuing Ms. Coakley’s faltering candidacy. “Understand what’s at stake here, Massachusetts,” Mr. Obama said.
Marlborough is the kind of place where many Massachusetts elections are won and lost these days. Democrats outnumber Republicans by three to one in the state, but independent voters now outnumber them both: a majority of the state’s voters are no longer members of either party. And the independent vote is particularly strong in places like Marlborough, a small city in the crescent-shaped swath of suburbs surrounding Boston, whose swing voters have tipped the balance one way of the other in several recent statewide elections. Those voters could prove crucial again on Tuesday.
The lingering economic downturn and unease about the Democrats’ muscular return to government power have left many voters here in a sour mood.
“It’s just tax, tax, tax, and I think the people are just getting sick of it,” said Richard Gasparoni, 57, an independent who was holding up a Brown sign at another intersection here along Main Street.
Mr. Gasparoni, who has lived here all his life and works as a tax manager for a medical device company, said that he had never campaigned for anyone before, but that he was moved to act because he was upset about the state’s decision to raise its sales tax, leery of the health bill in Congress, and fed up with the scandals that have involved several Democratic state lawmakers.
“I think people have had enough,” Mr. Gasparoni said.
States do not get much more Democratic than Massachusetts. Democrats hold every statewide office and control both houses of the legislature with lopsided majorities. The state’s entire Congressional delegation is Democratic.
But Massachusetts does not always live up to its national stereotype as a bastion of liberalism. Yes, it was the only state to vote for George McGovern for president in 1972, but it also voted twice for Ronald Reagan. Democratic enrollment has fallen from 48 percent of the electorate in 1984 to 37 percent last year. And thanks largely to votes from independent voters in the suburbs, Massachusetts was led by Republican governors for 16 straight years, until Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat, broke the streak with his 2006 landslide election. Now Mr. Patrick is dealing with slipping approval ratings as he seeks re-election.
In tough times like these, the political hegemony of the Democrats has its risks.
“The Democrats are controlling both Washington and Beacon Hill,” said Joseph Malone, a Republican who served as the state treasurer during the 1990s. “So if I’m angry as hell about what’s going on with our government, who am I going to throw out? Who am I going to vote against? That’s a big part of this race.”
Several political analysts said that it was still possible — some said it was even likely — that Ms. Coakley, the state’s attorney general, would win on Tuesday, particularly if President Obama’s visit helps turn out the Democratic faithful in strongholds like Boston and if Ms. Coakley is able to hold down Mr. Brown’s margins among independents.
But independent, suburban voters in several other parts of the Northeast voted Republican in November after trending Democratic for years, ousting Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, a Democrat, and unexpectedly returning Nassau County, on Long Island, to Republican rule.
The possibility of a voter revolt in Massachusetts took many Democrats by surprise: local officials were overwhelmingly re-elected last year. Some worry now that they were too complacent in this race. Special elections like this one turnouts, but the January blizzard of campaign commercials — it is not unusual to see three or four in a row during local newscasts — has whipped up interest in the race.
Many of the ads are negative — the successive spots sometimes sound like a tit-for-tat argument — and a sizable portion of them are being paid for by interest groups trying to either pass or block the health care bill.
Randy Scott, one of the owners of the Main Street Café, said that there had not been this much politics discussed at his counters in years. “There’s a lot more buzz,” he said.
Several independent voters said that they wanted to elect Mr. Brown to block the health care bill, which they derided as full of deals for special interests — though several said that they thought Massachusetts’ law extending near-universal coverage, one of the models for the national bill, had been largely a success.
“It’s not perfect, but why should we have to pay again when we have health care?” said Ms. Grenham, who works as a physical therapist.
Massachusetts was not hit quite as hard as other parts of the country during the recession — its unemployment rate in November was 8.8 percent, below the national rate of 10 percent — but there has been no shortage of pain and economic anxiety. Voters have grown restive: a poll released last week by the Suffolk University Political Research Center found that 55 percent of respondents said that the state was on the wrong track, up from 44 percent in April 2007.
Sitting over his coffee at the counter of the Main Street Café, Michael Corbett, 64, an independent, said that he was supporting Mr. Brown based largely on national security issues. Mr. Corbett, a veteran, was already upset by the Obama administration’s plans to try some suspected terrorists in civilian courts; he said he was appalled when Ms. Coakley suggested in a debate last week that the terrorists were gone from Afghanistan.
At his wife’s beauty parlor in Framingham, he said, a clientele that had largely supported President Obama last year was now uneasy. And he said that as he drove through towns where Obama-Biden lawn signs sprouted just over a year ago, he now sees signs supporting Brown.
“That doesn’t mean that they’re going to get out and vote,” said Mr. Corbett, who has a business selling industrial maintenance and repair supplies. “But the signs are out there. It’s certainly a difference. The Obama-Biden signs are gone, and I just think the people are sick of this.”
But this weekend she stood on a street corner here in the heart of Boston’s politically unpredictable western suburbs holding up a sign for the Republican running to fill the seat long held by Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Scott Brown, who has vowed to stop the Democratic health care bill in its tracks.
Cars and pickup trucks honked their approval as they sped by. Ms. Grenham proudly announced that a group of rivals holding up signs for the Democratic candidate in Tuesday’s special election, Martha Coakley, had given up and left the other corners of the intersection.
“The response was not great for them,” said Ms. Grenham, who changed her registration to independent several years ago after she grew more conservative.
Voters like Ms. Grenham have helped make this crucial race too close to call, endangering the Democrats’ 60-vote majority in the Senate and President Obama’s health care overhaul. President Obama came to Boston on Sunday in hopes of rescuing Ms. Coakley’s faltering candidacy. “Understand what’s at stake here, Massachusetts,” Mr. Obama said.
Marlborough is the kind of place where many Massachusetts elections are won and lost these days. Democrats outnumber Republicans by three to one in the state, but independent voters now outnumber them both: a majority of the state’s voters are no longer members of either party. And the independent vote is particularly strong in places like Marlborough, a small city in the crescent-shaped swath of suburbs surrounding Boston, whose swing voters have tipped the balance one way of the other in several recent statewide elections. Those voters could prove crucial again on Tuesday.
The lingering economic downturn and unease about the Democrats’ muscular return to government power have left many voters here in a sour mood.
“It’s just tax, tax, tax, and I think the people are just getting sick of it,” said Richard Gasparoni, 57, an independent who was holding up a Brown sign at another intersection here along Main Street.
Mr. Gasparoni, who has lived here all his life and works as a tax manager for a medical device company, said that he had never campaigned for anyone before, but that he was moved to act because he was upset about the state’s decision to raise its sales tax, leery of the health bill in Congress, and fed up with the scandals that have involved several Democratic state lawmakers.
“I think people have had enough,” Mr. Gasparoni said.
States do not get much more Democratic than Massachusetts. Democrats hold every statewide office and control both houses of the legislature with lopsided majorities. The state’s entire Congressional delegation is Democratic.
But Massachusetts does not always live up to its national stereotype as a bastion of liberalism. Yes, it was the only state to vote for George McGovern for president in 1972, but it also voted twice for Ronald Reagan. Democratic enrollment has fallen from 48 percent of the electorate in 1984 to 37 percent last year. And thanks largely to votes from independent voters in the suburbs, Massachusetts was led by Republican governors for 16 straight years, until Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat, broke the streak with his 2006 landslide election. Now Mr. Patrick is dealing with slipping approval ratings as he seeks re-election.
In tough times like these, the political hegemony of the Democrats has its risks.
“The Democrats are controlling both Washington and Beacon Hill,” said Joseph Malone, a Republican who served as the state treasurer during the 1990s. “So if I’m angry as hell about what’s going on with our government, who am I going to throw out? Who am I going to vote against? That’s a big part of this race.”
Several political analysts said that it was still possible — some said it was even likely — that Ms. Coakley, the state’s attorney general, would win on Tuesday, particularly if President Obama’s visit helps turn out the Democratic faithful in strongholds like Boston and if Ms. Coakley is able to hold down Mr. Brown’s margins among independents.
But independent, suburban voters in several other parts of the Northeast voted Republican in November after trending Democratic for years, ousting Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, a Democrat, and unexpectedly returning Nassau County, on Long Island, to Republican rule.
The possibility of a voter revolt in Massachusetts took many Democrats by surprise: local officials were overwhelmingly re-elected last year. Some worry now that they were too complacent in this race. Special elections like this one turnouts, but the January blizzard of campaign commercials — it is not unusual to see three or four in a row during local newscasts — has whipped up interest in the race.
Many of the ads are negative — the successive spots sometimes sound like a tit-for-tat argument — and a sizable portion of them are being paid for by interest groups trying to either pass or block the health care bill.
Randy Scott, one of the owners of the Main Street Café, said that there had not been this much politics discussed at his counters in years. “There’s a lot more buzz,” he said.
Several independent voters said that they wanted to elect Mr. Brown to block the health care bill, which they derided as full of deals for special interests — though several said that they thought Massachusetts’ law extending near-universal coverage, one of the models for the national bill, had been largely a success.
“It’s not perfect, but why should we have to pay again when we have health care?” said Ms. Grenham, who works as a physical therapist.
Massachusetts was not hit quite as hard as other parts of the country during the recession — its unemployment rate in November was 8.8 percent, below the national rate of 10 percent — but there has been no shortage of pain and economic anxiety. Voters have grown restive: a poll released last week by the Suffolk University Political Research Center found that 55 percent of respondents said that the state was on the wrong track, up from 44 percent in April 2007.
Sitting over his coffee at the counter of the Main Street Café, Michael Corbett, 64, an independent, said that he was supporting Mr. Brown based largely on national security issues. Mr. Corbett, a veteran, was already upset by the Obama administration’s plans to try some suspected terrorists in civilian courts; he said he was appalled when Ms. Coakley suggested in a debate last week that the terrorists were gone from Afghanistan.
At his wife’s beauty parlor in Framingham, he said, a clientele that had largely supported President Obama last year was now uneasy. And he said that as he drove through towns where Obama-Biden lawn signs sprouted just over a year ago, he now sees signs supporting Brown.
“That doesn’t mean that they’re going to get out and vote,” said Mr. Corbett, who has a business selling industrial maintenance and repair supplies. “But the signs are out there. It’s certainly a difference. The Obama-Biden signs are gone, and I just think the people are sick of this.”
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